Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?
- Thread starter Gabfly1
- Start date
Quote from Cheese:
Every trade which is entered by a trader is based on a prediction that it will be liquidated at a profit. So logically is there any trader who is not predicting? Of course you can change the semantics and say that you are entering a trade expecting or anticipating or foretelling a successful exit at a profit - its still the same thing.
A market is technical so you can set up a statistical model with extremely high probability that forecasts the direction or large pattern of the day ahead. The question then is, to what degree does this help and inform the player?
Capturing volatility does need to be prediction. Anyone with half a brain stays well clear of predicting.
define time frame
Using spy options I can predict ranges for the month within 10-20 points 75 - 80 % of the time.
Using spy options I can predict ranges for the month within 10-20 points 75 - 80 % of the time.
I read from your statement the meaning you intended. I did not focus on the word trader but on the words prediction and profit.
Here is what you stated:
I do not believe it is a matter of semantics for two reasons: (1) your statement implies that the predicting-betting paradigm which abounds in the trading literature, courses, seminars, etc., is the only one available to a trader; and (2) it leaves out traders who purport to trade to make a profit but actually want to be proven right or get a thrill of some sort from taking risks.
It is possible that the OP has not had a lot of experience making money.
A perosn may be concerned with predicting and it conscequences up to a certain point. Another way of looking at the future is to just note what is coming on the fhorizon and use the price and time as milestones that define basic intervals.
Often it is possible to size up the situration and put in the milestones for the next year.
The order of events is fairly well determined but puttin in the locations sometimes requires being a little vague or just putting in the zone and letting time pass for it to harden up dimensionally speaking.
most active traders who deal with market capacities mark out the trading sevral tradesa ahead. Itdoesn't have anything to do with predicting, howevr; it is just good practice to have all you trades set up in advance and let the futre come into the present.
In another thread recently you expressed amazement at another person knowldege abou how being in the market all the time is a new possibility for you. Actually as you expressed it is was not a possibility ofr any one at all. Google gyration to find where you were at that time.
you are just stuck on the path looking at things that others do and know about and you think that the path you are on is leading nowhere in particular. as a bystandader for you, it is like looking at a movie you paid admission to to be entertained.
If you look at big money, you may notice that their capital is in the market all of the time. some day you will wonder why investorsput their capital in markets. they hve a reason it turns out. they do not see things and react to them. they are following processes that you cannot see or understand because you mind is only filled with your life experience and the environment you are stuck in at thsi point.
It is fairly humorous to watch you pop in and out of places with no understanding of anything.
A perosn may be concerned with predicting and it conscequences up to a certain point. Another way of looking at the future is to just note what is coming on the fhorizon and use the price and time as milestones that define basic intervals.
Often it is possible to size up the situration and put in the milestones for the next year.
The order of events is fairly well determined but puttin in the locations sometimes requires being a little vague or just putting in the zone and letting time pass for it to harden up dimensionally speaking.
most active traders who deal with market capacities mark out the trading sevral tradesa ahead. Itdoesn't have anything to do with predicting, howevr; it is just good practice to have all you trades set up in advance and let the futre come into the present.
In another thread recently you expressed amazement at another person knowldege abou how being in the market all the time is a new possibility for you. Actually as you expressed it is was not a possibility ofr any one at all. Google gyration to find where you were at that time.
you are just stuck on the path looking at things that others do and know about and you think that the path you are on is leading nowhere in particular. as a bystandader for you, it is like looking at a movie you paid admission to to be entertained.
If you look at big money, you may notice that their capital is in the market all of the time. some day you will wonder why investorsput their capital in markets. they hve a reason it turns out. they do not see things and react to them. they are following processes that you cannot see or understand because you mind is only filled with your life experience and the environment you are stuck in at thsi point.
It is fairly humorous to watch you pop in and out of places with no understanding of anything.