Do you believe you can predict how far a market will go within a given time frame?
- Thread starter Gabfly1
- Start date
I'm not quite sure how to interpret your attachment. Are you predicting a specific price within a prescribed period of time? (EDIT: okay, I see that you are attempting to predict the day's HLC.)
Also, I note that your probability distribution of projected price (or direction, I'm not sure which) has second decimal specificity. Reminds me of the old joke about the definition of a calculator: an instrument that allows you to take two seat-of-the-pants estimates, multiply them, and get accuracy to the 8th decimal point.
Yes, but not exactly.
It's all relative. A 5 min signal will generate a smaller bounce, than a 1 hr signal.
Also, depends on session volatility. From one day to the next. So it's relative to time frame, and relative to market context for that day. Still, none of it is precise. Just estimates of where it "should" go +/- 30%.
Of course you can predict. Check CL go to 82.92 this afternoon.
Yes
i use 4 techniques to target price and time movement
individually and/or collectively they are most often 100% correct, however
the price-time movement is IRREGULAR
being irregular means i don't expect to be correct 100% - it's a subjective
trading method, but i Know i'll be correct often enough to be profitable
'predict' is of course an emotive term but essentially every time anyone makes
a trade, simply by entering that trade they're 'predicting' the direction of the
market, even tho they may only have a vague idea - or hope of how far that
market will go within that timeframe
i use 4 techniques to target price and time movement
individually and/or collectively they are most often 100% correct, however
the price-time movement is IRREGULAR
being irregular means i don't expect to be correct 100% - it's a subjective
trading method, but i Know i'll be correct often enough to be profitable
'predict' is of course an emotive term but essentially every time anyone makes
a trade, simply by entering that trade they're 'predicting' the direction of the
market, even tho they may only have a vague idea - or hope of how far that
market will go within that timeframe
Every trade which is entered by a trader is based on a prediction that it will be liquidated at a profit. So logically is there any trader who is not predicting? Of course you can change the semantics and say that you are entering a trade expecting or anticipating or foretelling a successful exit at a profit - its still the same thing.
A market is technical so you can set up a statistical model with extremely high probability that forecasts the direction or large pattern of the day ahead. The question then is, to what degree does this help and inform the player?
