Do you believe in the fractal nature of the stock market?

[Redneck]

Each moment in the market is unique. But every moment has similarities to previous moments, which indicates that price movement, while random from beat to beat, is not completely random over time.

You omitted and supplanted uncertainty - for random - they are not the same

Each tick...., the mkt..., PA...., each trade's outcome - is uncertain

However..., over time - an approach / methodology..., applied consistently..., with discipline and patience..., creating a repeatable routine

Results in consistent profitability

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Only thing random about trading..., is the trader (specifically their action's) - and unless he / she mitigates the behavior(s) creating those random actions - that's what (all) ya got

A random variable..., trying to operate in an uncertain environment

Traders who view the mkt / PA / trading as random - are peering into a mirror


RN

 

[Visaria]

Rubbish.

In intraday stock chart usually shows periods of intense activity and periods of low activity that are not matched in the same way by charts on higher time scales - daily, weekly etc.

Yes,i tend to agree with this. You would expect it. In intraday time frames, you have algos and hfts operating that do not operate in daily, weekly timeframes.

 

[Turveyd]

Errrr NO!!!

Stop using big words you don't fully understand " Fractal "

 

[Turveyd]

Rubbish.

In intraday stock chart usually shows periods of intense activity and periods of low activity that are not matched in the same way by charts on higher time scales - daily, weekly etc.

You don't get momentum, which carries the price over 20weeks strongly either, or even 20days.

But 20mins yes!

 

[J_Smith]

"A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop."

"Fractal patterns are extremely familiar, since nature is full of fractals. For instance: trees, rivers, coastlines, mountains, clouds, seashells, hurricanes, etc"

I believe in the fractal nature of the stock market.

It's important because it means the same patterns exist over all time patterns.

Once you learn some patterns, you can find them in all time frames.
So you can choose what time frame is the lowest risk for you.

You have it sorta right, but going the wrong way about it!

Think of a chart as nothing but people acting and reacting to what they think might happen next based on what they think they know about what has already happened !

If you truly believe that just by "spotting" patterns is going to make you rich, then I am sorry to tell you that you have acquired the wrong information, from whatever source/s!

Price movement across the different timeframes is complicated, as you are looking at lots of different people acting and reacting, each with different goals and objectives - so when price moves in one timeframe it can have a lot more significance than in another timeframe - i.e - a pattern in one timeframe has a different meaning in another timeframe, so they can not be looked at in the same context!

J_S

 

[dartmus]

Rubbish.

In intraday stock chart usually shows periods of intense activity and periods of low activity that are not matched in the same way by charts on higher time scales - daily, weekly etc.

Smaller intervals by their nature contain more randomness interspersed between non-randomness. But the same persistent non-randomness that forms the larger intervals also forms the non-randomness found within smaller intervals.

 

[dartmus]

You have it sorta right, but going the wrong way about it!

Think of a chart as nothing but people acting and reacting to what they think might happen next based on what they think they know about what has already happened !

If you truly believe that just by "spotting" patterns is going to make you rich, then I am sorry to tell you that you have acquired the wrong information, from whatever source/s!

Price movement across the different timeframes is complicated, as you are looking at lots of different people acting and reacting, each with different goals and objectives - so when price moves in one timeframe it can have a lot more significance than in another timeframe - i.e - a pattern in one timeframe has a different meaning in another timeframe, so they can not be looked at in the same context!

J_S

View attachment 158555 View attachment 158556

Regarding only trading with the higher timeframe trend. What do you mean where your picture says... Trades with the HTF trend do tend to work better, but trends do end, so it's necessary to read trend structure?

How can I read the trend structure?

 

[baro-san]

One's orderly structure is another's randomness

Here there are a bunch of charts, annotated by different traders, that show the same tradeable pattern (all 5 min ES).

[/QUOTE]

 

[trickshot]

The market is definitely not fractal. A very strong downtrend on a 1 min chart that looks like a crash might actually only show up as a blip (minor reaction) on a weekly chart. One has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

 

[ETcallhome]

I've noticed when you look at a daily chart over 6 months, there tends to be up days interspersed with down days.