Do We Need Indicators?

wrbtrader said:
I agree and I don't use indicators.

Yet, the fact remains there are some traders that understand that "lagging aspect" and are able to use it to their advantage. Just keep in mind that their use of indicators isn't the only thing they're using. Thus, I suspect their profits may be due to other components of their trading plan (e.g. money management).
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SCAMMER THAT NEVER SLEEPS
 
BOC said:
Do We Need Indicators? Or does price already show us everything we need to know?

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/143105519/Indicator%202....

On this chart: Keltner bands, Wave Volume, Volume, MACD.

Consider price structure and MACD A to B. Looking at price, at A there is a breakdown from a top consolidation, a H&S, then from A to B a nice, steady downtrend. Drilling in on the MACD, from A to C it is sharply down to significant lows, confirmation; from C to D MACD remains below the 0-line but is mostly flat, divergence. Now, considering price, we can see the same momentum structure from which the MACD is calculated: From A to C there are much wider spreads down overall than from C to D and A/C goes much deeper in the channel (trend) than does C/D, a more shallow swing that stays in the upper-channel on those narrow spreads. MACD is, here, in a sense, redundant.

From D to B, another nice price downswing, MACD remains pretty much flat with a very slight downward bias, a divergence. Which can also be seen clearly in the price action: From D and at E are deep reactions (in context) up, affecting downward momentum; then at B a wide spread with a long lower tail closing nearer the high. Note again here how the downtrend stays in the upper-half of the channel from C-ish to B.

But I still like MACD on this setting, because it shows me an overall glimpse of what price is doing piece-by-piece. In a sense, it's redundant, but from another perspective, it shows the obvious more obviously.

Now consider Wave Volume. C/D we see high, possibly climatic swing volume, however note, again, the relatively narrow spreads. There is no climatic price action, bar-wise. But, interestingly, D/B there is higher individual volume while wave volume declines. So I think Wave Volume is unique and useful as an indicator, at least vs individual volume. Price does indeed move in waves and this indicator may show us something about the force of the move that may be not evident in price action or corresponding bar volume.

Keltner Bands. Looking at the A/B downtrend consider the bands vs the drawn channel, which is initially drawn A/F/G. Note how accurate the channel is, with price staying (almost every close) in the parallel upper-channel from G-ish to the breakout following B, that low at major long-term S/R (purple line) and the close sitting on that mid-line. The trend channel shows strength in the weakness of the downtrend. Conversely, the Keltner Band shows another scenario - weakness in the weakness - as price rides the lower half of the band with resistance at the middle MA, confirming the downtrend. B springs the outer-band.

So I think the Keltner Bands may be useful as they give a perspective that may not show up through drawn channels alone. (Possibly this is simply because it's a longer timeframe?) I'm not sure yet.
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https://www.dropbox.com/home?preview=EURUSD+March.jpg

This such a beautiful base. It is also a continuation of the analysis from my previous post. There we saw some strength in the downtrend from A to B as most of it is in the upper-channel (drawn 123) and at B there has been declining wave volume on mostly tight candle bodies, then the low at B a wide-spread up bar closing at the high with a long lower tail that springs both the mid-channel line and the bottom Keltner band, as well as longer-term price support at the purple line. A convergence of support.

From here there is a sharp rally to C with no pullback, on good spreads mostly closing near their highs, with only one down bar, an almost perfect neutral doji, great wave volume, with strong momentum via MACD (though, as I pointed out in my previous analysis, the momentum shift is evident via price behavior), meeting resistance smack at the upper Keltner band and a high-volume area at 2/3ish. The strength of this deep rally is a possible change of character in the trend.

However, there is a quick reversal to D, on generally wide spreads down, good momentum, but declining wave volume. At D we have both the widest spread down bar for quite some time, closing on the low, as well as then the widest spread up bar in some time, closing on the high, wiping out that previous down bar, springing the purple support line and the Keltner band, that is also a shortening of the thrust.

Here the base forms, D to 5, with C the first outer-boundary and 456 a mini, clumsy H&S. The reaction to E is relatively sharp, wiping out the D to 5 rally in half the time. Note D breaks the bottom Keltner band, again, 456 cannot get to the upper-band, E back to the bottom band.

The low at E, well, how do you want to interpret it? In realtime? I personally prefer a spring. Springs are also called shakeouts, because that's what they do, they shakeout weak hands. Here that doesn't happen. But it turns out to be a strong low, as price doesn't stick around, but almost immediately rallies well to F, on wide spreads closing near the highs on strong volume, wiping out that previous reaction in, yes, half the time again. Here, contrast the wider candle bodies of the EF rally to those of the 6E reaction. BDE might also be considered an awkward reverse H&S.

The rally to F finds resistance at the range high and the upper Keltner band, upthrusting both on a very wide down bar closing on the low with a longer upper tail. This is the first time price has hit the upper-band since C.

The reaction to G is significant. A classic base starts with high volatility - wider spreads and swings - D to 5, 5 to E, E to F - as it comes off the previous trend. Then it settles down, narrower spreads and candle bodies and dojis, tighter swings. Compare FG - especially the final bars following the outside down bar in the middle of the leg - to the bars of those previous swings. FG takes much longer to complete than the previous upswing EF and it's a shallow retracement. Momentum has waned, confirmed by a flat MACD. Wave volume is high, effort vs reward. G finds support at the longer-term purple support line and is the second higher-low, a test of E, unable to reach the lower Keltner band for the first time since the downtrend began. One might have taken a position on the close of the relatively wide-spread up bar closing near the high just following the low at G, with a stop below the DE lows.
 
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lylec305 said:
Like I said "indicators lag the markets". It's what you do with historical info that counts. The 50 dma is based on previous 50 days. It's traders perception for the following days. No one can predict the movement in the future accurately. A spin on Yogi Berra - Most may get it right, the other 50% be on the other side. Another, Yogi Berra says it again "The future ain’t what it used to be". He's such a futurist lol....
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I some times get him mixed up with Yogi Bear + boo boo-LOL-LOL Don't have to use a 50dma or 55mph speed limit signs, but both can be helpful-not a prediction. Good post/points LYL
 
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