Do Trendlines work?

Sorry man!!!

I know you know. Just felt a need to post during the lull.

So are we going to rally into the 4th of July?

I think the slide is lack of buying not active selling.
 
Quote from easyrider:

Jack

In an earlier post on this thread you said:

[Then as money is made by trading the long diagonal of the parallelogram, at the end of the long diagonal the next trend begins. You have all the points required to draw the next trend channel by the time the price leaves the prior channel.]

Im still having problems with this simple thing so you can see how far behind I am. I see where you have point one at the end of the long diagonal but how do you have the other two points before the price leaves the channel? Could you please post an illustration. I usually cannot find 2 and 3 until after price has left the channel.
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Use the chart that duard posted just aftr this post that you made.

The FTT is the last clue you need for confirmation. The FTT is point 3 of the 1, 2, 3.

Using some "hold and reverse" thinking, you get to point 1. It is "yet another chance to draw in the long diagonal".

Lets further develop the setting and the opportunity with a few "what ifs" directed at the monitoring opportunity that any one has.

Before going to this serial process step by step, you already know of the sweeps of coarse medium and fine. I'll go through the "what ifs" and you think along with me considering that the the "what ifs" are, in fact, obtainable by anyone as a reasoning process carried out to improve effectiveness and efficiency.

"What if" there was a channel for intermediate term and long term also on the chart? this would mean that the channels being used for making money are in an envelop that is of a longer term duration. Thus there would be an "economic" context for the possible ranging of trading channels.

As an aside this would also give a context or he advet of possible intermediate or long term shifts. these events are where "home runs" are accidentally hit by some people.

"What if" there was a line or two that depicted the contemporary R and S on the chart as well. Again this reinforces what i just typed above.

Now we go to several more focussed money making "what ifs."

"What if" both of the market variables were shown on the chart? You would see the connection to volume and the amount required to move the trend to higher new highs. This is a momentum measure for some. Each time the long diagonal is established it happens just when aditional volume is unable to push price to new highs.

Once this happens belatedly, in a short while, we know we missed the last real new high at the highest volume so far. So by plotting volume and watching it along with price, we get to "see" more.

We could "see" a lot more too. by reasoning we try to look to the correct place to "see" more.

Duard's graph and the additionas we will make to it will complete giving us all we need to see.

You can also notice that I am giving back testers a list of this to incorporate in this software programs and it is anything but intuitive. I say this to head off a lot of BS that will be coming down the pipe sooner or later.

We now have a major trend viewpoint that stems from how a trend continues and gets to a point price volumewise where it is tough for the trend to continue. three levels of data collecting on three fractals so far and the lines of the channels just seem to come into the picture as the trend goes to where they reside in price. We also have volume levels that are being approached that are carried forward from their last occurance as rays. volume rays are easy to begin to put into backtesting even though they have been left out up to this point.

Okay. Now we are looking at reversing to make money on the new trend when it starts.

So far we have a point 3 confirmation right in the middle of the prior trend. It tells us we should reverse now (obviously) but the question is how to reverse on point 1.

We did see a new higher volume would not drive the price further and that the volume was of the nature of past volumes that occurred on trends peaking. This collection of prime variable indicators is cool and perhaps what is known in the trade as "sufficiency". Lets go to more "sufficiency" as a technique for being "most" effective and efficient.

"What if" we added a few leading indicators of price.

"what if" we watched the next faster trading fractal than the one we are trading on.

Both of these will help.

The next "What ifs" get more precision in the timing around point 1. We add these to take a little more money out of the market twice. By leaving better and entering better.

Here it is hard to use duard's chart because it is sloppy. By unsloppying it we do get several things straight though.

as you know i segment the trends by taking into account volatility changes. This means that I segment the left line which is opposite the trendline. There are several plaes to do that. Considerit done.

now we look at end effects of market days. The close and open shown do continue the trend to what is known as a "climax" run. Merchant will be thinking of sex of course as usual. when a phase of market operations comes to an end in a context of some sort, then the final peaking price occurs. read about it because that is how the top price was hit. this is just a passing comment, though.

The close and then synch occurred. the high volume (not shown) could not move price anyfurther.

back to the first set of unexplained "What ifs". On the next fastest fractal you get to see the whole story told so far occur in a microcosm as a narative of the right to left traverse of the channel even going through a close and opening.

at the end of the traverse you hit the higher volatility left line. On this fractal a"pulse of volume cannot push price past the left line. this volume added to the highest volume doen't get price to move higher until the last spike on a burst of volume. (The Climax).

All of this is what makes pint 1 one the new channel the point 1.

By reading the medium and the fine sweep elements, in other words, you get to see how everything being a reinfocement for moving price further, fails. The operating point of the market has just become blocked on all fronts but one.

REVERSE


After that you have a fixed long diagonal for that trend.

Point 2 occurs. Then FTT forms point 3. And you have a profitable reverse and no chance of not making money. It just won't go back into losing territory.

One of the "what ifs" deserves mentioning quite strongly. It is the faster fractal gausian R2R after the peaking price on the trading fractal. It may hang inthere all the way across L to R on the trading fractal and still hang in there on the FTT path.

for long trends you are seeing B/R gaussians for most of the trending operation on the trading fractal. from the new point1 to the new point 3 it is murky at best. So when you come into these extreme P and V situations in a trend, it is time to REVERSE on point1 and trade from the viewpoint of a NEW trend instad of "holding" to the bitter end.

By the time you digest this you will "see" what I mean about how you can "see" endings starting with the mud in the fine and getting muddy in the medium and finally point 1 shows on the trading fractal.

Good inquiry. Thanks.

i know i left a lot out. as time passes you will have mental sequences of trends down. These will consciously surface as the sequences that lead to "what wasn't that".. Anticipating something that is neeed to take another trend sequencing lap fails to happen. The flag is up, the flag is waving, the flag is down...REVERSE.
 
so What if duard annotated completed charts?

there ae 8 doublings of profitability on the equity curve. If that is not an incentive what is???
 
Quote from Grob109:

so What if duard annotated completed charts?

there ae 8 doublings of profitability on the equity curve. If that is not an incentive what is???
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equity curve means the equity that you are obtaining from profits and it has a slope related to effectivenebss and to efficiency of extracting capital from the markets
 
Thank you very much Jack. It is slowly coming together. I will have to go over this a few times but I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. This thread has some invaluable stuff in it for anybody who takes the time to study it.

P.s. I am getting pretty good at washes and am doing some "late reversals" not actually reversing at the top but entering shortly after the top is made on lower volume and the trendline is broken on the faster fractal. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt but I seldom lose any money on the ones that dont pan out.
 
Quote from Grob109:

so What if duard annotated completed charts?

there ae 8 doublings of profitability on the equity curve. If that is not an incentive what is???
More...

Jack,

Thanks.

It's all true. Difficult to implement but true.

Nothing like making all the reverses and profit taking orchestrated well so that at the end of the day you know you took as much money out of the market as possible.

More importantly my stress level has markedly decreased on my reversals into volume. Not intuitive really. It's almost counterintuitive. As far as backtesting and programming a box to do this stuff, good luck.


D.
 
Here's the closed chart for the day with further annotation of trades and why. Follow-up to lunchtime charts with great news the trades worked.

D.
 

Attachments

Jack. Thanks for the thought. However, if I could trade as well as I can screw I wouldn't be working for a living. And you know quite well that what you just described isn't testable because it is too complex. One is tempted to say that what isn't testable can't work, but that is a stretch, as I have things that work that aren't testable. Mike.

(BTW, my Tukson gig failed to materialize, so no street tacos for you and the boys.)
 
Jack

I know I am pushing my luck here but one never knows so.... I am sorting and compiling posts and most of the blanks are filled but there is one area that I would really like to explore. This was posted in another excellent thread that came to a premature end for some reason so it was not followed up and I have not been able to find anything else that goes into it. Heres the quote:

[NOW is the place we oprate from and this context has associated with it the place you are at in the indicator sequences. we also will emphasize the aspects of making the indicators leading indicators by using their derivatives with respect to time.]

This last sentence really makes my mouth water. If you have gone into detail on this somewhere else could you please point me to it.
 
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