Well, neither one of them can spell.
Do Trendlines work?
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
Another example of the many ways lines can be drawn.
The one point to note is the LACK of appreciable selling since the pivot low on 5/13. There is a 6 hour low line drawn on the chart to demonstrate.
COT data and specialist data confirm. This is what lack of selling looks like. This am the price would drop sit and no downside volume. Then when no selling occurred during the pauses more upvolume push. This is the 7th day of this behavior.
The one point to note is the LACK of appreciable selling since the pivot low on 5/13. There is a 6 hour low line drawn on the chart to demonstrate.
COT data and specialist data confirm. This is what lack of selling looks like. This am the price would drop sit and no downside volume. Then when no selling occurred during the pauses more upvolume push. This is the 7th day of this behavior.
Quote from duard:
Thanks Duard...
An item note because I think your chart gives excellent context. I agree there would be slight differences in trendlines and this may be attributed to precisely where we are defining the beginnings and ends of trendlines. Nonetheless, at least our charts are agreeing about what is in the cards for the next several days, a short leg. I've attached a chart so that you may compare yours with mine. Apparently, I am an ET loser for reasons that I can neither spell nor contribute substance to this thread since I tend to post without constructing an essay format that has been proofread by a proficient english professor of their choosing. No matter. I'm sure that there is more substance in a constructive post than in a detraction.
Although I prefer unfiltered volume bars, presumably your VolumeMA works for you and that is ok. I attached my chart also to point out a fractal difference. A good number in here find fractals to be FOS. OK, so be it, that is your orientation. Presumably to some, trendlines are FOS. OK, so be it, that is your orientation. For some of you hopefully, day after day, you may be starting to see some consistency. I know I am and I am probably alot newer to this arena than most here. SO why did I choose the daily chart for the context? It is because, it is a chart in which I find the same traversal features that are apparent in my intraday channel trendlines. You'll notice that several of the bumps/humps in the legs of your channel appear as stalls in my channel since they are filtered out by the longer period bar... Take a look if your interested.
Hopefully, my chart will be of interest. Otherwise, throw it into the "looser" bin...
Kindest Regards...
Dude,
I couldn't care less if you can or can't spell "loser" or "looser", and quite frankly, the only thing thing that should concern you is the following:
"Are you consistently making money following your approach?"
My only question is this - would your trendlines/channels have taken the same (or very similar) form had they been drawn as the chart was playing itself out on the hard-right-edge?
Fair question me thinks...
I couldn't care less if you can or can't spell "loser" or "looser", and quite frankly, the only thing thing that should concern you is the following:
"Are you consistently making money following your approach?"
My only question is this - would your trendlines/channels have taken the same (or very similar) form had they been drawn as the chart was playing itself out on the hard-right-edge?
Fair question me thinks...
It should already be apparent that I don't care much for the thoughts of detractors when they are in detraction mode. However, I don't like when heresay is assumed about my post (ie. it is the post of a loser). I encourage everyone to just take a look and think as to weather or not value can be found in it. If not, fine. If so, fine (ie. see if there is something you can learn).
In any event, elaborate a little Equal so that I can address your q (ie. hard-right-edge?)... I update my channels continually... More specifically, I only update the resistance line because of Volume. This should be apparent in all of the charts I have posted.
Kindest Regards...
OK, how would you have traded this based on the information presented, as the information was unfolding before your eyes?
Where would trades be taken, not in hindsight, but again as the info was unfolding (i.e. on the hard right unkown edge of the chart)? How would you have revised your trading decisions? When did you have confirrmation?
I think these are probably more beneficial questions to ask than seeing the "finished product" so to speak.
Not bad mouthing your approach. Just curious as to how you would have approached this in real time...
rESpeKt !
You probably will not like my answer but I'll take a stab anyway. I often just jump right in at bar 1 since I'm usually eager to get the first bar behind me so that I can begin to relax. The bar in which I am taking action is always the most difficult to be relaxed in. My monitoring has to be very sharp in noticing how the action is necessarily shifting. I gun for the traversals from support to resistance and the retrace back. The definitive flags for me is usually a bar extension in the new direction at containment points. These may be a few ticks back from the actual pivot. Depending on the steepness of the channel, trading the retrace may actually be flat or worst at a loss but this is just my experience. So your Q is prob along the lines of how do you time the traversals? Well for me, I don't see how not making a channel could possibly clue you into being more alert. I kid you not that I treat trading like driving, I glance everywhere to try and note sharp differences (this is the discretionary part which is still weak for me and strive to strengthen). The traverse is always continuing when I look at the chart. While in a traverse, either the bar extends in the direction of the traverse, stalls (does not extend beyond the high or low of the previous bar), or extends in a direction that is counter the traverse. Volume becomes an extremely strong aspect to monitor at such points in differentiating whether to continue to "HOLD" my position or be prepared to act in accordance with what is next in the cards. If you trade just the "hard right edge" as opposed to the possibly shifting left edge (and I don't like the term edge), you will probably notice that some channels will result in losses by only taking action at the right edge. This is why I try to identify the new forming right trendline as soon as it is possible... Does this answer any of your Q???
As for the information presented... You see the chart from my previous post and it is broader context channel. I stated as to what I am seeing in the cards for what is next and it is a short leg of the current long channel. Presumably, the difficult part for most anyone is working out how to be relaxed. This requires some rigid beliefs in place since you will only act upon that which you ALREADY believe. Otherwise, you'll just be trying to convince yourself that you believe, and then when it fails to unfold, you will cripple your ability to start believing. I am strange in many of these aspects since I only need to see things a few times before my beliefs are in place. In Brooklyn, NY, I can tell when the bus is coming 4 blocks away without even seeing the bus. Why, because my orchestra hearing is sharp. I don't wear a watch because I can tell how much time has past usually to within 2 to 3 mins, why, I am not sure why but I know I can... All this is to make a point that tuning in and believing what is happening will enable the ability to be timely. Hesitation is very dangerous in trading, I do this from time to time. Some times, the hesitation is really just an appropriate HOLD. Otherwise, I try to tune in to only what's relevant, if I'm hearing the bus approaching, I change my orienation to act to get on the market bus so that I don't wind up chasing the market. Also, I'm no expert in any of this. I've had no mentor, not even guidance. Just a few great links, a crap load of self learning which has surprisingly revealed alot about just myself... I know I am doing a number of things wrong but hopefully, things can be worked out. In any event, back to what's important. I'll post my AM soon and hopefully some progress can take place...
Kindest Regards...