Do Trendlines work?

Quote from John Merchant:

At least when I post a trade, you get an execution report to PROVE that I actually TRADE. In this thread my job is to keep Jack honest.
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Why don't you keep yourself honest and post under one identity, and post all your trades under that one name. You also forget, when Jack posted his trades, he was banned.

You are a coward who must always slip away in to the crowd.

Make a stand, John Merchant, and show us what you've got. Don't claim after the fact that "User #50 was me!".

I will personally shred you like a wet kleenex if you dare to post anything of substance.

You should be quite and learn from your master.
 
Quote from John Merchant:

And BTW, Jack, I told you once before that your single quadrant model is flawed. When the direction reverses, you need a SECOND DIFFERENT quad to describe it. Not that either is correct. I'm outa here. Left my waders at home.
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Jack, John Merchant is on the record having admitted he was never profitable trading until he studied your methods.
 
Quote from John Merchant:

My wife gets jealous when I watch the stretch-squeeze in action, though. She thinks I get far too much erotic pleasure from it. And your volume per bar thresholds tuned for NQ keep me out of trouble at mid day.
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I pity your wife. I pity you. If you are only now clued in to volume, you have much to learn. You have more to un-learn.

Your ego will prevent you from succeeding.
 
Oh, my! Such passion! The thought of you unable to sleep because you were thinking of me is intoxicating. I shall never give up Merchant because he excites you so! For your information, he is the LEAST insane of us all, and the best trader. Mostly because he studied Jack diligently, learned where he was wrong, and created from that very wrongness analyses which Jack would not recognize. I'll give you a clue: volume comes in two flavors. Jack's monochromaticity blinds his followers to great insight. And I have not used another pseudonym for nearly two months now. But what difference does it make, anyway, we all hide behind a pseudonym. What's seventeen versus one? Rather than deliciously viciously attack poor little me, why not share what YOU learnt from Jack over the years? And you are speculating that I don't post my screwups? Jack doesn't post ANYTHING. When I post, it is everything I did for the day. As always, I enjoy your posts. Scratch a sadist, as they say...But I do sincerely recommend that you channel your anger into some vigorous physical activity that will please you more. I am such a cheap target, after all. Quite beneath the dignity of your real self. Sleep well.

Oh, and as to learning, I am a very old man who uses ET as an amusing outlet for intellectual creativity. Corrupting the morals of the youth, like Socrates, as it were. Not unlike another old man we both know and love. I am in reality as little like my personae as I suspect that Jack is like his. At least I HOPE he isn't like he writes.
 
Although the 4 cell p,v relationship is very elegant, I find utilising it in a practical trading strategy to be fraught with problems. Life would be a lot simpler if the market moved smoothly from cell to cell in the prescribed manner but in practice it frequently jumps about randomly.

Take a look at YM from 09:30 to 11:20 yesterday. Whipsaw city. The 15min context of a short channel looks like a L2R traverse (in hindsight), with a new long channel starting around 11:25. Pt 3 is not identified until during the 12:05 bar (nice increase in volume and price) but by 12:15 the long trade is looking decidedly weak. The pt 3 in the p.m short channel is not confirmed by volume until the 15:05 bar (running into support from the previous day’s low) at which point the short trade is over.
 

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Quote from Grob109:

Hunting is the meat thing. hunting has climaxes of activity. Gleaning is the steady process of extracting food from a natural setting.

the edge bull is hunting as you do. The gleaning is what most wizards do

50 cent has directly commented and makes several of the pertinent points.
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Another reason trendlines do NOT work;
some try to make trendline work substitute for work,
and that will never work either.


Like a form of occasional trendlines.


And to add to the complexity, some top traders use hunters ,
as part of patterns, like cheetahs for position trading.:cool:
 
We have completed our first experiment yesterday night. It was a very rough experiment We took all possible trend lines that one could draw on the chart following all of your suggestions and entered the trades. We use daily charts for NQ and YM. 58% of entries made money but overall it was a loosing tactic (even before commissions and slippage). Will work on the refinements today. I will post the results.
 
A couple of items...

Icarus, allow me to speak more about the rendition you have of the johari matrix since I think we can all get to higher logical ground. There is discussion in a separate thread stating whether or not volume precedes price or vice versa. A few know where I stand on this and I will try and tie everything back to trendlines. So just by focusing on PV the frequency ratio is 1:2 (ie. V is 2x the fundamental period of P). Given this, Volume will Increase then Decrease all the while Price is increasing. This leads to how is it that price is increasing anywhere on DKM's chart when volume is decreasing. A few have a bias on there visual of volume. This is where channels become effective. When you draw your channel, you see that the channel is increasing, decreasing, flat or a pennant. I will elaborate on increasing channels. Pennant are strictly dominated by V deteriorating to a limiting case where as a consequence P's variation decreases over time. With an increasing channel (2 parralel trendlines), you start with Point 1, P increases V increases, Point 2 Volume decreases Price retraces (decreases) on the chart your annotating till point 3. The channel is what is STILL increasing. This means that on a slower period chart the Price bars are ALL still increasing and are neatly and completely contained within the very channel drawn on the faster periodicity that one is annotating and extending. I showed a tape a few days ago... I will post with some mods for clarity and benefit to those who are interested in learning/understanding something. It is well worth it since I can slice how I trade many different ways.

This keys in to aspects of pairing different period Price bar periods. I know some of you are accustomed to 5 min & 1 min or 5 min and 2 min, either way, you've got your channel on the faster period that is likely to fill in as a tape on your slower chart. Thus your channel becomes a very effective trendline that is clean on the slower period chart where all the bars remain consistent with the PV 1:2 frequency ratio... This posting is off the top of the dome so it may in fact be prone to some corrections whether they be minor or major. I welcome them all for the purposes of progression....

MAESTRO... your attachment... I've mechanically drawn in these lines just with PV relationship and 3 points on the price. There are also some interesting items like hitches/dips/stalls but I'm not a pro on these (at least not yet).... You'll see that just on the few parrelel lines that I was able to draw them within the first 2 bars of what was to become a lengthier trend. The power is in being able to extend these parrallel lines into the future chart region and annotate as volume increases decreases and price increases decreases within the parrallel lines. There is a very special instance that occurs within the channels which alerts the need to begin the start and implementation of a new set of parrallel lines... Any pros can add/correct or build on this? Pardon me for not filling in all annotations and extending into the future... I learned a tremendous amount just by filling in what you show. There are many great aspects to discuss in the chart you presented...
 

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