Do Trendlines work?
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
The 2 pair and spike are observable. That was the intent of my last post and I could have been more clear. More than one instance of them are shown on the pic I attached. Can you spot them? How do they relate to the coarse monitoring? In real time watching the pattern that shows up on the TWS is another thing that relaxes.
Quote from MAESTRO:
A very good point! Such knowledge is assumed but does not necessarily exist thus trendlines are also assumed (subjectively) but do not exist objectively.
That was my point exactly.
If I understand you, you are saying that what is subjectively observed does not exist? Get a grip.
Very Cool. I will nit-pick your previous post to death. I've actually tried replicating your setup in Ensign. I have the app but never used it. Waste of money being that I haven't started using it but I know theres alot of untapped potential in the app so I hold on to force myself to get familiar. I'm just putting in my due discretionary dilligence before understanding what mentally works for my EQ/IQ. The discretionary aspect is so much more fun than the mechanical. It's like driving as opposed to being driven. I realize I'm a control freak and thus striving to beat my auto trader.
As for my monitoring, it is peculiar. I've got a single tick chart on my left monitor, a zoom (ie. PIP fine tick chart) on my right monitor in addition to the T&S and Market Depth or Depth of Market (TWS) depending on my visual pref at any time. In any event, my coarse is the channels which I do on my left with a tick chart. Because of my new crisp NLP recognition of the broader context cycles, I just watch the market/chart action unfold as extremely slo-mo and just like a day at the beach. It really fills in very slow and smooth tides (cycles), and advances/recedes within the tide (sub cycles). I've got a post somewhere showing the type of chart. I draw my channels on them because they are so crisp (right down to a tick). The trickier parts were pace which I do via both 5 min bidvol & askvol prv just to hone on the granularity of what is being demanded (a recent addition). For confirm, I also glance at the time differential between gridlines along the horizontal axis much like a speedometer, it indicates cleanly for my orientation when the gas is punched down or brakes are being applied. So the fine is the stuff I posted yesterday. I know there is context given to YM which I have tried to SEE and absorb but have failed to notice how they dance with respect to each other... I'm hoping to incorporate this smart money context soon... The 2 pair/spike is stuff I have toyed with mechanically with surprising real results. However it lacks a vol framework and thus can be improved.
In any event thanks again icarus for your comment. I will study your setup in detail (ie. what it is that you look for and more importantly the order).
OT here, but for some reason I began to notice that ET is like a hospital. It's very hard to distinguish and find the nurses and doctors. There's a maternity ward (nwbs), ER, trauma, psychiatric, but very very few nurses and doctors (ie. those who have seen it all and can help). However given the tremendous number of impatients, it seams as though the complex is severely understaffed. On top of that, too many of the impatients are permanent and long term who recognize that they have some sort of weakness but refuse to be either assisted or accept any type of treatment, medication, or even a prognosis or rehabilitation program... Blabbin here... I am not a nurse nor a doctor. Just an impatient seeking an adhering to a nurses or doctors advice. Prob is who is a genuine nurse or doctor as opposed to someone who prescribes to be a nurse or doctor without proper credentials....Stranger yet is that monitoring the market is much like monitoring a patient. I used to be the "I Concur" type because I didn't want to make a discretionary decision. However, it appears that confident and accurate discretionary judgement is rewarding and can be developed by having and monitoring with the smallest number of applicable tools that can give a complete picture of all of the market's vitals...
In any event thanks again icarus. I will look and attempt to increase my awareness fine comb your previous chart...
Quote from MAESTRO:
Hi Walther.
1/ Before I reply I would like you to know that you are one of my favorite posters on ET.
2/ Having said that I still would like to argue that trend lines are not more then a psychological trick that your eyes are playing with you. Please do the following experiment:
Take any chart, pick any point on it and draw any straight line at any angle on this chart. Look at the result and use the same logic as you'd use to "read" normal trendlines or you'd use to "explain" the price behavior. You are in a big surprise
3/ Now, I'm not saying that the trendlines are right or wrong, what I'm saying is that there was no conclusive research done to formally prove that the trendlines depict a point on the chart that would have grater probability for the price to go up or down. There is no formal way to test it and there is no evidence to conclude that they could be used as a prediction tool.
P.S. I still love your timing indicator.
1/ I hope it is because my analytic ability and not because of my good looks. lol
2/ You are a brilliant platform developer and quant . You are not as good as an analyst . I mean it in a helpfull way so you will work on it . You just do not understand trendlines because you are a quant dude . It happens a lot .
When the time comes when your fund will be spending 100's K on analysis give me a call. I can show you few "psychological trendlines tricks'' which will clarify most of unresolved analytical problems you have right now with your fund longer term holdings.
3/ I have developed numerous geometrical methods to identify points on charts that have the best probability of reversals. Most of them can be mastered by high schoolers but not by MBA or PHD holders.
Am I going to publish it ? Not a chance !
Good luck to you,
Jack wants people to collaborate to make it easier to 'get it'.If he had an interest in people getting it and it was possible for one person to help another to get it (his apparent reasons are to increase growth in trading and provide pockets of wealth).Why wouldn't he instruct some people personally and ask them to do the same with two others and instruct their students to pass it on?I've made contact with a person in regards to collaboration who posted as a successful trader who turned out not to be.At first I thought Mr.Hershey might be a construct of a University psychology dept.lol. writing on mass gullibility.
Could play a break over this line
could pay a short from this line
could pay a short from this line
and just for laughs, let's see what this POSSIBLE trend line does