Do Trendlines work?

[Cutten]

Quote from Lefty62151:

The real answer is, when you guys use them, generally the answer is NO, but in the hands of a talented, skilled, experienced trader who knows how to prepare and use them correctly, YES!!!

Lefty

Thus, it's not the trendlines that generate profits, but the experience of the trader at reading the price action.

 

[Trent]

Quote from Cutten:

Do trendlines tell you anything you could not easily discern by looking at a bare chart?

Lets put it this way: If I see certain things happening

(i) right at a trend line
(ii) before price has reached a trend line
(iii) after the price has breached a trend line

I may take different action, allthough this is just one of the many variables in my decision making.

So in my experience trend lines do have some validity beyond being just a visual aid (and they make a decent job in the visual aid department too).

Trent

 

[Grob109]

Quote from Cutten:

Do trendlines tell you anything you could not easily discern by looking at a bare chart?

Yes

 

[Grob109]

Quote from Cutten:

What information does it give you? I've seen plenty of trendline breaks that then turned around and resumed the trend stronger than ever.

When to hold and when to reverse.

You were on the wrong fractal for drawing the pertinant trend line. That learning comes with time.

 

[Grob109]

Quote from Cutten:

Thus, it's not the trendlines that generate profits, but the experience of the trader at reading the price action.

Actualy neither trendlines nor reading make money. Taking actions (executing) is what makes money.

 

[Grob109]

Quote from Trent:

Lets put it this way: If I see certain things happening

(i) right at a trend line
(ii) before price has reached a trend line
(iii) after the price has breached a trend line

I may take different action, allthough this is just one of the many variables in my decision making.

So in my experience trend lines do have some validity beyond being just a visual aid (and they make a decent job in the visual aid department too).

Trent

You could really become more profitable if you applied your words to the left channel line instead of the right channel line.

You will really get some additional zings if you reverse on the left channel line as well. The channels overlap and the trendline break is well into the new channel.

Godd luck; take the chance a few times.

 

[John Merchant]

A fascinating thread. Interesting that no one has posted that he coded up intraday trend line formation, backtested it, and found it to have positive expectation. There's a reason for the absence of such a post. Hahahahahaha!

 

[makosgu]

Quote from John Merchant:

A fascinating thread. Interesting that no one has posted that he coded up intraday trend line formation, backtested it, and found it to have positive expectation. There's a reason for the absence of such a post. Hahahahahaha!

Probably a limited thought reasoning. My backtest which is/would be a waste of time means nothing and should convince you likewise. I have done the coding down to the tick. Trendlines are fabulous when thought and recognized from what I believe to be an enabling perspective. They absolutely work and always tell me what has failed (ie. money making). Thank goodness a simple action (as opposed to the inaction that turns all winners to losers) continues money making. Funny how the entire landscape of the market for simpletons can be reduce to 3 singular points. The points themselves can be reduced to a noiseless DFA (deterministic finite automata). If this makes sense, then it should be clear as to what the accept state of a DFA is. My trendlines today provided me with 12 points on 1 ES contract today. Chop Away... I didn't need the DFA to answer the only important question I ever need to ask...

 

[John Merchant]

I would be properly humbled if you posted an execution report. I do, although mine are not as magnificent you claim yours to be. I stand by my contention that intraday trend line formation does not backtest with positive expectation.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from John Merchant:

I would be properly humbled if you posted an execution report. I do, although mine are not as magnificent you claim yours to be. I stand by my contention that intraday trend line formation does not backtest with positive expectation.

I refuse to entertain...