Do Trendlines work?

Would there have been a clean scalp at approx 11:45 when the upward trend had broken? Or would it be a better probability to take the continuation of the upward trend? All in personal risk.
I'm not watching real-time today, so hindsight adds tremendous profit!
 
I have a question for you folks. How often do you re-draw a broken trend line if appears the overall trend is still intact? My view is it's subjective and that's part of the challenge.
 
Quote from dandxg:

I have a question for you folks. How often do you re-draw a broken trend line if appears the overall trend is still intact?
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Correct. This can be easily observed if you have channels on your live charts. But their use poses the problem of BO's being too slow, each time, as you transition from upswing to downswing or vice versa. Sometimes the channel BO's are accurate enough but that does not make them a viable continuum for trading the market for the whole daily session Open to EOD (eg YM, CL). If you are using the very blunt & antiquated choice of a 5min chart for daytrading you are just giving yourself a double whammy of difficulty.

Neverthelees channels can be used as an overall perceptual guide to price movement patterns. They are not good enough for an accurate system nailing the beginning of each upswing and each downswing as they follow each other on the live chart (eg YM, CL). To do this you must already have an accurate methodology.
 
I was speaking about for myself. They work for me and if it doesnt work for others to each there own, I am not here to bash anyone system. Just to say yes they work, for me that is. No its not a holy grail and dont work everytime, but again nothing does. I like using them and they allow me to make money. I do use them basically as a price/action indiator for myself along with the tape
 
I dont not dare to say they are proven statistical certainty , this is trading so nothing is certainy. And re reading some of your posts, I can agree that money management, good entries/exits, along with other factors involved have helped me utilize trendlines as a way to trade for myself. I do not sinwg trade , I trade intra-day off a 144 tic chart myself!
 
A trendline can only work if you have a 100% objective method of drawing it. Given that you ask 10 people to draw trendlines on an identical chart using scientific criteria (which must be mathematically proven correct) only then can you say that a trendline "worked" or did not "work"
 
It's not about the trendline, the question is ignorant and shows a lack of understanding

A trendline works only in the sense that it helps highlight price action, so it will work for some and not for others depending on the individuals level of interpretation
 
Quote from bobblong:

A trendline can only work if you have a 100% objective method of drawing it. Given that you ask 10 people to draw trendlines on an identical chart using scientific criteria (which must be mathematically proven correct) only then can you say that a trendline "worked" or did not "work"
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A standard reference for the technique to be used to draw a trendline is to be found in Victor Sperandeo's book "Trader Vic- Methods of a Wall Street Master". It is specific and objective in the sense that if one adheres to the protocol he outlines, there is no room for artistic interpretation.
It would seem that the question as to whether or not it works is best answered by first asking oneself, what is it that I'm expecting this trendline to do for me. Again, objective criteria can be constructed/defined to allow one to ascertain the answer to this question. Victor Sperandeo has several that he uses but one need not be limited by these.
As for the mathematical rigour component, the best one would seem to be whether or not you can measure an increase in the balance of your trading account after using your methodology and equally as important, whether or not this increase is something you can consistently count on.
The beauty of mathematics is that you can say whatever you want as long as you can prove it. The market itself is the sine qua non with respect to the testing/proving thingy for any sort of "market theory".

lj
 
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