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Do Trendlines work?
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
And don't forget Tom Demark with his "TD" Lines. (Gotta love the guys who name their every idea/indicator after themselves.)
What I'd like to see is a comprehensive backtest of a trendline system. I think you could use either Trader Vic or Demark's. (Demark even has 4 qualifiers for his).
What I'd like to see is a comprehensive backtest of a trendline system. I think you could use either Trader Vic or Demark's. (Demark even has 4 qualifiers for his).
Quote from sunsetisles:
Rather than the usual parade of anecdotal mis-information, serious market students interested in geometric structures in financial markets might consider the rich literature available on trendlines and their subsets.
Here's a sampler:
1. "Methods of a Wall Street Master" by
Victor Sperandeo a/k/a Trader Vic
2. http://www.trading-naked.com/
alan_andrews_course_1.htm
3. "Trading With Medianlines" by Tim
Morge
4. Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst - Arthur Sklarew
5. "Channel Surfing, Riding the Waves of Channels to Profitable Trading" by
Michael J. Parsons
6. http://www.techedgetrading.com/
Quote from dared:
I am starting this thread to propose an hypothesis regarding why I believe trendlines are significant, not random and of use in trading.
Hmm, nothing against trendlines, but this is the problem of most TA traders
I believe many "major" trendline breaks are correlated to "news" or "fundamental" changes in a given market. Trendline breaks then reflect this change.
For instance let's say you have an 11 market day uptrend on a daily chart. HH and HL. But then oil, inflation, non-farm payrolls, etc. fundamentally change the perception of the current price trend and you get a price trend break from up to either down or consolidation.
That is why I believe trendlines work.
Any thoughts or research to support or refute this simplistic view of trendlines is welcomed.
There is no room in profitable trading for beliefs or "instances/examples as proof" If it can't be punched into a serious statistical test that show beyond doubt that it outperforms over a long time over various instruments in multiple market geometries, then it is relatively useless. Some will whine, but they will likely be the same people who disappear from ET in a few months to a year, because they dropped their wad following their beliefs and not demanding statistically valid PROOF that it works.
Now the TA aficionados can whine and complain that it is not possible to quantify or that they have a friend/know someone who has made some mysteriously mystical indicator do amazing things (who of course, would "never share their magical secrets") and other useless anecdotal drivel. Anything but solid proof. Does TA seem to resemble the dark arts?
I am starting this thread to propose an hypothesis regarding why I believe trendlines are significant, not random and of use in trading.
Hmm, nothing against trendlines, but this is the problem of most TA traders
I believe many "major" trendline breaks are correlated to "news" or "fundamental" changes in a given market. Trendline breaks then reflect this change.
For instance let's say you have an 11 market day uptrend on a daily chart. HH and HL. But then oil, inflation, non-farm payrolls, etc. fundamentally change the perception of the current price trend and you get a price trend break from up to either down or consolidation.
That is why I believe trendlines work.
Any thoughts or research to support or refute this simplistic view of trendlines is welcomed.
There is no room in profitable trading for beliefs or "instances/examples as proof" If it can't be punched into a serious statistical test that show beyond doubt that it outperforms over a long time over various instruments in multiple market geometries, then it is relatively useless. Some will whine, but they will likely be the same people who disappear from ET in a few months to a year, because they dropped their wad following their beliefs and not demanding statistically valid PROOF that it works.
Now the TA aficionados can whine and complain that it is not possible to quantify or that they have a friend/know someone who has made some mysteriously mystical indicator do amazing things (who of course, would "never share their magical secrets") and other useless anecdotal drivel. Anything but solid proof. Does TA seem to resemble the dark arts?
If it can't be punched into a serious statistical test that show beyond doubt that it outperforms over a long time over various instruments in multiple market geometries, then it is relatively useless.
[/B] [/B]
True if someone is trading the way you do.
Using information and statistics (apparently)
If one has observed trendlines day in and day out for 10 years in different instruments and markets and geometries and seen with his own eyes how the line can help with some predictions, then it is useful repeating information with some predictability, hence: trading information.
If you think about it, what I just described is basically a human doing what you described to be done "punched in"
Quote from romik:
Rcanfiel, you are an idiot (fact), T/A "doesn't work" (assumption).
Romik
You are a poster child for ignorant clueless stupidity (fact), T/A doesn't work (large number of published studies), T/A does work (assumption by many, who steadfastly refuse all attempts to back up their claims and constantly point to "I know someone who..." or "works for me" which is the CLASSIC example of anecdotal evidence, as below)
Anecdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.
discipline works.... people argue every technical technique but fail to recognize the underlying principle to technical analysis and trading for that matter,