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Do Trendlines work?
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
I've finally read through all of this thread. I've found several things that I think may be useful in my trading.
The thread periodically returns to arguments about whether trendlines work or not. I have not found these to be of much value.
So I'll suggest that we close this thread and start two new ones:
1) Examples of trendlines -- people like myself can read/participate in this thread to share our experiences using trendlines.
2) Trendline arguments -- people who have a need to argue about trendline usefulness etc. can use this thread to argue.
If we do this, both groups will not be bothered by the clutter generated by the other group.
enjoy,
slowBear
The thread periodically returns to arguments about whether trendlines work or not. I have not found these to be of much value.
So I'll suggest that we close this thread and start two new ones:
1) Examples of trendlines -- people like myself can read/participate in this thread to share our experiences using trendlines.
2) Trendline arguments -- people who have a need to argue about trendline usefulness etc. can use this thread to argue.
If we do this, both groups will not be bothered by the clutter generated by the other group.
enjoy,
slowBear
trendlines work till they are violated and even when they are sometimes it is just a temporary case of mkt takin' the wrong turn before correctin' its trajectory. still, i use no more emas and such but draw lines in my head or by hand and yeah, when the lines are penetrated if there aint a sudden bounce and presto am out.
ok, im a sucker for punishment - - - - -
while i dont scream it from the rooftops, i continuously use trendlines along with all the other indicators as well as my own system, the RSIWLR.
when a trendline (OR the LRC) is violated to the upside or downside, an immediate warning is generated and its usually a negative one. this happens on multi year, single year, 3 month and intraday charts, and should get ones attention on other indicators QUICKLY !
trendlines are simply ANOTHER tool in the arsenal, but foolish is the longer term trader (OR the intraday) who pays no attention to them, as often (at least in forex) a previous support trend line can quickly turn into a resistance trend line on a fast sell to the downside ! (at least in my own experience)
not something to start a new religion over, but certainly a very valuable tool in the toolbox -- but dont you peeps use the LRC, one of the greatest predictive tools in the box !
trade well and enjoy
mp
while i dont scream it from the rooftops, i continuously use trendlines along with all the other indicators as well as my own system, the RSIWLR.
when a trendline (OR the LRC) is violated to the upside or downside, an immediate warning is generated and its usually a negative one. this happens on multi year, single year, 3 month and intraday charts, and should get ones attention on other indicators QUICKLY !
trendlines are simply ANOTHER tool in the arsenal, but foolish is the longer term trader (OR the intraday) who pays no attention to them, as often (at least in forex) a previous support trend line can quickly turn into a resistance trend line on a fast sell to the downside ! (at least in my own experience)
not something to start a new religion over, but certainly a very valuable tool in the toolbox -- but dont you peeps use the LRC, one of the greatest predictive tools in the box !
trade well and enjoy
mp
TA doesn't work 100% of the time.
If trendlines had any ability to predict future price movement, then it would be easy to program a backtest that could 100% prove this.
Picking high points and low points and drawing a line between them is something that can easily be done by a computer.
Ive heard of no such results. Sounds like reading tea leaves to me, and being fooled by randomness as is usually the case.
Picking high points and low points and drawing a line between them is something that can easily be done by a computer.
Ive heard of no such results. Sounds like reading tea leaves to me, and being fooled by randomness as is usually the case.
---------------------------------------------------------Quote from traderdragon2:
If trendlines had any ability to predict future price movement, then it would be easy to program a backtest that could 100% prove this.
Picking high points and low points and drawing a line between them is something that can easily be done by a computer.
Ive heard of no such results. Sounds like reading tea leaves to me, and being fooled by randomness as is usually the case.
as i said, not a subject to start a new religion over, but just a tool. go over to stockfetcher and look at their "channeling stocks" which, while channeling up and down the LRC, are actually moving within two trend lines.
if a stock has moved for 5 months in this same channel, it is thought that it shall continue until it doesn't any longer. if you had looked at the chart months ago, you would be far ahead in bucks at this point --- just cant agree that they dont foretell, but also not saying they're the end all and be all of TA either !
to the poster who speaks that TA doesn't work 100% of the time, NOTHING DOES, but we are in, and have been in, a TA market where traders watch support and resistance and buy and sell accordingly UNTIL news changes the situation and establishes a new trend !
one can draw lines anywhere, but after a few years one gets to "feel" where trends have changed and re-draw from that point -- one look at a chart should show that easily enough.
now ive spoken about backtesting before, and simply put, i dont use it or believe in it, as the success of the trendline and the stock or currency im watching is all the "backtesting" i shall ever need. Now maybe my trading style (core position on a rising or falling symbol and long the rally and short the dip within the trend lines) doesn't fit with the backtesting method, i dont know (and actually, dont care either) but the trendlines work for me, provide me a guide to where the symbol SHOULD be at its high or low, and if it violates that trendline, gets my attention quickly.
guess what im saying is i have no use for backtesting, as i can see what a stock has done, is doing and pretty much what it will do !
my opinion and style, of course !
mp
Quote from cashmoney69:
TA doesn't work 100% of the time.
of course it doesn't, but breakouts of trend lines do help to see 'genuine' reversals, depending on time frame used. An oscillator might provide a reverse pattern, one of the non-complex ways to see whether that reverse pattern is providing a follow through is to draw a trend line and see how price reacts.
Quote from traderdragon2:
If trendlines had any ability to predict future price movement, then it would be easy to program a backtest that could 100% prove this.
Picking high points and low points and drawing a line between them is something that can easily be done by a computer.
Ive heard of no such results. Sounds like reading tea leaves to me, and being fooled by randomness as is usually the case.
Traderdragon2,I have beaten what you said to death,and the "discussion" degenerated from there.....I personally do not believe them to have "predictive" value,but would be thrilled to be proven wrong...
Spyder and Jack Hershey have been kind enough to post their approach to trendline analysis..Perhaps one of the proponents of trendlines would illustrate "live" how they approach the analysis,and we all could learn something
LOL. Very entertaining.