Do Trendlines work?

Hi Grob109,
Would you possibly consider joining the Elite Chat room one day to give a live demonstration of the trades you take with the technique you are using ? It is very interesting. If so, please post a date you would be there. I would be happy to make a nice contribution to a charity of your choice.
Thanks,
CL
 
Had to really hustle today to rack up the C->C this AM. Just found out today is green$pan. 2:15 pm, bracket and put your trendlines to work starting at 2:15... Primo PM to see clean trendlines at work. Prepare to act.
 
Quote from dkm:

Are you using reducing pro rata volume on the slower fractal to indicate that the trend is ending?

The crucial factor in your answer appears to be "pace". These are the points that I have identified:

Context:
I am looking for peaking volume at the LHS of the channel.
I am looking for minimum volume at the RHS of the channel.

Pace:
If the pace is fast, sideline if I see reducing volume on 5min fractal. For a slower pace I have the option to trade the countertrend traverse, which I am not doing at present. Focus on pace instead of formations, for the time being. Compare peaking volume in successive guassians on 2min fractal to help identify reversals, along with the usual B2B and R2R.

My apologies if this is too simplistic, but I am trying to reach a practical understanding of how to use trend lines in the context of price and volume. Although I am using multiple fractals (15, 5 and 2) I still find that the channel context frequently becomes unclear, leading to whipsaws etc.

Thanks for the comments. I feel that each thing you have expressed is correct and it a place from which to build.
I will make a few general comments and then focus on some pertinent details that will help you assess specific parts of the trading sequences.

I am doing okay ossacsionally, so I will try for a little continuity if possible.

By the by. this is a greenspan day and so the am will be quiet and then you will have some nice BO and after trading today. The B team can go back and get 5 or 6 complete playouts I have posted on those several occassions. It is like clockwork for me to incite them and then they get to see another greenspan as the simplest example they fail to undrstand.


NOW the comments:

Your use of 15, 5 and 2 to trade on the 5 is a basic and fundamental necessity. You see that and you use it. P, V is also your fundamental market driving principle. This is the essence of being able to see and hear the market which leads to building a mind that is in harmony with making money the market gives you.


To make money, we always consider what is available at the time. You discern that "pace" is the basic consideration for determining availability. Rockets, icebergs and slaloming relate to this pace. The context of pace occurs within the Intermediate term trend (IT) condition. Notice there is nothing ever going haywire (plastic twine) in the IT. Our minds are able to understand the slower enveloping trends very soon and very adequately. This stability of understanding is a strong framework for building the rest of the market and trading paradigm between the trader and the market.

There is slim pickings when you read the literature when it comes to pace. Use other terms to find info. make a list of 10 or so items that collectively give you insight on pace.

For making money pace determines risk determines availability.

Here is where you are presently situated and now you can see why I gave yesterday's advice (the honey that really drew out the long term "B" flies it seems). Why couldn't they differentiate inquiry of an experienced person from inquiry of a newer person?

You trade entries and exits rather than hold and reverse. And for two reason sets you deal with trader perception items like the faster aspect whipsaw and the slower aspect, internal trend channel formations as analysis considerations.

Let me step into the picture and guide a little. I can spout facts but intead, here, the matter is shifting the emphasis and establishing relative importance of specific observations.

What I do intensionally is comment in ways that allow pathways to be build in the comfort of success while at the same time fragmenting other pathways that, later, magically the pieces can be reconnected in a more supportive manner. It is the alternative to working puzzle pieces on an anvil with a hammer; hammering ill fitting pieces gives you art work and working with real pieces gently as a synthesis gives you science in a complex arena.

To do monitoring and analysis it is more a case of observing what you are being given instead of a set of rules of "what to look for". Obviously, I do suggest, a lot of the time, "where to look". Where is a place on your screen. What is the market talking to you and you seeing what it says.

I took you across the 5 min trend traverse (R2L) gausian by gausian (2 minute). and you undertood "look for x at the L side" and "look for y at the R side". I espouse a repeated process (monitor, analyze, decide, and act (mostly hold)) and I am now guiding you to do the process. I do say what you will find at various times and situations but I am not guiding you to "look for" primarily.

Here is an observation. When we look at any given fractal, we see the effects of slower and faster fractals as well. Those who use periodic continuous function or periodic statistical analysis do either by synthesis or analysis assess the effects of periodic components throughout the spectrums. These efforts sometimes relate to making money. How can they be used?

We are definitely using an assortment as close to being the minumum amount as possible. This is a considered monitoring orientation that serves to better make money than using formation or whipsaw rules. The 623 rules that outline living for conservative Jewish groups make for a functional life. Others use a Jiminy Cricket orientation derived from tapping the conscience. (with science). Welling up to consciousness a way of operating is best done from fundamental rational processes.


Seeing how the P,V relation works throughout the spectrum of fractals, provides the comprehensive foundation. It is complete with the addition of the correlary I stated.

For the slowest fractal, the P,V "shows" at a glance. So we know where in that cycle we are. I creatd scoring mostly for that and the adition of the third variable (A/D) was simply a fineness control to give 8 segments rather than just four. To spend 50 years observing and doing how to trade and then creating a bunch of tranference mechanisms is a good effort to complete. Which is for observing and doing and which is for transference?

The unessential falls away by the dominance of the essential it turns out.

I do prevent B people from getting it as you know.

As you let the market speak more and do "look for" less (just not do it, except to recognize occurances as a "matter of fact"), you will not deal with formations (rules associated with them) and whipsaw (will be the opposite and a way to continue money velocity instead of sidelining).

I will comment on each of your questions next. Use this to reread my colored post.
 
Trendlines do work.....question is, which ones do and which ones don't???? This typical forum gives false information to people who are vulnerable by stating absolute advice which is usually absolutely incorrect....
 
Team B bench warmer here. I am reluctant to sound like a broken record, but in the context of Jack, it is appropriate. Nowhere here have I seen anything but ASSERTIONS that SCT works. I am not saying that it doesn't. Perhaps it does but is so complex that it is not even amenable to proof. But I have tested codable pieces of it, and those pieces tested with negative expectation. And, lest we forget, we saw Nwbprop et al. fail miserably to profit from it in low stress paper trading with Jack's tutelage. And as to Jack's so-called "call" at the last FOMC, it was incorrect, as compared to my own. If we lesser mortals can abase ourselves posting our embarrassing little 4-5 tick trades, surely Jack can share a string of his 3X daily range trades. Hindsight is to foresight as hindskin is to foreskin.
 
Quote from John Merchant:

Perhaps it does but is so complex that it is not even amenable to proof. .

I think that is true. I do believe it can be done but not by us ordinary mortals. I know a couple of traders who make more than the daily range pretty regular. I have no illusions about achieving sct but I have found using volume as Jacks suggests to be quite useful and am hoping to get better at it. I did see a daily statement awhile back in which he did make a lot of trades mostly for just a point or two. I wish I had a link but it was quite awhile ago and I have forgotten where I saw it.
 
You know what I find annoying when your brother calls you tells you he is shorting 1168 because it is on the daily and weekly downtrend lines. And you do not take the trade.
 
I am going to parse this briefly. this means I am on your turf in your environment and commenting specifically on your observations. All this is a positive preamble.



Quote from dkm:

Are you using reducing pro rata volume on the slower fractal to indicate that the trend is ending?

Lets use a fractal that shows the IT trend and the short term traverses in the IT. Here we can see the major thing you use to trade, i.e., the P,V relation. So the volume bar by bar will show the P,V relation and therefore the four combinations of P and V that give you the segments per cycle of a cycle. I use three ways to illustrate these four parts. My rendition of the combinations in a Jokari window of four cells is the most common used by other to who this has been transferred. A figure 8 pattern brevails in the lap through the four cells. Since this is a sequence, we have great power as partners sharing with the market.

Why can't guys like merchant test this? B people can't because of their personal orientation. For anyone else it is possible to perceive that the market is orderly and that at all times there are three questions on the table; they are:

1. Where in the cycle is the market?

2. What is next? and

3. How fast is the market changing?

Thus, conveniently, we are always surrounded by the market simply because we go outside of where we are trading to a longer term cycling place to see and understand thoroughly and deply the market context.

There is a comment today from a person who is incapable of doing trend lines 100% of the time. He uses the word absolute in his whining post. were he to see the IT as a place where fifth graders are flawless in doing trendline channels using the newspaper charts, he could learn something. Instead of being a blamer, he could go to an authority he respects and learn to draw trend lines and channels. Why can't he go to a resource to solve his stated problem? Many many reasons.

For a person who wants to make money fairly easily, the best thing to do is learn the four parts of a cycle in terms of P and V and THEN learn to draw cycles in terms of their boundaries instead of their axis of variation. Look at the math used in testing. It is usually not a descriptive math but a math, determined by the user, to be the math of least resistance. Look at merchant, he reads my stuff avidly and then gets trapped in his limitations of being mathematically lazy. What is the basic math of the P, V relation? algebra. Okay, does the rules of algebra change if the base is considered? Yes always. every different base has a different set of algebraic rules. That is "absolute"...lol.

So the market dictates the math. How? It does it by the relations of the variables. When anyone engages in learning about anything, they are forced by the subject to participate according to the subjects demands.

I was allowed to go to Princeton one day a week when I was in high school. Why? why? I was conducted there to have a wake up call for the rest of my life. Once in ARCH school I drew the harkness tower in pen and ink to reflect. they displayed and before i could pass it on to a buddy who decided to go there, someone copped it. lol.

So we arrive in the land of George Boole (1820's) and we are sitting in an asymmetric relationship. Opposites do not apply. Immerse yourself in why the simplest pattern of the variables is a figure 8. It is haunting to go to places that are pure and clean and cast no shadows of uncertainty.

Why can't people consider dealing in the turf where opposites do not apply. Isn't it basically amazing to see that the basic frquency of the two principal variables are in a prime number basic multiple of one another. Do you ever wonder why the ET back testing crew is so abjectly defunct in getting the job done. absolute and total fuck up land using their language and the recent poster on absoluteness.


First zoom in.to go from IT trend to the short term trends within is best thought of as designed to give comfort. you are looking at short term and you are within the IT. It is tough to get "outside" period. positon trading happens here. Position trading is most recognizable as a continuous in the market possibility. Merchant can't see SCT. Position trading is SCT trading on a slow fractal within the IT. Big money does a heck of a lot of this. Buffet who uses OPM to be rich is a very slow position trader using LT and some IT as a vernier. Futures indexes make money on a lot of fractal and more and more is made as you shorten the cycle period of choice. SCT works really effectively on intraday trading. So the position trading short term cycle (figure 8 where the V frequency is twice the P frequency) is about 5 or six days long on average and we trade within the short term cycle as dictated during each day. This means that usually there is a daily "trending" carrier for us to zomm into next.

Zoom to intradayduring each day we traverse the short term trend channel about four times. M's or W's are the rule. By now you see that the IT channel can be drawn flawlessly from fifth grade on up, the short term channels are clean and you use them as they go along for days. daily prep and post trading debriefing is where you be sure that they are kept up. IT and ST are done after hours.

Lets learn to draw a channel authoritatively. Go to a book or several; what is important is that you use a black highliter in these books. One that is as wide as the type face or more for convenience. Obliterate all text that discusses drawing after the fact. Only preserve the parts that are conducting you to draw ASAP and extend the two lines indefinitely. secondly Yellow highlite all the passages that discuss trend channel over lap. One highliter will last you a lifetime it turns out.

I use a point 1, 2 3 approach which takes only two consecutive bars to do. That is what ASAP means. The two posts of the pennant chart of "trend lines" was a perfect place for me to write 80 pages on what was going on really. The chart was perfect as an illustration of the market. i felt that It would have been perfect to do my projection o the first chart so the second chart would be "within the channel that was there and tradable long. We all can do that if we want to. It's a choice.

Practice this channel rawing using a landscape piece of paper. Draw two bars and number the points. In every case you will have two channels and one of them is going to help you make money. Every day you can watch the market go to sync and by that time you have drawn extensions into the future of where the market is going. In the first fifteen minutes you get four bars one second after fifteen minutes. What you see is the mess that sets up the first trend following this. A warm up for you. The eight bars on the two min chart are well along the way to getting inot the second gaussian on two minute volume. this paragraph puts you in the trenches and you have lines in that stretch into the first hour of trading.

As merchant was told by easy there were some logs that showed about (20) actions and they made 1 point or 2 per trade (20 actions in SCT give 19 trades) so only 18 to 38 ES points were showing there. 40 points lets you add a contract.....lol.


more coming in second half....

 
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