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- Thread starter duard
- Start date
I just love this - we ripped apart Jacks script about trading in the "now" and "monitoring".
I told him to get those corners on the five minute charts you had to have those corners pre-traded and set up. Because those prices do not last long enough for people trading in the now.
I made it a point to him that you could not make as many trades as he suggested (20 plus) without anticipating the market. Now Jack makes this adjustment to his script as if it were his all along.
He just throws to the road side hundreds of pages about trading in the "now" with:
"To get down where the rubber meets the road, the NOW is not enough even if it is coupled to the very very near past to make vectors. By moving the NOW over to the left (in the direction of the past) and looking at what NOW is becoming, is when you get your first look at the market."
I told him to get those corners on the five minute charts you had to have those corners pre-traded and set up. Because those prices do not last long enough for people trading in the now.
I made it a point to him that you could not make as many trades as he suggested (20 plus) without anticipating the market. Now Jack makes this adjustment to his script as if it were his all along.
He just throws to the road side hundreds of pages about trading in the "now" with:
"To get down where the rubber meets the road, the NOW is not enough even if it is coupled to the very very near past to make vectors. By moving the NOW over to the left (in the direction of the past) and looking at what NOW is becoming, is when you get your first look at the market."
Jack's trading a 100 years from now.. unfortunately he is still trading at a lossQuote from jem:
"To get down where the rubber meets the road, the NOW is not enough even if it is coupled to the very very near past to make vectors. By moving the NOW over to the left (in the direction of the past) and looking at what NOW is becoming, is when you get your first look at the market."
yes even though other traders were also calling bull on jack.
soon I expect he will say he has advocated pre-trading and anticpating levels and prices all this time.
I can see it now his multiple platforms will allow him to always be in. He has preloaded the turning points of all the five minute charts.
Thereby he picks off the corners 40 times at day at least.
Of course i would then wonder if he knew the turning prices, why he was drawing lines and monitoring price and volume and the str thing and the cash markets.
Seems like a lot of work if you already know the turning points on a five minute chart 40 different times.
soon I expect he will say he has advocated pre-trading and anticpating levels and prices all this time.
I can see it now his multiple platforms will allow him to always be in. He has preloaded the turning points of all the five minute charts.
Thereby he picks off the corners 40 times at day at least.
Of course i would then wonder if he knew the turning prices, why he was drawing lines and monitoring price and volume and the str thing and the cash markets.
Seems like a lot of work if you already know the turning points on a five minute chart 40 different times.
Mr. Hershey,
Intriguing observations about the workings of the market, to say the least. I have spent some time the past couple of days reading a portion of the volumes of data which you have presented on ET over the years.
For the moment I was wondering if you or anyone could give a link, prior post - whatever, containing the most detailed information on the DOM indicator and the Gaussian curve fitting of volume data.
In an earlier post I discussed volume with Spydertrader and it is clear from what I have read so far that your approach to volume is unique and very different from what I use, which is primarily Wyckoffian plus a few minor observations of my own which are distinct from his. Whatever works consistently would seem to be the best way to judge the utility of an approach.
As an aside, I have noticed that, for whatever reasons, your material seems to invite a huge amount of negative press. You have the patience and persistence of Job to put up with all that crap. Another point is that seeing that there are thousands of pages of material related to your method, which no doubt you have talked about thousands of times, it is entirely understandable (might I say adaptive) that you employ what I will call Hersheyspeak when responding to questions from new visitors.
Finally when I said your method was arcane, it was not meant as a slur. My method is likewise arcane. For example:
For GOOG only: If the intraday high is made first, then 97.9% of the time (238/243 from 442 intraday observations) the intraday low will be less than (236) or equal to (2) the premarket low. If you try and use this information in a strictly probabilistic fashion, without appropriate attention to a myriad of other market tells, you will get slaughtered.
lj
Soros: We make money because we know that we don't know.
Intriguing observations about the workings of the market, to say the least. I have spent some time the past couple of days reading a portion of the volumes of data which you have presented on ET over the years.
For the moment I was wondering if you or anyone could give a link, prior post - whatever, containing the most detailed information on the DOM indicator and the Gaussian curve fitting of volume data.
In an earlier post I discussed volume with Spydertrader and it is clear from what I have read so far that your approach to volume is unique and very different from what I use, which is primarily Wyckoffian plus a few minor observations of my own which are distinct from his. Whatever works consistently would seem to be the best way to judge the utility of an approach.
As an aside, I have noticed that, for whatever reasons, your material seems to invite a huge amount of negative press. You have the patience and persistence of Job to put up with all that crap. Another point is that seeing that there are thousands of pages of material related to your method, which no doubt you have talked about thousands of times, it is entirely understandable (might I say adaptive) that you employ what I will call Hersheyspeak when responding to questions from new visitors.
Finally when I said your method was arcane, it was not meant as a slur. My method is likewise arcane. For example:
For GOOG only: If the intraday high is made first, then 97.9% of the time (238/243 from 442 intraday observations) the intraday low will be less than (236) or equal to (2) the premarket low. If you try and use this information in a strictly probabilistic fashion, without appropriate attention to a myriad of other market tells, you will get slaughtered.
lj
Soros: We make money because we know that we don't know.
Quote from jem:
yes even though other traders were also calling bull on jack.
soon I expect he will say he has advocated pre-trading and anticpating levels and prices all this time.
I can see it now his multiple platforms will allow him to always be in. He has preloaded the turning points of all the five minute charts.
Thereby he picks off the corners 40 times at day at least.
Of course i would then wonder if he knew the turning prices, why he was drawing lines and monitoring price and volume and the str thing and the cash markets.
Seems like a lot of work if you already know the turning points on a five minute chart 40 different times.
There is an interesting relationship between work and making money.
A lot of people here do see three levels of channels and the three levels of guassians. So there are additional aids as well.
Spyder points out the heirarchy of how the transition to becoming a trader is made.
The core of P and V and then the spheres of the onion that are added in four more stages.
It could be like what sportsm en and musicians do the hone their knowledge, skills and experience. It was for me. There is an article elsewhere on how outstanding persons in various endeavors become very skilled in their prusuits.
You do not usually post with regard to acquisition of skills, but here you say that the 20 to 40 opportunities a day are, perhaps apparent.
They become apparent as more and more tools are applied properly.
Price only is how many people trade.
Some add volume as a leading indicator of price.
How many deal with three concurrent channels nested inside one another? Does anyone consider their sequential relationship? I do.
The same is true for volume and the same is true for P and V combined.
Trading traverses of the existing trend gives another level of sensitivity and doubles the frequency of trading from 7 trades a day to 15.
Take all of the above and apply it to another market that leads what is traded. I do that and I am past advanced beginner and an intermediate. 15 trades still transpire but they are more effective and more efficient.
So I observe the stretch and squeeze that defines the aribrtage of fair value I get yet one more indicator of the leading relationship of this to what I trade. As an advanced intermediate I get to understand how indicators work to lead the price of what I trade. This lets me now front run the msart money and I have an even more precise understanding of how exits and entries of consecutive trades converge upon one another.
Now I add five more major tools to do expert trading and to be able to complete up to 40 trades a day. All of these lead the price of what I trade.
I am at three harmonics of the price periodicity by now and all the internals of th channels are available to me. There are basically 16 internals of any given channel on any fractal.
There are disussions of snippets of coding elsewhere. There are commentaryies on the BOT's of the markets. It is more than etched in stone as to how much blood you can get out of a turnip by these developers. Big money shows the record of this work.
As you say how much work does a person put in to make so much money.
Work is either the long labor of getting to expert or it is the work of doing the coding to take a model and develop it to get some level of results with so much capital.
Or work can be sitting at a machine all date glued to it to make each trade.
Work could be doing a model of this or that and perfecting model after model to put them together.
Or work could be check out all the edges that show up and then compare them.
What does it look like if a person picks and choses to assemble what is needed to be expert?
Its very pretty. After that there is little work to do.
It is a pleasant continuing experience of extracing what the market offers day after day taking trades is something that happens right after about 17 leading indicators tell you it is NOW the moment to take the action.
Taking actions can be just a process that is dictated by the market as the market tells you what to do. You have to adjust the cars to the capacity aoccasionally and you have to sequence a series of partial fills to make the turn ocassionally but that is not really work since your screen is blinking on and off all the time with the answers.
The above said. I hope it is getting a little clearer to you about how a lot of others like me trade.
There is no preloading of 40 turning points (corners). The market does that in a way that is a result of sequences transpiring as SOP for the market. It is the market's job and three things funnel this info to a trader. Hardware manufactured to work in trading, software that processes encripted data, and a web delivering market data to the software.
What a trader sees if he is mechanically trading is blinking lights and a display that is automatically annotated. What a manual trader sees and does is get feeds from platforms, annotate and monitor, analyze, decide and take timely actions.
It is fun to be facetious because it is fun for others to read. Here people get to see if you are being facetious or I am being facetious. Or both.
The work that I have enjoyed the most of all is getting this paradigm up to full speed on an expert level. the work of getting a thing up to speed is dotting all the I's and crossing all the T's so the system is non probabalistic and the data sets are complete and the given value of an element in the data set only has one of two answers. And all autimated. Mathematically this is a very cool place since there is no predicting, guessing and protection needed.
It is a three legged stool. P, V and the logic in binary. Mechanical or manual. By the end of 2007 we will have SCT manual completed in ET in the journals.
Quote from jem:
I just love this - we ripped apart Jacks script about trading in the "now" and "monitoring".
I told him to get those corners on the five minute charts you had to have those corners pre-traded and set up. Because those prices do not last long enough for people trading in the now.
I made it a point to him that you could not make as many trades as he suggested (20 plus) without anticipating the market. Now Jack makes this adjustment to his script as if it were his all along.
He just throws to the road side hundreds of pages about trading in the "now" with:
"To get down where the rubber meets the road, the NOW is not enough even if it is coupled to the very very near past to make vectors. By moving the NOW over to the left (in the direction of the past) and looking at what NOW is becoming, is when you get your first look at the market."
Really? I don't think so.
People must, because of several aspects of how the planet works, trade in NOW.
That will always be the same.
Looking to the right of NOW or moving NOW a little to the left is a samantic movement. You can do it both ways if you wish.
As you adjust your peripheral vision with eye drops or otherwise, you get to see what is to the right of NOW. Squint to see farther to the two sides of the BBid and BAsk. Both are in the future. About 10 show at any given time on most platforms. I have stalactites too. I watch the four teams play in their jerseys. units, tens hundreds and thousands. They are on the BBid, BAsk and all that is showiung on the DOM. All that is showing is future numbers. The NOW numbers show on the top line of the T&S which is streaming continually as is the DOM in a slightly different way. Additional coding, gives you all the adition vector values that you need to go binary.
Its fun to see the game played and what the result is going to be as the display keeps you posted in all those prorata ways.
No one is fiighting with you keep your opinions as you wish.
I can say one thing though you are doing a lot of work. It is a shame it doesn't have any financial rewards.
Quote from jack hershey:
Really? I don't think so.
People must, because of several aspects of how the planet works, trade in NOW.
That will always be the same.
Looking to the right of NOW or moving NOW a little to the left is a samantic movement. You can do it both ways if you wish.
As you adjust your peripheral vision with eye drops or otherwise, you get to see what is to the right of NOW. Squint to see farther to the two sides of the BBid and BAsk. Both are in the future. About 10 show at any given time on most platforms. I have stalactites too. I watch the four teams play in their jerseys. units, tens hundreds and thousands. They are on the BBid, BAsk and all that is showiung on the DOM. All that is showing is future numbers. The NOW numbers show on the top line of the T&S which is streaming continually as is the DOM in a slightly different way. Additional coding, gives you all the adition vector values that you need to go binary.
Its fun to see the game played and what the result is going to be as the display keeps you posted in all those prorata ways.
No one is fiighting with you keep your opinions as you wish.
I can say one thing though you are doing a lot of work. It is a shame it doesn't have any financial rewards.
jack I was your left edge. Your now is may past.
I already did this stuff back when doing it was a real edge and I made plenty of money and so did the traders I backed.
In fact some of your stuff is just plain silly.
You talk about cash lead futures or is is futures lead cash.
don't you realize there are two different kinds of programs. Sometimes the program comes on and buys the futures and then the cash gets bid up. Sometimes they buy the stocks and sell the futures.
Sometimes if you are at one of the big round figures in the Dow you can anticipate 3 programs of support or resistance.
There is not just one leader cash or futures. it is why Don teaches his guys to watch prem. I was taught that by them in 1996 and I eventually turned my studies into a program front running machine. But the super large majority of that edge has been arbed away.
Your script is so misleading it is a joke.
Quote from jem:
You talk about cash lead futures or is is futures lead cash.
There is not just one leader cash or futures. it is why Don teaches his guys to watch prem. I was taught that by them in 1996 and I eventually turned my studies into a program front running machine. But the super large majority of that edge has been arbed away.
Your script is so misleading it is a joke.
For purposes of pithiness I edited your post.
Is the time frame of the trade of consequence with respect to the validity of your statements? Are "arb" type trades transacted very quickly [say in less (quite possibly a lot less) than 5 minutes]? Are trades for a longer time frame more apt to be $-led cf futures-led or is that also variable, in your opinion?
lj
A quotation from Walter J. Moore's "Textbook of Physical Chemistry":
"For the complete description of a system, the numerical values of certain variables must be reported. .... Of these variables, a certain number may be independently varied, but the rest (of these variables) are fixed by the values chosen for the independent variables .... The number of (these) variables that can be independently varied without changing the state of the system is called the number of degrees of freedom of the system, or, sometimes, the variance."
If this statement has applicability to the current value of the market, then as best I can determine there are at most three degrees of freedom (Price, Volume and Time) and possibly just two (Price-Volume and Time).
By the current market I mean whatever the most recent T&S print is for whatever one might be looking at. I pick this time-stamped, price-volume pair as being representative of the most current value of the market to eliminate all those things that are being considered (thought about or however you might wish to describe the process) prior to acting (pulling the trigger).
I am not of course saying that there are not those who are very good at "anticipating or front-running" the market but rather that in the definition of the system, "The Current Value of the Market" one cannot include those things which have not yet happened.
There are innumerable variables which can be constructed from the P-V-T troika or the PV-T couplet but they cannot be called degrees of freedom if my suggestion is correct.
Now having said all this, my first job as an experimentalist is to set about destroying the hypothesis and if anyone is interested in doing that, and then, as a philosopher friend of mine says, "dismembering the corpse", please deliver the death blow and I will supply the scalpel, with a #11 blade affixed to it, to begin the postmortem dissection.
lj
"For the complete description of a system, the numerical values of certain variables must be reported. .... Of these variables, a certain number may be independently varied, but the rest (of these variables) are fixed by the values chosen for the independent variables .... The number of (these) variables that can be independently varied without changing the state of the system is called the number of degrees of freedom of the system, or, sometimes, the variance."
If this statement has applicability to the current value of the market, then as best I can determine there are at most three degrees of freedom (Price, Volume and Time) and possibly just two (Price-Volume and Time).
By the current market I mean whatever the most recent T&S print is for whatever one might be looking at. I pick this time-stamped, price-volume pair as being representative of the most current value of the market to eliminate all those things that are being considered (thought about or however you might wish to describe the process) prior to acting (pulling the trigger).
I am not of course saying that there are not those who are very good at "anticipating or front-running" the market but rather that in the definition of the system, "The Current Value of the Market" one cannot include those things which have not yet happened.
There are innumerable variables which can be constructed from the P-V-T troika or the PV-T couplet but they cannot be called degrees of freedom if my suggestion is correct.
Now having said all this, my first job as an experimentalist is to set about destroying the hypothesis and if anyone is interested in doing that, and then, as a philosopher friend of mine says, "dismembering the corpse", please deliver the death blow and I will supply the scalpel, with a #11 blade affixed to it, to begin the postmortem dissection.
lj