Do Trendlines work?

Quote from kiwi_trader:

Because you can't do the analysis or make it work doesn't mean that others else can't do the analysis or make it work.

But that's just as well or trading would be easy, right?

To each his own :)
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I think you have it completely backwards.I have done the analysis,and know with certainty what "form" of trendlines have statistical validity and those that offer very little.

I never said others cant make trendline analysis work. There are people who can be profitable in games with negative exectations,I just choose not to be one of them....
 
all relationships have been destroyed....usd/gold, oil/gold, retail stocks/oil, transports/oil.....there is no relative strength/weakness anymore either....look at how well the trendlines in oil served over the last 48 hours....all markets are being cocmpletely fucked with and kept in a box by "them".
 
LOL. I've also analysed trend lines in the manner suggested and guess what? Trendlines work.

Some say that trends don't work. Some say that trendlines don't work. Some surround their prejudices in warm words that just suggest that anyone who believes something else is a moron.

"and to think otherwise would be foolish"
"sheer folly and is analogous to traders beleiving that"
"There are people who can be profitable in games with negative exectations,I just choose not to be one of them."

Run a spell check. Funny world isn't it. I love ET !!!

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The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief.
That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing.
So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.:)
 
i too am profitable in a game of negative expectations and have been for a very long time......dont be so quick to dismiss, you may learn a thing or twelve.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

LOL. I've also analysed trend lines in the manner suggested and guess what? Trendlines work.


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Care to share a snippet of that code from your various systems which are profitable based on trendlines??

Now that you have declared that "Trendlines Work",I guess that pretty much substantiates everything you have said....which is ZERO...

what other magical PREDICTIVE tools do you have stored away in that toolbox of yours??





____________________________

The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief.
That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing.
So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.:)
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Everything works! Indicators, Trendlines, Fib, Gann, etc., etc., etc. MA's lead and project future turning points. It's the skill of the user that determines what works and what doesn't. For many years doctors said surgery didn't work and that surgeons were butchers and had no place in medicine. Today we have the two-bit operators that say TA or parts of TA doesn't work - these are as much the quacks as the snake oil salesmen that sell magic systems to dreamers. Develop your skills through hard graft over a prolonged period of time and you'll come to realise TA has more working tools than you will ever manage to master. Trendlines are super powered tools but like an F1 car, you need to learn how to unlock their power. They can predict a reversal if price is signaling exhaustion - otherwise drill down in timeframes to catch the reversal signal there.
 
Quote from georgie:

i too am profitable in a game of negative expectations and have been for a very long time......dont be so quick to dismiss, you may learn a thing or twelve.
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The fact that you are profitable in a game of negative expectations does not speak on the tools one uses.It speaks of the person applying the tools....

You will have an exceedingly difficult time convincing me that trendlines have "predictive powers"..that was my claim,and i will not be budging anytime soon no matter how many "empty" boasts are made....
 
Quote from taowave:


You will have an exceedingly difficult time convincing me that trendlines have "predictive powers"
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Maybe its not the right description .

Maybe "speculative" powers would be more appropriate, their just a line on the chart, your doing the speculating. You have to decide the odds of any particular resistance, real or imagined, actually holding, and if trendlines help you do that, then they "work".

stating the obvious, again
 
As it says above, they work for me -- maybe i'm just one of the lucky ones !

Cant offer much to say, but I'm a true believer in the linear regression channel, which is essentially (dont yell at me about this) nothing but historic support and resistance trend lines.

One can easily then use a single trend line in much the same manner as the LRC, and invariably, if the stock or currency breaks that trend line, it has now set up another trend --- its purely a visual tool that works for me long term or intraday, is done automatically by my software/hand drawn, and i count on them constantly !

enjoy and trade well

mp
 
Quote from taowave:

If you want to believe that trendlines have PREDICTIVE value,you go ahead and carry that torch...
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I have to agree with kiwi on this.

I posted this chart during the morning session. In addition, I posted this analysis explaining how to properly use trendlines. Both the Purple Down Trend Channel, as well as the Dark Blue Up Trend Channel were drawn in prior to the market open - using points from the previous day. In fact, I drew in the trendlines yesterday. Recreate the same trendlines on your own charts and see where price heads next. Feel free to claim coincidence, or that I really drew in the trendlines using hindsight. However, as someone who sees the same phenomenon repeat (day after day) in both equities and futures, I know trendlines work.

Believe me; Don't believe me. The choice remains yours alone.

Ironically, lots of things I can't see appear to work just fine. Gravity, Electricity and Oxygen are but a few examples which come to mind.

Good Trading to you all.

- Spydertrader
 
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