Do markets change? Trend Following.

v. strange the link does not work for me whether I click it or copy the traget location in the url bar of the browser - I just get the "The topic or post you requested does not exist" from the forum...

Anyway, that other thread you linked to seems pretty good - and running some tests like that are probably good idea to see how markets "evolve"...
 
Quote from JezLiberty:

v. strange the link does not work for me whether I click it or copy the traget location in the url bar of the browser - I just get the "The topic or post you requested does not exist" from the forum...
More...

Sorry - I have just realised that post is in the users section of the forum - not open to non TB users. I'll post the parameters here.
 
The parameters:



gparam_862.jpg

tma_939.jpg




The actual parameters used to produce the equity curve in my prior post were slightly different (only very slightly) but the point remains. Simple indicators can and do produce good results. The portfolio contained over 100 different futures contracts.
 
“Occasionally, someone trying to promote something or start a debate will argue that trend following rules must always change due to changing market conditions. This is nonsense. It is a specious argument.”


What super intelligent genius can have written that on his website I wonder?

I had a meeting with representatives of Dunn in London today and most of the discussion revolved around the considerable changes they had to make to their systems to take account of changing market conditions from 2000 on-wards. Yes, that's right - you remember? The period Dunn had a 70% draw down?

Dunn suffered a 70% draw down as a result of changing market conditions and he then had to make very considerable changes to his systems to put his business back on track. That is what they told me today. All CTAs make changes. If they don't they eventually blow up and die.
 
AFJ Garner said:
“Occasionally, someone trying to promote something or start a debate will argue that trend following rules must always change due to changing market conditions. This is nonsense. It is a specious argument.”


What super intelligent genius can have written that on his website I wonder?

I had a meeting with representatives of Dunn in London today and most of the discussion revolved around the considerable changes they had to make to their systems to take account of changing market conditions from 2000 on-wards. Yes, that's right - you remember? The period Dunn had a 70% draw down?

Dunn suffered a 70% draw down as a result of changing market conditions and he then had to make very considerable changes to his systems to put his business back on track. That is what they told me today. All CTAs make changes. If they don't they eventually blow up and die.
More...

Sad, and/but True!

loza said:
Yes, markets always change. What was good a while back never stays the same....
Having said this; I do not think that Trend Following as such will ever be out of style...
There will be long term, trending markets in certain market segments as long as there are markets.
What changes is trend discovery techniques and entry procedures.
To fully understand this you must understand the 3 or 4 markets types.
Not all markets are trending at a given time, that was known in the original turtle's time and they knew it full well that market selection (based on a technical criteria, and money management will bring home the bacon)

I like to get into forex markets based on this concept but the entry is a little tricky and I doubt it to be as simple as 20-day breakout....
I found this web site on this very subject...
http://www.theturboturtle.com
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top