Do markets change? Trend Following.

[Druid]

Its hard to quote all your post
I'll Unswer my way.

1). Af couse markets are variable just because the main reflection of it is index.
Lets look on it narrowly.
the index composition is vary as near as damn it , thats why some trand followers are require some kind of tuning.
its non a radical changing of main Idea, but some kind of optimization.
The Idea of all markets work and all times is the same as perpetual motion machine.

2). Volatility.
There many Ideas of tracking it.
Use contra trading Ideas when the market is 10% squeezz? af cause NO.

3). In any types of market trendfollowers are survival than all another. \I'v seen somewhere \I fogot where\ the research based on CTA's & funds Trackrecords and in the period 15 years 80% of systems that has been survived was TFollowers\

4). The circularity of market.

 

[AFJ Garner]

The same salesman who back in mid October made the following comment on his website:

“Occasionally, someone trying to promote something or start a debate will argue that trend following rules must always change due to changing market conditions. This is nonsense. It is a specious argument.”

Now quotes (with apparent approval?) the following comment referring to Leda Brage the "Brazilian trend follower of Blue Crest":

“She’s constantly stressing the need to upgrade and refine trading systems, that you can’t just walk away and expect them to perform with markets shifting so quickly.”

How very confusing!

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from AFJ Garner:

Whatever criticisms have been levelled at Curtis Faith he is a superb software programmer and if anyone is capable of backtesting the Turtle Rules it is certainly him. He also has the advantage of having actually traded them!

If "whatever criticisms" have been leveled? Give me a break with such weasel pronouncements.

Curtis Faith saw his money management firm end up in a CFTC investigation. That investigation (and subsequent permanent bar) revealed that Faith's firm was embezzled by an employee who was using client money to buy barbie dolls (can't make this up). It also revealed Faith's firm was using the Donchian system to trade client monies. Not only was there embezzlement, but there was awful performance. Read the government deposition files:

Document One

Document Two

Even for his Turtle time I could not find any record of Faith's performance except his "word". Other Turtles' performance was kept by Barclays reporting, but not for Faith.

At the end of the day there is far more going on with the Turtles than "rules" -- emotional and entrepreneurial intelligence plays a huge role. You won't hear this from Garner as he is an apologist who would like to pretend all of this doesn't exist. If you are new to Turtle myth you may want to take a look at Chapters, 11, 12, 13 and the Afterword <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0061241717/trendfollowin-20" target="_blank">here</a>.

At the end of the day I don't mind criticism from Anthony Garner. He is very useful, but he should make clear his intentions (to sell his new book) and associations. If he doesn't, I clearly will.

 

[AFJ Garner]

Quote from Trend Following:


At the end of the day there is far more going on with the Turtles than "rules" -- emotional and entrepreneurial intelligence plays a huge role.

No, there really is nothing more going on at all. All you need are the bare rules which you can find using Google and searching for "The Original Turtle Trading Rules" and a good backtesting engine. With the program I use the rules are pre-programmed for you by Curtis Faith. You will find that System 1 simply does not work any more. System 2 does not work well either. Both can however be improved by a little ingenuity.

I also recommend Faith's excellent book "Way of the Turtle" which can be found on Amazon.

It is sad that his fund ended in disaster. I have no knowledge of Curtis' trading prowess during his Turtle days - some say he won big, some say he did not.

No, as I have patiently explained before I have no association with Curtis. Nor have I any need or desire to promote a book. It was fun to write a book and it did prompt me to do a great deal of thinking and hard work; I believe the research I did has improved my trading.

I am glad Michael finds me useful. I find him useful too. Some of his assertions have prompted me to sharpen up my research and test things out further.

There is no harm in having differences of opinion - those diffferences are afterall what makes a market.

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from AFJ Garner:

It is sad that his fund ended in disaster.

Let me get this straight: it is "sad" that Faith's fund was permanently barred by the CFTC? Why is that sad? The government when it does things right is supposed to protect customers. Weren't they doing that here?

 

[AFJ Garner]

Oh I entirely agree with you. I meant sad for everyone, including of course the investors - the ones who actually suffered financial loss. You are entirely right about the need for investor protection.

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from AFJ Garner:

Oh I entirely agree with you. I meant sad for everyone, including of course the investors - the ones who actually suffered. You are entirely right about the need for investor protection.

Yeah, but everyone here with a pulse knows you were only sad for your friend. Maybe time to find friends whose firm's are not caught up in CFTC dragnets. Or maybe before you go recommending someone to new traders you would be forthcoming in all that you know about said person?

 

[AFJ Garner]

Gosh, no - all I am recommending is Curtis Faith's book and the back testing engine which he helped to create.

You may well have a copy of Trading Blox - I don't know. Since Curtis' day it has been enormously further improved - and it was a hell of a piece of software in the first place.

I have literally spent thousands of hours backtesting strategies over the past few years and it has proved an incredible tool.

I honestly have no personal knowledge of Curtis at all. I have never even met him. But his book and the software he helped design are excellent.

I am not recommending "Curtis". But you are right - I DO feel sorry for the man. The collapse of that fund must have been very painful. I also feel for the investors.

 

[Trend Following]

Quote from AFJ Garner:

The collapse of that fund must have been very painful.

For Faith? Why? I guess there would have been no "pain" if the firm wasn't nailed by the CFTC? Or better yet, I guess Madoff felt "pain" too? Did you read those government depositions for Faith's firm? If not, why not? Don't you think that if you are going promote someone you should at least do some due diligence? You did go to law school right? And since you now profess all kinds of distance don't you think should note that you are one of a handful thanked in Faith's book?

 

[AFJ Garner]

As I have said with much patience all I am recommending is the software originally created by Curtis Faith and an excellent book he has written about back testing trading systems.

I have no need to distance myself from Curtis Faith since I have never had any connection with him in the first place.

I have told you many times before that (1) I have never spoken to Curtis Faith over the telephone (2) I have never met him (3) I have no association or "friendship" with him (4) I reviewed his book at his request since he had come to respect my trading views from posts on the Trading Blox Forum.

I feel sorry for Curtis as a fellow human being.