Do markets change? Trend Following.

[Lucrum]

Quote from jack hershey:


Below is today's market and it is evident that doing the X and Y thing seems to work..

Duly noted, the ole X and Y thingy huh?

..I know this is bush beating; but bushes are there and they get beaten...

Ooooooh that's some really...deep...shit there jack.

... Lets emphasize the anti whipsaw concept mentioned...

ever consider an anti obfuscation concept?

...I know the author has whipsaw losses. He needed an anti whipsaw gift so I gave it to him ...

I hope your not talking about what I think your talking about. YUCK!

...The anti whip saw given gift does not stop giving. as companies 1 through 6 could see if the author gave the gift he got to them. Not commerciallizing it forgoes that possibility. Retail traders could use it and pass it forward, however. That is what retail traders are doing...

Is this why we call you wacko jacko?

... there are six of each; you know this by counting 12 moves and dividing by two. Or you count one side and know that the other side is equal. Or you draw RTLs and count 12 BO's and dived by two. Or you color the trendlines and count the balck ones and count the red ones and get 6 of each...

GET OUT OF HERE, twelve divided by two is SIX? Hold the press...

That would be 12 linked trades making money on each. Say you wanted to trade the LTL and the RTL to make the money offered between them. If so then you just do 36 linked trades. This involves annotating. Annotating is not listed in the index either.

Hmmmm "linked" trades hey?
They have anything to do with the missing link?
Also it sounds like that book needs an updated index.

...Outside bars are not mentioned in the book's index either...

Well WTF is mentioned?

Notice that they overlap beginning on the FTT and ending overlap on the former RTL. Failure to Traverse (FTT) and Right Trend Line (RTL) are not in the index either. The overlap is the B2 and R2 of the B2B and R2R, respectively.

That's all well and good jack but don't you think a PT crossing over (or under) the minimizing thresh hold of either a GF or BF and subsequently morphing into an LZ or LZ II would take precedence everywhere except maybe bizaro world?

..The gift given to the author is taking on some nice helpful aspects...

That author sure is one lucky guy.

...Why isn't there a listing in the index for trendlines in the book?

I don't know but I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to find out.

...Don't look up "anticipation" in the index, it is not there either... Don't look up end effects in the book; it is not there either.

Well that settles it for me, I'm not buying that book. Even if your magical "gift" is inside.

 

[Druid]

Quote from JezLiberty:

Thanks for posting this. Is this something you are trading though or just a back-test?

Can I ask why you chose these markets though? Would the other ones display worse performance?

Here it was taken

{ Turtle Trading System
Riccardo Ronco, 1999, London
rrb3@btinternet.com }

This is for TS & Omega2k
Code is absolute open from 90x
If its interesting I can put it here.


I'm tested with out reinvest and with one contract becouse I always do this way, in the testing period.
I'm not trading it.
Just testing for demonstrate aberration.

This is 5 diffrent contracts...
EU,CL,S,C...
"Piramiding" till 10x per type of contract.
Here is code.
http://konkop.narod.ru/turtle.htm

 

[AFJ Garner]

With respect, the code you post represents a simple 20/10 channel breakout and does not begin to approach the subtlety of the Turtle System. For one thing, I can not see on what basis you have assumed the addition of new units – the Turtles added further units up to a certain limit when the trade went ½ ATR in their favour. I repeat that single contract testing is not useful in this respect either.

I can only suggest that you take a look at the document Curtis Faith provided.

I can not see from the code what commission and slippage assumptions you have made – I would very much like to know. Also you do not appear to use the Turtle volatility based stop.

I applaud your effort to test the Turtle system – few other have done so out of the myriad of those who express interest in the system. But I fear that with the very, very basic coding you are using and with the software you employ, you do not have a hope of accurately reflecting the type of equity curve which a Turtle would achieve in today’s markets.

 

[Druid]

1). This is not mine System.
\authorship is above\

But I fear that with the very, very basic coding you are using and with the software you employ, you do not have a hope of accurately reflecting the type of equity curve which a Turtle would achieve in today’s markets.

2). I'm using TS and my mind. I thing its enough for take some money from market.

3). Im not using "turtules" for trading.
thats just example.
4). I can not understand what you are try to manifest? \if u are PR menager of this sys, just tell us, and no questions will...\

Ps. commission 20 usd per side, no "slippage" on the day trading needed.
All simbols where taken absolute random.

And special for fans of superstochastic matrix, neuro,ultrs-super-mega systems on the super servers
this system on the portofolio of 2 futures 15 min this year from jan

Druid.

 

[loza]

Yes, markets always change. What was good a while back never stays the same....
Having said this; I do not think that Trend Following as such will ever be out of style...
There will be long term, trending markets in certain market segments as long as there are markets.
What changes is trend discovery techniques and entry procedures.
To fully understand this you must understand the 3 or 4 markets types.
Not all markets are trending at a given time, that was known in the original turtle's time and they knew it full well that market selection (based on a technical criteria, and money management will bring home the bacon)

I like to get into forex markets based on this concept but the entry is a little tricky and I doubt it to be as simple as 20-day breakout....
I found this web site on this very subject...
http://www.theturboturtle.com

 

[AFJ Garner]

Let me make myself quite clear.

1) I very much appreciate your posting the code of a very simple 20/10 channel breakout system and some tests results on two different portfolios. Thank you. It is so refreshing to see actual results of an actual system posted and so pleasant not to see the thread degenerate into the usual round of pointless insults.

2) The system you posted uses the same basic entries and exits as Turtle System 1 but beyond that does not begin to include the complexities of the Turtle Rules. With respect, you have NOT backtested the Turtle System.

3) No, I am not trying to promote The Original Turtle Rules or any other system.

4) The purpose of this thread was simply to state that I do not agree with the system vendor who made the statements I quoted in the first post on this thread.

5) To restate my position: (A) Markets do change and (B) Systems need to be adapted to prevent degeneration.

 

[Mav88]

Hi AFJ,

I think showing that markets change would be quite simple in the case of smaller merkets like bellies. All one would have to do is examine the major players over time. If the players change then so does the game.

Academics have done a little on the time dependance of the Hurst coefficient, etc. but that's probably not what you are looking for.

 

[AFJ Garner]

I do think that it is a very interesting topic and that there is certainly room for different opinions. I am no mathematician or statistician. I am just a plain workmanlike individual who has spent literally thousands of hours back testing and thinking about trend following and trading. I have also traded trend following successfully while continuing to refine my thoughts and my systems.

The funny thing is, it is easy to come up with a system as of today’s date which would have worked successfully over the past 40 years without degeneration. With the benefit of hindsight and with some degree of curve fitting no doubt. I agree with all who say that trends will continue – they must or markets could not move. The difficulty lies in capturing profits from those trends and not going bust or getting scared out of the market from a whopping great drawdown.

Will my system(s) continue to work as well in the next few years as they have back tested over the past 40(or at all)? I don’t know. I hope so but I am going to keep on my toes just in case. I can not help but think it pays these days to trade longer term, slower systems than in the past. I can not help but think that maybe, just maybe, the likes of Dunn and JWH may have become a little too complacent earlier in the decade. A little too happy to sit back and proudly proclaim they had been trading the same system for 40 years.

 

[Mav88]

One can say whatever when you have a $B, I don't believe anything but what I can see empirically.

Trends, meaning market movements that last longer than a tick, exist on all timescales. It is how all directional traders make money and of course they exist.

It's all the same to me whether it's Turtles, rabbits, or any directional system.

 

[AFJ Garner]

Very, very true. Double or triple MA, channel breakouts, a moving average with an envelope......turltes......rabbits.........turbo charged or otherwise...and so forth. There are so many ways to capture a trend.

Pity the the guys starting out can't be told that. And that they can't accept it. That way they could spend their money on a few decent trading books and a decent back testing engine instead of feeding some of the sharks out there.