Do I have a case?

[sjfan]

Re-reading your post a few times, I don't think I misunderstood you. You claim that that final step A + B + C +D isn't done until the very last moment. I claim that that's wrong. There's no point in waiting and the statistical agencies would want to final error check the numbers.

This isn't the KFC.

Quote from xflat2186:

Sounds like you misunderstood what I was saying. There is NO mystery on how government statistical data is calculated. In fact the formula needs to be public information because the actual data is meaningless unless it’s known that the sample size etc is consistent each time that data is released. For example take the non-farm payroll number. If they changed the sample size and methods for collecting that data then the month over month and the year over year in addition to the number released at the time is worthless.

On the other hand in all of that statistical data there are variables which are collected each month or quarter or week which make up the final statistical r3elease, The government does for security reasons ( not national security but for data integrity a la leaking the number security) does not tally the data until the number is released.

For example and sticking with the non farms number:
If the number released is A+B+C+D= Non farm payrolls. A, B,C and D are not totaled until the number is due for release. Granted this is a simple example.
I believe the EIA’s weekly estimates work the same way as to protect the integrity of the report. I am sure if you feel like scouring their website its on there.

 

[atticus]

Quote from BPtrader:

My personal experience confirms what you said. Most of the reports were written up days before the release time.

It's important to note that even the newest report is about some time period in the past. That's because we spent lots of time collecting data, processing them and writing up a report.

There is no way we can collect fresh information of today for a tomorrow's release. That just doesn't happen in a government bureaucratic system. The only overnight reporting happens in the commercial world where Gallup poll collects TV ratings through their meters attached to your home TV sets.

In my case last week, I went through the inventory report on Tuesday, two days before it was released on Thursday. The report sat on the desk since Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday was the usual release time but it was a holiday (Veterans' Day) last week, so the release time was delayed to Thursday.

Be sure to post that shit here 5 minutes before the data is officially released this week. You can trade it fat and ET can help to push it. Wow, they left the report on Beeks' desk and forgot all about Vet's Day.

 

[xflat2186]

Its my understanding that the quality of the components is checked thoroughly and consistently before each of those factors is sent to the appropriate central office of whichever government department is releasing the data.

Sticking to the same example on non farm payrolls… Lets just say there are 6 regions from which the data is collected and then each of those regions is per capita weighted for the final number. Each contributing regions data is “sanity” checked to use your word. They are not combined for the final tally until a short time before the number is due for release to protect the integrity of the data. I am not talking 5 minutes before release but indeed that morning.

This is the way I was taught how the system works. My former direct boss at the large IB I used to work for was with the FED for a long long time and I assume he has no reason to be untruthful.

 

[xflat2186]

Quote from BPtrader:

My personal experience confirms what you said. Most of the reports were written up days before the release time.

It's important to note that even the newest report is about some time period in the past. That's because we spent lots of time collecting data, processing them and writing up a report.

There is no way we can collect fresh information of today for a tomorrow's release. That just doesn't happen in a government bureaucratic system. The only overnight reporting happens in the commercial world where Gallup poll collects TV ratings through their meters attached to your home TV sets.

In my case last week, I went through the inventory report on Tuesday, two days before it was released on Thursday. The report sat on the desk since Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday was the usual release time but it was a holiday (Veterans' Day) last week, so the release time was delayed to Thursday.

There is no "report" to be written up, its a data release. No one is saying anything about collecting "fresh" data over night either, the data from the EIA is not up to the minute.

 

[atticus]

Quote from xflat2186:

There is no "report" to be written up, its a data release. No one is saying anything about collecting "fresh" data over night either, the data from the EIA is not up to the minute.

You're so wrong. Of course there is a report written. Haven't you been reading this thread? You doubt his veracity?

 

[BPtrader]

Quote from xflat2186:

My former direct boss at the large IB I used to work for was with the FED for a long long time and I assume he has no reason to be untruthful.

Finally, you revealed the truth: you are imagining things, it is your "former direct boss" who told you some stories about FED.

Well, let me tell you this, FED even releases Bernanke's speech to Steve Liesman hours before Bernanke reads it to his audience. And I know who writes Bernanke's speech, and I know who has input into the speech. I personally deleted a few words in his speech to the Economic Club of New York today. He asked me why I deleted those words, I said to him: "too much for the market to handle."

In the oil case, the storage facilities managers faxed their numbers to the Energy Department on Friday afternoon the previous week. Yep, that is 5 (five) days before the release time. Repeat: 5 days before the release time.

 

[ShortSqueeze]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Definitely! You should contact the SEC and a lawyer and tell them exactly what you said here. I suspect you'll get what's coming to you

Is there any other trading or capital market forum (s) that omit this nonsense?

 

[atticus]

Quote from BPtrader:

Finally, you revealed the truth: you are imagining things, it is your "former direct boss" who told you some stories about FED.

Well, let me tell you this, FED even releases Bernanke's speech to Steve Liesman hours before Bernanke reads it to his audience.

In my case, the storage facilities managers faxed their numbers to the Energy Department on Friday afternoon the previous week. Yep, that is 5 (five) days before the release time. Repeat: 5 days before the release time.

You're entering the 5th dimension of retarded.

 

[xflat2186]

Quote from BPtrader:

Finally, you revealed the truth: you are imagining things, it is your "former direct boss" who told you some stories about FED.

Well, let me tell you this, FED even releases Bernanke's speech to Steve Liesman hours before Bernanke reads it to his audience.

Perhaps you could expand on what you believe I am imagining? Since you can read my mind... I am thinking of a number between 1 and 10, what is it?

There is no question that many times Bernanke's remarks are released to the press before he gives them, it depends on context his speech is being given in. FOMC remarks are not pre released. All of that is a moot point since we're not talking about the FED chief's remarks, we're talking about governement collected data.

 

[xflat2186]

Quote from atticus:

You're so wrong. Of course there is a report written. Haven't you been reading this thread? You doubt his veracity?

hey Atti, how you been??