Do i correctly understand futures trading risk in a worst case scenario?

If you don't close out a position and your account has a debit you owe them money. There's no way to get around that due to an LLC. Why should there be a way? If you take a position and lose you need to pay accordingly.
 
That's good news. Too much depending upon Meta AI on my part for answers. It claims even when flat, if the price of NQ goes up after i stop for the day, i will make money and if it goes down i will realize a loss when daily settlement occurs. !


LOL, i don't think we are going to get ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) any time soon.

These Large Language Models are more like Artificial Super DumbAss (ASD :D) and make shit up when asked a question that is outside their training set.
 
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Forget about what you have written. This is the worst-case scenario.

You entered a position.
Then suddenly,

-there is an Exchange problem and trading cannot be done

-the shark bites the ocean cable

-the internet service provider is on fire

When trading resumes, you are highly negative.


A few years ago, I had a not-so-big position trading OMX Exchange products.
Suddenly The exchange was down.
When the Exchange opened 4 hours later, I closed my position and lost about $5K.
To hell with OMX!


Good Luck!!!
 
If you don't close out a position and your account has a debit you owe them money. There's no way to get around that due to an LLC. Why should there be a way? If you take a position and lose you need to pay accordingly.

The discussed scenario was without holding a position at the time of drop.
 
What Maxinger describes, in general, is a disorderly market. Retail orders are delayed, market circuit brakers go off, MULTIPLE TIMES.

So there is a VERY real chance you could get caught in this. It happens so often, it should be considered in your plan.

Example: LEH bros collapse. I could not close SP500 future contracts for 45 minutes with a market* order at IB. Fortunately, profit just shrunk to about 1/5 of what possible if I could have closed within 1 minute of the open.

Don't be a newbie an think this is like making a purchase at an apple store. This is trading, exchanges, OTC, order flow, circuit brakers, HFT stepping in front etc.

* and the order was placed at 9PM EST before the next day open.
 
I'm a long time stock and ETF trader that recently changed to day trading NQ futures.

Help me make sure i understand correctly, exactly how daily settlement works.

Copied below is the list of largest Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures drops in points, since 1971:
Date Intraday Drop (points)
March 16, 2000 -1,144.50
April 14, 2000 -932.50
September 17, 2001 -746.50
January 20, 2008 -645.50
October 15, 2008 -634.50
August 8, 2011 -577.50
March 28, 2014 -544.25
January 3, 2019 -538.25
December 24, 2018 -526.50
May 5, 2010 -516.25

Now let's say i only trade the first hour of the day and i always close all positons and am flat after the first hour. For this study, let's say I'm positive after that first hour and again i have stopped trading for the day with no positions held. Then between that first hour of the day and the end of the day we have one of those rare 500 to 1144 point drops.

In a worst case scenario (1144 point drop) at end of day settlement if i was trading 1 contract of NQ, my account value goes down $91,520 (even if i was flat)?

If i was trading 10 contracts, my account value drops by $915,200 (even if i was flat)?

If i was trading 50 contracts, my account value drops by $4,576,000 (even if i was flat)?

Right so far? Is my understanding correct?

If so, is the best risk control, to keep funds in an LLC and let the entitiy go bankrupt if that happens?

What happens if I'm trading 50 contracts at a time in an IRA valued at $130k? Do i owe my broker between $4 million and $5 million?

You're both over-and-under thinking it.

There's a reason the MNQ exists, since May 2019...To save people like you from yourself.

That you have the unmitigated gall to even THINK of trading more than 1 NQ with less than $50,000 in your account is audacious...And then you talk of FIFTY NQ? The FACK is wrong with you?

Get FACK out, get FACK out bull in China shop...


And so the micros are for you.
 
You're both over-and-under thinking it.

There's a reason the MNQ exists, since May 2019...To save people like you from yourself.

That you have the unmitigated gall to even THINK of trading more than 1 NQ with less than $50,000 in your account is audacious...And then you talk of FIFTY NQ? The FACK is wrong with you?

I actually got to 100 NQ lots per trade back in 2008, admittedly 100 NQ had about the same notional value back then as 100MNQ does today.
 
I actually got to 100 NQ lots per trade back in 2008, admittedly 100 NQ had about the same notional value back then as 100MNQ does today.

"admittedly. the margin burden was 10-times less". So stop talking. Oy!

You deserve a punishment.

Memorize these lines in a week, or be banned from ET for a month.


Pffffhhhht.
 
You're both over-and-under thinking it.

There's a reason the MNQ exists, since May 2019...To save people like you from yourself.

That you have the unmitigated gall to even THINK of trading more than 1 NQ with less than $50,000 in your account is audacious...And then you talk of FIFTY NQ? The FACK is wrong with you?

Get FACK out, get FACK out bull in China shop...


And so the micros are for you.
It was hypothetical question.

A what if they likely never would encounter, not because chit don't happen but because they would never put on such size.
 
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The swings in NQ are pretty steep. With ES setting an entry and exit on a move has a pretty manageable point spread and ATR so if the market moves against you it's just a equitable loss you've factored into your system.

NQ spreads tend to run several multiples of the ES ATR, so a loss can easily go outside risk level.

There are enough swings in ES to take positions both inside and outside of market hours that I never saw the upside of trading NQ.

Of course, this is all subjective, and NQ could easily be perfect for the next trader.
 
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