Do full-time forex traders exist or is it just make believe?

[sheda]

Quote from achilles28:

Too bad. I'd like to see you or the Expurt in action. Those are impressive figures if they're pulled off, everyday. My stops are in the same neighborhood (less than 10 pips), when I trade FX. Maybe 3/4 - 1 point on the es. We've had some okay days in the Euro, but some not okay days, too. I'm always open to other methods. Why not post some calls? They don't have to be accurate to the second? I'd be willing to make some myself

Every day used to be an ok day on the Euro for me, more or less, biggest problem was boring days, then came the euro crisis which took a bit of adjusting to, when that died down from my perspective I could not trade the way I had been anymore, entering intraday on the 15 I just got beat and beat and beat for some time, previously to this I had had the 1 minute chart down as the land of cowboys and gamblers, everything was just to short term and unpredictable there, that was until I minimized the candle sticks as much as possible on my main charts as to no longer be taken in by the noise of each bar.

Using the 1 minute for entry literally opened the market back up to me, sitting & waiting on the 15, if I had had no choice I think I would have quit around that stage. As for calls "I entered where price was 10-15 minutes ago" has little substance, unless its in your account

I have been complacent with the market just once, in terms of thinking I do not need to give it my full attention (intraday) before B/E is a done deal. If I recall it was early September 2011, a little stroll to the bathroom and chat at the front door, eh whats the issue? EUR/CHF was the issue and although I was dancing in the same direction as the fine lady my heart still stopped by the time I got back to my pc. The markets a different annimal now but its still an annimal, tuesday took me from 40 pips to 0 inless than 60 seconds..point being I do not take my eyes off or piss around when its intraday.

I am more than happy to do calls when I start trading the longer time frames again, I think for the most part thats how I got anywhere, directing the short term returns into a few pairs with the aim of 150-200 pips over the week, average trade 2-5 days some weeks with 2 trades. I found this can be done quite comfortably while still trading intraday and if the returns are directed into another account it provides quite something when it comes to peace of mind.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from cornix:

I admire people who are able to trade ES, especially with 4 tick stop. It looks like total mess to me most of the time, ha.

Recently play some DAX, that is one nice mover, I wish it was more liquid though.

NQ seems to be an optimal balance of volatility and liquidity.

Surprised to hear that. ES is super reliable and usually an easy read. I think it's the higher granularity (quarter point ticks) that gives it a more stable action, compared to fx, quoted in pipettes, which can be really noisy, especially on lower time frames (seconds).....That's why I'm really interested how xspurt and this other dude claim to trade... they'd have catch reversals on the second charts, which is pretty tough unless they're keying off higher time frame patterns, which the guy recommended to do. But essentially top and bottom calling. Xspurt says it isn't 2b, but what what else? Buckets? I don't know? Anyway, interesting to ponder. I trade ES same as fx - identify trend and enter on pullbacks. Strange, but i found CFD commodity charts much easier to read than regular futures charts. The patterns seem way more reliable, especially for CL. DAX is sick, and moves like a beast. Watched NQ for a couple days. Will take another look .

 

[sheda]

Compared to fx, quoted in pipettes, which can be really noisy, especially on lower time frames

That was until I minimized the candle sticks as much as possible on my main charts as to no longer be taken in by the noise of each bar.

But essentially top and bottom calling.

How does price behave at a top and a bottom, whats it doing in relation to your on chart indicators, what are external indicators showing..etc

 

[achilles28]

Quote from sheda:



I am more than happy to do calls when I start trading the longer time frames again, I think for the most part thats how I got anywhere, directing the short term returns into a few pairs with the aim of 150-200 pips over the week, average trade 2-5 days some weeks with 2 trades. I found this can be done quite comfortably while still trading intraday and if the returns are directed into another account it provides quite something when it comes to peace of mind.

Well, thanks for the insight. It's nice to talk shop and get the perspective of other guys that have a different look at the market. FX is definitely more temperamental, in that volatility can be really bursty and unpredictable. With the es, or other us futures, open and close are predictable jumpy periods. Mid day lag etc. With fx, it's sorta like who knows, and volatility can strike at any moment, and higher timeframes miss most of that. Or do they...? Not sure about that one. I think using traditional trendfollowing methods they do. But xpurt mentioned using a 30 mins to setup a trade, so there's definitely top and bottom picking going on at higher timeframes. s&r, 2b, dont know?

 

[achilles28]

Quote from sheda:

How does price behave at a top and a bottom, whats it doing in relation to your on chart indicators, what are external indicators showing..etc

New extremes become smaller and smaller. Until price fails to make new extremes. Chart indicators could be anything from trendline, moving average break, to oscillator extremes, to flip of s&r (resistance becoming support/support becoming resistance), to 123 in opposite direction.

Taking the candles (bars) out of it is interesting. Line price would be better, altho that can offer false signals too, cause plot is based on candle close and masks a lot of intra-bar pa... ?

 

[sheda]

Quote from achilles28:

Well, thanks for the insight. It's nice to talk shop and get the perspective of other guys that have a different look at the market. FX is definitely more temperamental, in that volatility can be really bursty and unpredictable.

Most of the action is in or around the London session, at times the Asian I find good yet its not consistently worth staying awake for ( but brilliant when you stay up all night for unrelated reasons and get the days job done by 4:am!)

With fx, it's sorta like who knows, and volatility can strike at any moment, and higher timeframes miss most of that. Or do they...? Not sure about that one. I think using traditional trendfollowing methods they do. But xpurt mentioned using a 30 mins to setup a trade, so there's definitely top and bottom picking going on at higher timeframes. s&r, 2b, dont know?

These days intraday its all about smaller time frames for me, if you have a week to mess around with you can up the volume and afford to wait a couple of days for 150 pips, I dont know Xpurts method to the exact I have never really spoken to him, I watch the 1-5-15 mainly waiting to sense a change of mood on the 5-15 then I enter on the one, yet I could base my entire intra day from the 1 minute chart:

http://www.2shared.com/photo/2hvFxhy1/Euro.html

From even this most basic chart it can be seen how tight the set ups and stop loss requirements are, with the confidence added by Thinking D) you know the mood of the market from observing time frames above it you can make those swift entrys stress free, but not every day is like that, Friday was so crap it was not worth watching never mind entering yet you can sense that by how congested the 15 was.

Taking the candles (bars) out of it is interesting. Line price would be better, altho that can offer false signals too, cause plot is based on candle close and masks a lot of intra-bar pa... ?

Line price for me has always seemed like the head of a moving snake, I really can not work with it, minimizing the candle sticks is the best thing I have ever done, that does not mean I use them every single day however, it depends on the feel I get from the market.

I have been a bit bitchy at points in the later pages of this thread, I am by no means the greatest trader in the world I just do my best which has worked in such a way that trading was a very good choice for me to make, I couldt verbaly articulate how I trade 100%, I did not learn by reading or writing extensive trading plans infact one of the only things I ever read about trading when I was out to learn were the posting on trade2win which informed me of many many years to break even and struggles I could not imagine.

I left disgusted and used that energy to learn, by watching, by doing, bullshit teachers disgust me I literaly cringe when I think of them in chat rooms "alright guys we"re in!!" when all the while they arent risking a cent...I never got that feeling from xpurt and know the numbers he spoke of are possible. I do have an appreciation for Surfs desire to turn people away from what he thinks is a dead end yet its taken to an extreme and his refusal to even look at the possibility of TA having value even when its in his face... sure he does admit his loses but in a way only a sales man could:

"had to sell for a loss but we caught the move we predicated! just in the wrong direction"

Positive spin no matter what, only natural for a sales man. At the end of it all I dont think it matters how you trade, the few people who have asked me to teach them, sat by my side, the biggest factor was their ability to self reflect and deal with emotion. A chart is just a chart and even if the method currently used works the chances are you are going to have to change it in the long run, I have looked at charts from people who are consistent and it was not in my langauge..so to speak, method is a means to an end, if you have the will you will find the correct way for you.

Good luck on your trading all.

 

[cornix]

Quote from achilles28:

Surprised to hear that. ES is super reliable and usually an easy read. I think it's the higher granularity (quarter point ticks) that gives it a more stable action, compared to fx, quoted in pipettes, which can be really noisy, especially on lower time frames (seconds).....That's why I'm really interested how xspurt and this other dude claim to trade... they'd have catch reversals on the second charts, which is pretty tough unless they're keying off higher time frame patterns, which the guy recommended to do. But essentially top and bottom calling. Xspurt says it isn't 2b, but what what else? Buckets? I don't know? Anyway, interesting to ponder. I trade ES same as fx - identify trend and enter on pullbacks. Strange, but i found CFD commodity charts much easier to read than regular futures charts. The patterns seem way more reliable, especially for CL. DAX is sick, and moves like a beast. Watched NQ for a couple days. Will take another look .

I remember your thread on trading ES using 2, 15-min charts and MACD. Was very interesting reading for me at that time as I was only finding my own way back then.

It's amazing how differently we all perceive the same things. For me if I try ES, often when I enter the pullback the move is already over.

Must be used to higher volatility instruments. That's why DAX doesn't scare me, rather loves me, ha.

Probably I watch too high TF for ES and hence enter too late (my all time favorite TF is 5-min where I spend like 90% of the screen time).

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from sheda:

...I do have an appreciation for Surfs desire to turn people away from what he thinks is a dead end yet its taken to an extreme and his refusal to even look at the possibility of TA having value even when its in his face... sure he does admit his loses but in a way only a sales man could:

"had to sell for a loss but we caught the move we predicated! just in the wrong direction"

Positive spin no matter what, only natural for a sales man. At the end of it all I dont think it matters how you trade, the few people who have asked me to teach them, sat by my side, the biggest factor was their ability to self reflect and deal with emotion. A chart is just a chart and even if the method currently used works the chances are you are going to have to change it in the long run, I have looked at charts from people who are consistent and it was not in my langauge..so to speak, method is a means to an end, if you have the will you will find the correct way for you.

Good luck on your trading all.

Hey Sheda,

You need to be careful about the TA debate here with some ET members because most of them actually do use TA but just don't consider their use of charts (analysis) as a form of TA similar to the other type of TA involving technical indicators.

Thus, as soon as you discover they are chart users or occasionally look at a chart to form a technical opinion...the debates or arguments with them no longer has merits. Guys like Xspurt couldn't understand that and continue debating with the same anti-TA folks even though he knew they used chart analysis to help with their primary none TA methods.

Many years ago I saw commentary from those (including surf) about their own chart analysis...they would say something like "I use chart analysis only for visualization purposes only but I don't use technical indicators".

That's when I realize there really isn't a debate. It's like arguing that "Badminton" isn't an Olympic Sport when in fact it is. Similar to the debate that folks using price moving averages aren't using technical indicators (e.g. Al Brooks).

The TA debate is really about technical indicators and not about other forms of TA. In addition, you have some pro TA users running around saying they are profitable and that TA is the only thing they're using when in fact they also relied heavily on discipline, money management, trading experience and many other tools of the trade.

Profitable traders do not "only" use one tool.

My point, some folks just like debating and arguing here at ET, its venting and/or entertainment for them. Therefore, just focus on your own trading especially if you're the "emotional type" that tends to let negativity impact your own trading...reason why some folks just stay away from ET.

 

[cornix]

Quote from achilles28:

Well, thanks for the insight. It's nice to talk shop and get the perspective of other guys that have a different look at the market. FX is definitely more temperamental, in that volatility can be really bursty and unpredictable. With the es, or other us futures, open and close are predictable jumpy periods. Mid day lag etc. With fx, it's sorta like who knows, and volatility can strike at any moment, and higher timeframes miss most of that. Or do they...? Not sure about that one. I think using traditional trendfollowing methods they do. But xpurt mentioned using a 30 mins to setup a trade, so there's definitely top and bottom picking going on at higher timeframes. s&r, 2b, dont know?

AFAIK Xspurt trades within daily "gameplan" most of the time, which is higher TF context. When small TF's reach some point, which is likely to trigger that "gameplan" move, he flips on the dime catching small TF reversal with that bigger picture.

At least that's my brief conclusion of his trading style after real-time interaction with him since 2008 almost every trading day.

Must warn, that this style requires really good ability to read the "gameplan" and those smaller TF's to effectively spot the likely reversal into a big swing, otherwise newbie may easily get trapped into taking every counter-trend reversal and lose consistently instead of winning. I witnessed destructive effect of this style applied without all details of context reading being studied to the stage of clear understanding.

 

[sheda]

Quote from wrbtrader:

Hey Sheda,

You need to be careful about the TA debate

If Surf had said a system of lagging indicators with blunt rules despite any current market behaviour or turning your chart into what appears to be a replication of an LSD trip is a waste of time, I would have agreed with him, money management and disipline are just presumed, "you TA guys" is fairly broad..cheers for the heads up.

As for an emotional type, I rejected trading forums when I was learning on the same basis I would reject a hopistal stay if the prognosis was "you have 1 month to live"