Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?

[Xela]

Alot of day traders, or traders in general, are nothing more but degenerate gamblers.
Looking for that next high, or win.

I think Lawrence is right about this.

The reason loads of people lose their money with daytrading is substantially the same as the reason that loads of people lose their money by trading forex with high leverage: it isn't the daytrading itself where the problem lies, but many of the people attracted to it.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Being in trading maybe too long, lol

it is Starbucks time, you bet I own SBUX. old man got to get some go juice

You go to Starbucks alot (or end every post saying so) -- why don't you just buy a high-end coffee or espresso machine,
https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_nkw=espresso+machine&_sop=16

,

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

I think Lawrence is right about this.

The reason loads of people lose their money with daytrading is substantially the same as the reason that loads of people lose their money by trading forex with high leverage: it isn't the daytrading itself where the problem lies, but many of the people attracted to it.

Maybe. I go to Las Vegas a lot and never gamble. I actually hate the games. I think its boring. But I will trade hours each day and think nothing of it.

 

[speedo]

Maybe. I go to Las Vegas a lot and never gamble. I actually hate the games. I think its boring. But I will trade hours each day and think nothing of it.

I think the point LL and Zela were making is day trading tends to attract people lacking in discipline, work ethic and realistic expectations (as might gambling forays)which would doom any attempting to day trade for a living. As far as the "95% Fail", no one knows what the number is. Extrapolations are make from this and that...suffice it to say that the odds are against anyone entering the arena.

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

I think the point LL and Zela were making is day trading tends to attract people lacking in discipline, work ethic and realistic expectations (as might gambling forays)which would doom any attempting to day trade for a living. As far as the "95%Fail" number, no one knows what the number is. Extrapolations are make from this and that...enough said that the odds are against anyone entering the arena.

Not sure I buy that idea. My background is from extremely demanding professions that require a lot of discipline and I am now a trader. I realize that a sample of one is too small to base any stats on. Or perhaps I am just an outlier.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

My personal experience: Start date 1993. Lost $142k my first two years of day trading, but continued to trade because of past success from investments. Took another two or three years to make modest profits. Here I am in 2018 still grinding it out with plenty to live off of. I would say I learned how to trade...definitely. The key for me was being well capitalized and a never ending obsession with the markets.

 

[speedo]

Not sure I buy that idea. My background is from extremely demanding professions that require a lot of discipline and I am now a trader. I realize that a sample of one is too small to base any stats on. Or perhaps I am just an outlier.

It was not a unilateral statement, anyone who succeeds as a day trader is an outlier.

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

It was not a unilateral statement, anyone who succeeds as a day trader is an outlier.

Probably true.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Not sure I buy that idea. My background is from extremely demanding professions that require a lot of discipline and I am now a trader. I realize that a sample of one is too small to base any stats on. Or perhaps I am just an outlier.

It seems to be an unusual event for someone in their relative prime to switch careers. I also came from a job where errors were not an option. Before trading I had over 20 years of knowing how tired was too tired, what to do to prevent error creeping in, having multiple redundant computer systems and always having a reversal plan should one need to get out.

I got all that from fairly high end IT contracting. Only by pure fluke, getting an bad injury and while recuperating running into a couple of traders who said I had the right personality did I get into it.

The skills needed to succeed are not very rare however switching tracks as a mature adult is an outlier occurrence I'm sure.

Pro finance from early days traders, certainly these guys and girls get rich but many seem to over complicate the task. Understanding of course there are regs to follow if trading OPM.

 

[Traderjohnsblog]

It seems to be an unusual event for someone in their relative prime to switch careers. I also came from a job where errors were not an option. Before trading I had over 20 years of knowing how tired was too tired, what to do to prevent error creeping in, having multiple redundant computer systems and always having a reversal plan should one need to get out.

I got all that from fairly high end IT contracting. Only by pure fluke, getting an bad injury and while recuperating running into a couple of traders who said I had the right personality did I get into it.

The skills needed to succeed are not rare however switching tracks as a mature adult is an outlier occurrence I'm sure.

Pro finance from early days, certainly these guys and girls get rich but many seem to over complicate the task. Understanding of course there are regs to follow if trading OPM.

Realtive prime. LOL. Thanks for the compliment. I am actually 55 years old. I am came to daytrading from being an airline pilot. Our schedules made making the switch easier than most professions I would think.