Do arbitrage opportunities exist for retail investors?
- Thread starter Victory5
- Start date
In theory, it may seem so -- but in reality...the short, basic answer is basically no. 
ops:
ops:In theory, it may seem so -- but in reality...the short, basic answer is basically no.
Right thats what I thought.
Between commission, and a lack of speed (ability to scan the entire option market) I dont see how some guy sitting at home on his computer can stumble across an ostensibly risk free trade....
There are no real arbitrage opportunities anywhere these days (perhaps fleeting ones in niche markets for small size, but that's about it). When people refer to arbitrage they mean things like spread trades, basis trades, etc. Retail guys can do spread trades to their hearts' content, but those ain't no risk-free trades. Basis trades are done by institutional players that have access to flow and/or a funding advantage.
Novogratz at Fortress made a few hundred million off JPM when he caught them incorrectly quoting vols on swaptions around NFP announcements. That only happens (VERY rarely) because you have Fortress and JPM in the room together.
Novogratz at Fortress made a few hundred million off JPM when he caught them incorrectly quoting vols on swaptions around NFP announcements. That only happens (VERY rarely) because you have Fortress and JPM in the room together.
Define arb... Static.. Statistical.... This is an abstract notion... Strictly no one makes a risk free profit... A market maker has different cost structures but still is not making a risk free return... If your selling stock against a synthetic long position you exposure to raates and pin risk are real.... There is always some form and degree of arb available to everyone ....
cdc...I agree with the spirit of your reply but not with the specifics. Arbitrage is defined as buying a selling the same thing to earn a risk-free return. Anything else is not arbitrage, but people keep calling it as such. Spread trades are spread trades. Basis trades are basis trades. I realize I'm fighting a losing battle with my war on words but the use of the term is a pet peeve of mine.
No. Arbitrage means riskless profit. It doesn't mean buying and selling the same thing. If you could buy a call option for zero, that would be considered arbitrage because you cannot lose money.
From Wikipedia:
In economics and finance, arbitrage (US /ˈɑrbɨtrɑːʒ/, UK /ˈɑrbɨtrɪdʒ/, UK /ˌɑrbɨtrˈɑːʒ/) is the practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For instance, an arbitrage is present when there is the opportunity to instantaneously buy low and sell high.
Even if someone gives you a 0 priced call there is no guarantee of a positive payoff. I concede someone might be given free options that are in-the-money and immediately exercise-able for a riskless profit, but that falls in the category of a niche market (CEOs or company directors, for example).
In economics and finance, arbitrage (US /ˈɑrbɨtrɑːʒ/, UK /ˈɑrbɨtrɪdʒ/, UK /ˌɑrbɨtrˈɑːʒ/) is the practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For instance, an arbitrage is present when there is the opportunity to instantaneously buy low and sell high.
Even if someone gives you a 0 priced call there is no guarantee of a positive payoff. I concede someone might be given free options that are in-the-money and immediately exercise-able for a riskless profit, but that falls in the category of a niche market (CEOs or company directors, for example).
Statistical arbitrage expands on the concept. Although, I agree it is a bit of a misnomer. However, I sort of agree that the expanded version of arbitrage into statistical arbitrage is a good extension of the idea in this case and the pluses of the extension outweighs the minuses.
Some stat arb looks an awful lot like riskless arb, until you look closely. There is almost always some risk, but usually it is not thought of as such because it is a remote possibility. Counterparty risk, or exchange risk are two such risks that people rarely mention.
The reason Goldman Sachs is able to make money is because it is doing stat arb. And when the probabilities do play out and that the black swan shows up, the government bails them out. That is why people that do this for a long time tell you, play and play for a long time. But then get the hell out and retire because all trading is a time-bomb waiting to happen.
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Just as a note of clarfication for noobs--- statistical arb = pair trading