Again, as outlined in original post for the base case question:
no trader status election (no 475)
no other income besides 1256 gains
no other tax considerations from prior years, owed taxes, rental/real estate, etc -- nothing
gains resulting in over 1K tax liability in Q1, 2, or 3 -- must make estimated tax payments?
How certain are you about "paid evenly." If you have no gains in Q1, you pay no quarterly, if by end of Q2, you have enough 1256 gains to push you over the $1k tax due threshold, you pay enough to get back under the $1k threshold. If you then have no gains/losses Q3, no payment, no gains/losses Q4, no payment. Doesn't seem like that is "evenly."
I'm thinking pay the quarterly payments, so we're on the same page on that one, although I don't feel like I have a certain answer about it since all 1256 trades are mtm at year end and no dates of trades are reported to the IRS. But I do suspect they want their quarterly payments. I'll post here once I get a CPA's input, ideally one that works with futures traders specifically.
And that's the bugger about it...If your only income is from 1256, then how can you be expected to pay an estimated tax quarterly when you MTM at EOY? I'm in the same boat. My income is strictly from the 1256 (aside from some dividend income which is reported elsewhere), and I don't even have "trader status". I don't trade anything under the security umbrella, only 1256.
Let me ask you this, what percentage of your 1256 annual traded volume do you MTM on Dec 31st? If you're an active trader with, say a $1M account, chances are you will have traded hundreds of millions by Dec 31 but will only have a few million notional that you MTM at the end of the year. So this whole idea that you don't know if you were profitable or by how much until Dec 31 because MTM is a complete red herring.And that's the bugger about it...If your only income is from 1256, then how can you be expected to pay an estimated tax quarterly when you MTM at EOY? I'm in the same boat. My income is strictly from the 1256 (aside from some dividend income which is reported elsewhere), and I don't even have "trader status". I don't trade anything under the security umbrella, only 1256.
Let me ask you this, what percentage of your 1256 annual traded volume do you MTM on Dec 31st? If you're an active trader with, say a $1M account, chances are you will have traded hundreds of millions by Dec 31 but will only have a few million notional that you MTM at the end of the year. So this whole idea that you don't know if you were profitable or by how much until Dec 31 because MTM is a complete red herring...[
All I can do is hee-haw as one of the ten jackasses.Whatever the notional, my point is that your profit or loss on Dec 31st that you MTM is generally a tiny portion of your annual P&L if you're an active trader. And if you're exclusively trading 1256 contracts for a living you're almost certainly a very active trader.Well, let me TELL you this. I wish I had that conundrum. I really do.All I can do is hee-haw as one of the ten jackasses.
It sounds like we're in the same boat. I had ample tax liability in 2019, so the safeharbor options don't work for me. 2020 was the start of a long-planned haiatus from a day job, so I have no other income, which means 60% of the first $40k of this year's 1256 gains are taxed at 0%, and the remaining 40% is taxed at 0% rate up to 12,400 (standard deduction), then on up into the usual brackets. I keep a googlesheet that calculates my tax liability in real-time, so I always know what's coming at year-end. I guess I'll just change the way I think about that field in my spreadsheet to quarter-end instead of year-end, and make payments accordingly.