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DNDN after FDA decision on May 15
- Thread starter codedeep007
- Start date
It will be interesting.
Doubt FDA will deny Provenge drug cause it is showing a little bit of proof of survival of cancer longevity. I would lean more to approval letter cause Denderon clinical study is tenous since two studies failed. Therefore I see an approval letter coming which means Denderon has to come up with more proof to satisfy FDA which means I say about $5 drop in stock price from $15 to around $9. So I would go all in with the puts.
I saw this on a DNDN message board.......let me know what you think about this posters logic:
I have been considering this question all weekend. Here's the question that arises for me.
If the Short interest wanted to make the most $$ possible on an approvable letter, if that is indeed what they expect to be the result of the fda's decision, why wouldn't they be driving the price up right now. If they have so much power over the pps then why not get approvable at $25 instead of $10. There is only so much downside in this stock. What keeps tickling my neck everytime I start to buy into this MASSIVE sales job that there is NO HOPE for outright approval based on all the efforts of the media, big money and anyone with a PHD who voted no for efficacy, the contrarian in me steps up.
IF the MMs really felt that Provenge would NOT get approval then right now I would expect them to be making $$ on the way up taking out retail short's stops and giving "sucker" longs false hope that somebody knows something and approval is emminent. Then, max pain/profit for them would have almost $22 within minutes of fda approvable letter on the downside. Instead, I have the gnawing feeling that while everyone is going insane beating DNDN down and selling left right and center because the risk SEEMS to get greater every day (in reality nothing has changed except the number of short shares) previously stalwart Longs are now coming up with new strategies to hedge their bets and lock in what is now looking like a decent profit sonce approval is getting to be a dimmer and dimmer light at the end of the tunnel.
I would argue that the reason there is no light left in the tunnel is because the big money is trying to cover every possible window so it APPEARS pitch black, we drop our shares, they go long and the sky is literally the limit. We all knew this would be the plan the day approval came from the panel. We all talked about how the next 6 weeks would be a vendetta to separate longs from their shares but we all felt secure that "THERE'S NO WAY THEIR GETTING MINE, APPROVAL IS IN THE BAG!" Look how effective they have been. I am still sitting still because the oldest tenent of successful trading keeps ringing in my ears, buy when everyone in the world is selling and sell when everyone is buying. Call me crazy.
This is the same thing that kept me in my seat through Panel decision without sweating as much as you might think. I just felt in the pit of my stomach that something was rotten in Denmark. Why SO much pressure down when the down side is where the money is made with a short position.
I have been considering this question all weekend. Here's the question that arises for me.
If the Short interest wanted to make the most $$ possible on an approvable letter, if that is indeed what they expect to be the result of the fda's decision, why wouldn't they be driving the price up right now. If they have so much power over the pps then why not get approvable at $25 instead of $10. There is only so much downside in this stock. What keeps tickling my neck everytime I start to buy into this MASSIVE sales job that there is NO HOPE for outright approval based on all the efforts of the media, big money and anyone with a PHD who voted no for efficacy, the contrarian in me steps up.
IF the MMs really felt that Provenge would NOT get approval then right now I would expect them to be making $$ on the way up taking out retail short's stops and giving "sucker" longs false hope that somebody knows something and approval is emminent. Then, max pain/profit for them would have almost $22 within minutes of fda approvable letter on the downside. Instead, I have the gnawing feeling that while everyone is going insane beating DNDN down and selling left right and center because the risk SEEMS to get greater every day (in reality nothing has changed except the number of short shares) previously stalwart Longs are now coming up with new strategies to hedge their bets and lock in what is now looking like a decent profit sonce approval is getting to be a dimmer and dimmer light at the end of the tunnel.
I would argue that the reason there is no light left in the tunnel is because the big money is trying to cover every possible window so it APPEARS pitch black, we drop our shares, they go long and the sky is literally the limit. We all knew this would be the plan the day approval came from the panel. We all talked about how the next 6 weeks would be a vendetta to separate longs from their shares but we all felt secure that "THERE'S NO WAY THEIR GETTING MINE, APPROVAL IS IN THE BAG!" Look how effective they have been. I am still sitting still because the oldest tenent of successful trading keeps ringing in my ears, buy when everyone in the world is selling and sell when everyone is buying. Call me crazy.
This is the same thing that kept me in my seat through Panel decision without sweating as much as you might think. I just felt in the pit of my stomach that something was rotten in Denmark. Why SO much pressure down when the down side is where the money is made with a short position.
Interesting. Time will tell, but I tend to agree. Why the battering if the stock won't be approved? Why the long arguments against approval after the fact, when the recommendation was FOR approval?
No one knows for sure of course, but it does seem very odd that so many people are shorting... they aren't all hedging. It is a scary ride, but it is very strange behavior and an awful lot of down talking for a 'worthless' stock, judging by price action, we all know how the market does in fact do the opposite of the trend most of the time. I guess it boils down to which side lobbies the FDA the hardest.
No one knows for sure of course, but it does seem very odd that so many people are shorting... they aren't all hedging. It is a scary ride, but it is very strange behavior and an awful lot of down talking for a 'worthless' stock, judging by price action, we all know how the market does in fact do the opposite of the trend most of the time. I guess it boils down to which side lobbies the FDA the hardest.
well i bought a handful of June $5 & $7.50 Puts on the open today (5/07)....i'm pretty much just rolling the dice on this one - looking to take some profits with a break below the $15 support and/or non-approval.....anyone taking the other side of my trade or buying some out of the money calls? It should be an interesting week.