DJIA

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18506 on 7/14/16, as the stock market continued to rally. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2160 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2031 and rising.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18514 on 7/15/16, as the stock market continues to look strong. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2160 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2032 and rising.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18533 on 7/18/16, as the stock market continues to look strong. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2170 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2033 and rising.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18560 on 7/19/16, as the stock market trades sideways. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2170 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2034 and rising.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18595 on 7/20/16, as the stock market ended higher today. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2170 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2036 and rising.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18520 on 7/21/16, as the stock market dropped today. With the S&P 500 rallying from 1990-2170 in a few weeks, I've turned extremely cautious as we head into the fall. At some point, the S&P 500 will see a correction back to its 200 day moving average now located at 2036 and rising.
 
25 of 30 DJI listed stocks are moving above their 200-day SMA. Such strong sentiment among DOW stocks could be seen on the most time-frames all the way down from 200-MA to 20-day MA where 29 of 30 DJI stocks are above their 20-fay SMA:
http://www.marketvolume.com/stocks/filter.asp?s=ma&t0=1&t1=10000&v=10000&optCriteria=12&t=DJI&p1=20
Disney (DIS) is the weakest stock from this prospective

However, when we go to lover timeframes we may see beginning of a weakness, such as, 14 of 30 DOW stocks are already moving below their 5-day SMA:
http://www.marketvolume.com/stocks/filter.asp?s=ma&t0=1&t1=10000&v=10000&optCriteria=11&t=DJI&p1=5

It could be nothing or it could be a sign of coming down-turn next week and we may see DJI dropping below it's 5-day , 10-day and maybe even below 15-day MA.

Yet, it is a long way to go down to 200-day MA. At current low volatility it is difficult expect strong downturn. In addition, after such strong up-move there are Bulls who missed this rally and who will try to jump in on a correction down and this will prevent the DJI from a strong decline. I would more expect a small correction and then reversal up to the recent highs. Maybe another stronger correction and increase in volatility and only then strong down-turn toward 200-day MA.
 
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