DJIA 9300ish coming next month

T

Topper

Needs to hold there or it could get ugly. I'm still bullish but think we're going to trend sideways and volatile for maybe a couple months with the trading range between 9300(ish) and 10,000ish.

S&P bottoms to 1000 down to 950ish

A sustained break below these bottoms and I'm going ultra short etfs

Am I crazy?:confused:

Does anyone else see what I'm looking at?
 
Since the ultra short ETFs are options/derivatives based, anyone have an idea how likely default, counterparty failure, is to affect their existence if there is a quick trip W or L to SPX 400 or 600 or imbalance like everyone goes short?
 
I think I see what you are looking at. Do you feel that maybe those numbers will inch higher though as it takes the few weeks time to get to the end of Nov. - early Dec., or, did you already take that into consideration? thx
 
Quote from ba1:

Since the ultra short ETFs are options/derivatives based, anyone have an idea how likely default, counterparty failure, is to affect their existence if there is a quick trip W or L to SPX 400 or 600 or imbalance like everyone goes short?
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imho, spx isn't going to 400-600 but myself personally I take it one day at a time, and today, I don't see that. I see weak sectors, but the numbers in Q3 are mostly coming in on the high end of estimates (I believe it was on over 80% of those who reported already). I think it would take an extraordinary amount of doom and gloom to push us down to those levels.

thanks for the heads up though. Interesting variable.
 
Quote from Mvic:

Looking for 8800-9000 by end of Nov early Dec.
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Yup,

The next 2-3 months are going to be a real wake-up. November is looking to be a bloodbath based on how we closed out here.

No way we break the lows IMO, but 9k is about right if we're lucky.
 
no you are not crazy

it's impossible to know if 9300 Dow will be new support or anywhere else right now but I agree the top is definitely in already with the Russell 2000 breaking down already and this nasty action in emerging markets plus a bull-trap in XLF.

The easy thing should be to go short biased if the major indices can get close to resistance. BEST case scenario is we trade sideways until end of year.
 
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