Quote from total_keops:
IMO, options is a very efficient market. When there are arbitrage opportunities (with dividend capture or whatever) it usually means that there is uncertainty about future dividend payments. I've know guys that hedged everything else but the dividend risk and where therefore betting on the future dividend yield.
Thanks. I can certainly see the uncertainty around dividends on individual dividend-paying stocks. There would be more speculation there. Less so on an index like SPY.

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