Divergences

Hi !

I haven't yet looked thru much of your journal, but I found it interesting that you were negative on IPG yet made $$ on rise in its price. If your short was for an equal size as your hedge call buy there's no way that could be, so what's up?
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Quote from romik:

SHORT - IPG (NYSE) Interpublic Grp of Cos

Hedge: Buy 75 Oct $10.00 Calls @ 0.25

Current: $9.83
Average down: ~$10.17
PT1: $9.10
PT2: $8.00
PT3: N/A
Stop: ~$10.30
BRD in HIST on a daily chart attached, but daily chart is in an uptrend with a possible double bottom in the mid $7 range. Possible reward outweighs risk here. I would say that this could be a risky trade when looking on the daily chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IPG
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Position covered $10.32

-3.2% adjusted after averaging @ $10.17

Oct 10 calls remain open.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

75 Oct 2006 10 calls sold @ $0.50 for 100% profit. Due to this outcome the overall position's PnL has been adjusted to:

+0.53%
 
Hi !

I haven't yet looked thru much of your journal, but I found it interesting that you were negative on IPG yet made $$ on rise in its price. If your short was for an equal size as your hedge call buy there's no way that could be, so what's up?
=================================
Quote from romik:

SHORT - IPG (NYSE) Interpublic Grp of Cos

Hedge: Buy 75 Oct $10.00 Calls @ 0.25

Current: $9.83
Average down: ~$10.17
PT1: $9.10
PT2: $8.00
PT3: N/A
Stop: ~$10.30
BRD in HIST on a daily chart attached, but daily chart is in an uptrend with a possible double bottom in the mid $7 range. Possible reward outweighs risk here. I would say that this could be a risky trade when looking on the daily chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IPG
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Position covered $10.32

-3.2% adjusted after averaging @ $10.17

Oct 10 calls remain open.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

75 Oct 2006 10 calls sold @ $0.50 for 100% profit. Due to this outcome the overall position's PnL has been adjusted to:

+0.53%
 
50k allocation per position, -3.2% on 50k and +100% on 75 calls. What I can say here is that my decision to allocate so many or so few options as hedge vs a 50k position is a mystery to me as to others. If anybody has any advice on ratios I am all ears.

Quote from blue2and2:

Hi !

I haven't yet looked thru much of your journal, but I found it interesting that you were negative on IPG yet made $$ on rise in its price. If your short was for an equal size as your hedge call buy there's no way that could be, so what's up?
=================================
Quote from romik:

SHORT - IPG (NYSE) Interpublic Grp of Cos

Hedge: Buy 75 Oct $10.00 Calls @ 0.25

Current: $9.83
Average down: ~$10.17
PT1: $9.10
PT2: $8.00
PT3: N/A
Stop: ~$10.30
BRD in HIST on a daily chart attached, but daily chart is in an uptrend with a possible double bottom in the mid $7 range. Possible reward outweighs risk here. I would say that this could be a risky trade when looking on the daily chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IPG
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Position covered $10.32

-3.2% adjusted after averaging @ $10.17

Oct 10 calls remain open.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

75 Oct 2006 10 calls sold @ $0.50 for 100% profit. Due to this outcome the overall position's PnL has been adjusted to:

+0.53%
More...
 
Some charts I'm watching

<img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CHTR&p=60&b=3&g=0&i=p58772468903&a=88014002&r=8535">


<img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RHAT&p=60&b=3&g=1&i=p68494546253&a=88013741&r=4819">


<img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NT&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p93072392021&a=87285472&r=4149">
 
Quote from romik:

I think the fate of this trade is going to be decided very shortly. At the moment the price approaches 52 week high of $33.59, but there is a cute BRD on the weekly chart, which is still valid. So the plan would be to close the trade @ initial stop level and re-enter the short when shorter TFs start showing signs of weakening upside. Hopefully it's not going to gap down or up for that matter.
More...

Motherf.....! That's just one big problem with stocks - gaps on earnings and since that position was not covered by a call hedge it is pretty screwed at the moment. Obviously, all future positions are protected, this one wasn't. Good job these are paper trades. Up 14% on open.
 
Quote from romik:

Motherf.....! That's just one big problem with stocks - gaps on earnings and since that position was not covered by a call hedge it is pretty screwed at the moment. Obviously, all future positions are protected, this one wasn't. Good job these are paper trades. Up 14% on open.
More...

OUCH!!! That hurts.
 
Romik,
Today I closed my position on the Q's. I am now neutral. I closed at 42.25 giving me a realized profit of about 130% or 13K.

Gary
 
Quote from 4re:

Romik,
Today I closed my position on the Q's. I am now neutral. I closed at 42.25 giving me a realized profit of about 130% or 13K.

Gary
More...

That's pretty awesome, you still holding puts?
 
Quote from romik:

That's pretty awesome, you still holding puts?
More...

Nope, they expired worthless last month. That is part of the reason I sold my calls today. I think today could have been a turning point and if that is the case I'll be going short.
 
Quote from romik:

I am revising this due to wrong chart used initially, that mistake in charts has worsen the odds.

Current at the time of call: $61.95 100% position
PT1: $63.80
PT2: depends
Average down: N/A
Stop: $58.00

BLDs on a daily chart in MACD/HIST/RSI/CCI. Hard stop will be used below recent reaction low of $58.50, stop $58.00. Weekly and monthly charts are bearish though.
More...

-6.37%
 
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