I think there's been a handful of traders here on ET who have claimed to be able to do this everyday, but we need to remember that these traders are the exceptions and the best of the best. Probably best not to let their reults interfere with ones own trading.
Distribution of wins/losses
- Thread starter k p
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I think there's been a handful of traders here on ET who have claimed to be able to do this everyday, but we need to remember that these traders are the exceptions and the best of the best. Probably best not to let their reults interfere with ones own trading.
Just out of interest, have you been able to form an impression of roughly how many ticks, during RTH and excluding lunchtime, on NQ, equate to a 5-second period (on average) - or even how many ticks-per-minute there are?
(I like to look at volume charts, myself, for NQ, and my impression is that 1,000V equates to 4 minutes, give or take, during Nasdaq RTH.)
I'm not sure I fully understand the question, but if I do, when you're down at the 5 sec interval, there is a huge range for how wide 5 sec bars can be. Some bars are only 1-2 ticks wide, others can be easily 3 points when price drops all of a sudden. But here is the thing... this is always a clue.
Take today as an example. At the blue arrow, you see price really start to drop. We even have that little one tick gap and I remember the movement well in real time. It was a bit of an exhaustion I would say and the buying that followed in the seconds after sure felt like the reversal was starting (but I hate to use the word "felt" cause I know this will bring about lots of criticism). Now these bars here aren't really all that much bigger than the previous ones, but a little bit, so my points isn't really made well here.
At the red arrow, we have a much bigger bar and a buying flurry. It moved too fast past this level, and although I figured the selling was over, buying above this bar is very risky since the bar is too wide, price moved too fast, and it will have to retrace/fill in. Price didn't exactly get to the low point, the blue level at 59.50 I would have liked to see, but the behavior of the little drop down, complete with the flurry of buying was plenty to suggest a major change in direction now.
Now if you mean in terms of volume, it can be all over the place. As you see here, some spike up to 200 contracts for each 5 sec bar, and some could be in the low dozens. The minute bars are a bit more uniform with about 2000 in the opening minutes, but anything around 1000 is good volume. But honestly, even if the volume is 300 each minute, price can still move nicely, so I don't really consider volume all too much. What I love is seeing volume spikes at key levels, but I'm not exactly sure I use it. I just conclude easily that the level was in fact key because when price spikes through, its lots of stops getting run.
Anyway.. I'm not sure if even that answers your questions though.
Yup - as always - what he said
"Take the SL"
Sorry RN, my Aussie<-->Redneck translator is acting up....
Messes me up too
Don't mind a bit Sir
First..., let's agree what our goal is = consistency..., and being/ thinking / acting as a professional
Consistency regarding our results
Consistency regarding a rising equity curve - with the draw downs being only what our approach / methodology normally experiences - iow..., no outlier losses...., no significant draw down losses
Thinking / acting as a professional trader = define the risk of each..., accept the risk of each..., methodically take profit from each
Assuming we agree
The only way to achieve above is knowing the risk..., accepting the risk (via setting our stop.., for each trade..., then honoring it)..., and taking profit consistently via a systematic method - period
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Facts
We are engulfed in uncertainty..., we are surrounded by risk..., we never know
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One can find infinite reasons to move a stop..., once set
A professional trader will take the loss - every time - then move on - fully knowing what can..., and will..., happen - at some point (it never a matter of "if")
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Boom / bust traders are prime example of the results created by moving stops - many winning trades - only to then be wiped out by one (entire day / week / month's results down the toilet (loo) - in one trade)
Once one accepts the facts of our craft..., and has the goals clearly in mind = there never any reason to ever question moving a stop
Take the loss - on to the next one (and never allow the mkt into your head to convince you otherwise)
RN
Messes me up too
After bashing my head against a brick wall for years, I'm finally making progress on this!
+1
This has been a massive shift for me recently.
No more tinkering around with stops just because I get a "bad feeling". Anything can happen right?!
+1
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Thanks for that response RN. It's very much appreciated!
This is so true! Some of my best days happen with 2 full stops of 2.5-3 pts on the TF. The key is believing your system and executing without a thought (as much as this is possible) of the previous stops.
The first stop could happen for any reason. The second one may wake you up to any bias you brought into the day. That should be enough to clear your head and get you back on track.
When you are on your game...they should be one and the sameAnd your (our) self
RN
When you are on your game...they should be one and the same
Something to ponder then
And for the record.., superficially I agree with you..., but believing in one's self goes much deeper than believing in a "system" - imo
And here's why
No system..., no indicator / series of indicators..., no approach.., no PA..., no chart setting..., absolutely nothing in existence - can foretell human behavior
Nothing can foretell when a BSD with the money and psychology will cone in and move price
Nothing can foretell when current participants will enter / exit / stand aside / leave - or to what extent they will do these things..., nor when new participants will arrive
Nothing can foretell when a MM / or other with the ability - will run stops / make PA to look weak..., or strong = for the purposes of lulling in the less astute before slamming the trap shut
Nothing can foretell when the next shock will occur - nor the mkt's actual reaction to said shock
So even though one's chosen system may appear superficially to be "stellar" - it will fall short..., at times repeatedly
One's internal fortitude..., resolve..., belief in their self..., in their unwavering ability to always act in their own best interest - must be absolute..., must be steadfast
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I would submit..., being on one's game has nothing to do with the system one employs
All systems are stymied when pitted against uncertainty..., we however..., are freed by it
Just a little sumthin..., sumthin to gnaw on Sir
RN
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Agree. My reply was a really a brief "sound bite" because I was tired.
A very good example of your point is my brother, who introduced me to futures trading. He has developed several very good systems and his grasp of market structure is scary good. But, he has lost his belief in the systems and himself. And it shows in his ability to trade.
Agree. It takes time to learn this lesson. Taking a loss or a taking a bad trade is a learning experience and more data, not necessarily a failure. How you process the data and internalize it either makes you stronger or crushes your spirit. It's completely up to you to decide which one it will be.
Excellent point and advice.
I think that in the beginning, you need to have the "faith" in the system to build this resolve as a trader. What is a system other than a collection of rules that you have decided to internalize, follow and be held accountable for? You may have all the qualities you describe in your daily life, but it takes time to develop them as a trader.
JMHO
Enjoy your Turkey Day!
WB