Quote from BertH:
I PM'd someone I respect on this, but decided to convey it to the board. Why? Not so that I could personally discourage anyone else from trying it--after all, I admit to being confused as hell right now. That's hardly a position to tell others what to do or not to do.
First of all, the title of my PM says it all--I've reached a point of deep disillusionment regarding my trading. While I've not actually lost from what I started in my account (gained small amount), it's been too erratic to have any real confidence in.
When I started this journey a couple of years ago, I could damn sure swear I saw significant patterns--repeated enough in a manner that--with discipline--would render strong profits over time.
Alas, the more and longer I dig in, the worse it gets (through more closely analyzing past data, seeing it more thoroughly, perhaps). I find that "setups" I thought put the odds strongly in my favor were a form of mirage--something that pulled me in, only to let me down in the end. It's not the market's job to make me happy; it's just that all the mega-hours and, especially, hopes I had seem dashed at this juncture. I'm an analytical sort with something of a mathematical mind. I believed I could beat this game, because I have pretty good discipline, and figured the analytical side would create some trading strategies that worked a heckuva lot more than they didn't. Instead, it just seems like a useless pull and tug, going in a circle and ending in the same spot.
I still believe--in the end--there's got to be some kind of system(s) that utilize and take advantage of the predictable patterns of human psychology. I thought I had some that could figure these patterns on the charts, but it's quite possibly all BS.
I'm just highly frustrated, disappointed, and disillusioned. I'm not sure if I'll resume this game at some point or not. Maybe it is largely a "random walk," and even when it's not "random," do we know when that time is coming or happening? Is it a tradable edge, enough to warrant making significant bucks from?
For those of you who have figured it out enough to be consistently profitable, definitely more power to ya. Maybe I'll get there someday, maybe I won't. Not sure what to do right now. I thought I loved this deeply at one point--now, I'm honestly not sure I have the stomach or patience.
Thanks for the ear regarding the ramble.
Bert
Frank Sinatra Song - That's Life!
That's life (that's life), that's what all the people say
You're ridin' high in April, shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change that tune
When I'm back on top, back on top in June
I said that's life (that's life), and as funny as it may seem
Some people get their kicks stompin' on a dream
But I don't let it, let it get me down
'cause this fine old world, it keeps spinnin' around
I've been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate, a poet, a pawn and a king
I've been up and down and over and out and I know one thing
Each time I find myself flat on my face
I pick myself up and get back in the race
That's life (that's life), I tell you I can't deny it
I thought of quitting, baby, but my heart just ain't gonna buy it
And if I didn't think it was worth one single try
I'd jump right on a big bird and then I'd fly
I've been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate, a poet, a pawn and a king
I've been up and down and over and out and I know one thing
Each time I find myself layin' flat on my face
I just pick myself up and get back in the race
That's life (that's life), that's life and I can't deny it
Many times I thought of cuttin' out but my heart won't buy it
But if there's nothin' shakin' come this here July
I'm gonna roll myself up in a big ball a-and die
My, my!
http://www.extractando.com/entretenimiento/musica/Sinatra_ThatsLife_I.htm
