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Disillusioned
- Thread starter BertH
- Start date
Quote from duard:
The breakthrough came after many years spent in the waters. Already an "expert" by proclamation by other less experienced surfers he on the otherhand knew he hadn't "got it" quite yet although he would catch a knowing glance from seasoned pros from time to time. Sort of a you're in the club type recognition from those who had paid their dues to learn the craft. No shortcuts just hours of dedication entirely for the satisfaction not the recognition.
One day nothing changed yet a quantum leap was made. He pulled into a wave and simply rode it better, longer, and with greater skill than ever before. A personal accomplishment. It was a simple tactical change or perhaps a change in confidence. Suddenly that which didn't seem possible not only had became possible but it was found to be the only real path if success in "making the wave" was to be fulfiled. Steeper, later, deeper drops, a change to higher tighter lines, holding those lines longer, turning earlier into the pocket, fading the speed, powering through the lips, etc. All of a sudden all the individual moves which up to that point were technically good but had yet to be strung into a cohesive fluid style was made. Did he still fall, yes but less frequently. Did he get hurt yes but rarely as he knew how to stay out of trouble even while chasing potentially dangerous waves with sharp reefs underlying their seductive forms. That one wave marked a demonstrable turning point in his skill level and like riding a bike it never leaves.
Good Luck
After a time skill ceased to matter. The water became so crowded with other surfers that crashes and fights were more common than nice long rides. Eventually even dawn patrol offered no respite. (noise)
So the lonely surfer took his game elsewhere. Northern California? Costa Rica? (small caps, emerging markets)
Brookings, Oregon was too cold! (pink sheet, BB)
He did make sure to avoid really hollow breaks with rocks at low tide. (respecting optimal F)
Quote from BertH:
I'm trying to think simplistically in the manner you're hinting at, but admit I'm drawing a blank. Maybe it will come in time.
The thing that turned me around, was the simple process of taking out a sheet of paper, upon which I wrote my account balance, at the end of each and day. As if by magic, my losses stopped running too far - and I found that I executed my main strategy far more precisely.
Quote from BertH:
I get the overall messages with the surfer analogies. The last one seems to say that just as you figure it all out in one market, the game changes and you seek others that can match with your experiences and strategies for making money.
Sorry, that wasn't meant to have any significant message to you.
I've been thinking about your situation for a few days now. I commend you for asking the right questions and being honest with yourself. Few people can do such; you must have a very practical streak in you. I've been on this earth almost 4 decades and I've yet to meet someone who loses money in Vegas. Yet, the casinos keep making billions. So who is lying? Is it the publicly traded & audited casinos or the gamblers? I strongly suspect the situation is very similar in speculative trading. Denial is just as much a human trait as envy and greed.
The point is that your situation is common. The following is my opinion but is based on many years of observation: 90%+ of retail traders lose their money (they usually keep quiet about this). Of the remaining 10% most essentially break even (again usually quietly), a few get very lucky and tell everyone that will listen about how they knew this and that.
There is no shame is not being able to trade profitably. Even with every structural advantage professional traders usually underperform their benchmarks (many blow out or bleed away). They just don't market uderperformance....they only crow during good streaks....not unlike many of the participants here at ET.
Think in terms of opportunity cost. What else COULD you be doing with your time?
Take care.
Quote from BertH:
I get the overall messages with the surfer analogies. The last one seems to say that just as you figure it all out in one market, the game changes and you seek others that can match with your experiences and strategies for making money.
Bert,it seems like you respond much better to the "philosophical" questions,but when pose with..
I assume you are trading equities??
What duration,and what time frame??
How extensively have you backtested your "belieifs"??
What are you benchmarking your trading against??
can you pinpoint where you have been successful and where you have failed??
I didnt get a responce.If you cant answer the questions,or they arent readily available,you should step back from trading and take a break...perhaps a very long one.
You need to take this game very seriously
tao, I definitely take it seriously, though I acknowledge, in hindsight, I may not have tested my theories as thoroughly as I thought.
I trade equities, basically on daily or hourly timeframes, most of the time. I won't wait for those time frames to be completed if the position goes strongly the wrong way, as I believe in setting stop-losses.
As to backtesting, it's been solely back-viewing, reviewing chart after chart to find the most similar setups possible to see consistency/reliability. Sometimes, it's resulted in some really good trades. The next time or so, it may lose almost as much. I'll then review further, finding I missed something that may be pertinent, and then go back and analyze all the prior setups that were similar again.
At times, it feels as if all one is doing is eliminating potential trades. That's not a bad thing, necessarily, because I believe in being selective, going for quality. Recently, though, it got to where nothing looked reliable enough. Perhaps it's as much to do with timing as anything---maybe the market action the last weeks has been out of character with the last couple of years enough to throw most "reliable" setups out the window.
It's maybe as much the pscyhological fatigue right now as anything else that has me taking a step back and a deep breath for the time being.
I trade equities, basically on daily or hourly timeframes, most of the time. I won't wait for those time frames to be completed if the position goes strongly the wrong way, as I believe in setting stop-losses.
As to backtesting, it's been solely back-viewing, reviewing chart after chart to find the most similar setups possible to see consistency/reliability. Sometimes, it's resulted in some really good trades. The next time or so, it may lose almost as much. I'll then review further, finding I missed something that may be pertinent, and then go back and analyze all the prior setups that were similar again.
At times, it feels as if all one is doing is eliminating potential trades. That's not a bad thing, necessarily, because I believe in being selective, going for quality. Recently, though, it got to where nothing looked reliable enough. Perhaps it's as much to do with timing as anything---maybe the market action the last weeks has been out of character with the last couple of years enough to throw most "reliable" setups out the window.
It's maybe as much the pscyhological fatigue right now as anything else that has me taking a step back and a deep breath for the time being.
Just a thought,
Sometimes it has more to do with psychology as I and many others have alluded to in this thread.
Have you ever thought that maybe you're really close to where you need to be with your analysis and methods, and it could be something rather small, maybe a tweak rather than an overhaul.
I know, in my personal experience, it was time frames. There is nothing wrong with scalping and day trading, but for me, it was like banging my head against a wall. I only take intraday trades when I have THE EDGE, and mostly trade options and swings. Resistance and support levels are what I concentrate on. Now it took me plenty of time to refine my methods, but perhaps you are closer than you think. Keep at it, maybe go to paper trading and tinker with it then go back to the real deal.
That is why when I try to stress the "journey" it's about the process and your attitude during that process. Remember doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is INSANITY. The fact that you have started this thread is proof that you're committed to stopping the insanity, now it's time for introspection and refining your methods. Concentrate on the process then start layering things upon that and test.
Quite possibly you may be close, but sometimes the last inch is the one that is the hardest fought.
Sometimes it has more to do with psychology as I and many others have alluded to in this thread.
Have you ever thought that maybe you're really close to where you need to be with your analysis and methods, and it could be something rather small, maybe a tweak rather than an overhaul.
I know, in my personal experience, it was time frames. There is nothing wrong with scalping and day trading, but for me, it was like banging my head against a wall. I only take intraday trades when I have THE EDGE, and mostly trade options and swings. Resistance and support levels are what I concentrate on. Now it took me plenty of time to refine my methods, but perhaps you are closer than you think. Keep at it, maybe go to paper trading and tinker with it then go back to the real deal.
That is why when I try to stress the "journey" it's about the process and your attitude during that process. Remember doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is INSANITY. The fact that you have started this thread is proof that you're committed to stopping the insanity, now it's time for introspection and refining your methods. Concentrate on the process then start layering things upon that and test.
Quite possibly you may be close, but sometimes the last inch is the one that is the hardest fought.
Quote from BertH:
tao, I definitely take it seriously, though I acknowledge, in hindsight, I may not have tested my theories as thoroughly as I thought.
I trade equities, basically on daily or hourly timeframes, most of the time. I won't wait for those time frames to be completed if the position goes strongly the wrong way, as I believe in setting stop-losses.
As to backtesting, it's been solely back-viewing, reviewing chart after chart to find the most similar setups possible to see consistency/reliability. Sometimes, it's resulted in some really good trades. The next time or so, it may lose almost as much. I'll then review further, finding I missed something that may be pertinent, and then go back and analyze all the prior setups that were similar again.
At times, it feels as if all one is doing is eliminating potential trades. That's not a bad thing, necessarily, because I believe in being selective, going for quality. Recently, though, it got to where nothing looked reliable enough. Perhaps it's as much to do with timing as anything---maybe the market action the last weeks has been out of character with the last couple of years enough to throw most "reliable" setups out the window.
It's maybe as much the pscyhological fatigue right now as anything else that has me taking a step back and a deep breath for the time being.
Bert,do yourself a favor and save yourself years of aggravation.Get a decent software package that is inexpensive.Amibroker is cery good and it costs 249 dollars.You can download EOD data for free....
The backtester is pretty simple.You can test all your rules,and if you cant code them,just backtest and optomise the stops.Remember,i am telling you to curve fit,just to give you a frame of reference.Then take a look at your backtest reports on an OPTOMIZED system.That is the very best you will do,and it aint happening anytime soon.
You will be lucky to approach half that number.Get an idea of what the distribution of returns should look like.
Right now you are trading totally blind.You should be thankful you are flat.That in itself is quite an accomplishment.I am not telling you to be come a systems trader,but i am telling you that with your current approach,you have very little chance of success,unless you are Dan Zanger Jr....