Disillusioned

[taowave]

Quote from BertH:

tao, I appreciate your post. I must confess, though, other than garnering the notion of repetition in anything needed to succeed, I am fuzzy on what you're trying to say. The problem, as you even alluded to, is repetition done in the wrong fashion leads to extinction.

When I speak of candlesticks, I'm mainly referring to just looking at the price and volume action. I rarely, if ever, use any indicators. Is this still BS to fool with?

Thanks.

I may have mislead you a bit with the Tai Chi analogy.I was actually attempting to illustrate that people filter out what they may or may not want to hear...

Here is my point..We all have a set of beliefs as to what should and shouldnt work..For some of us it is the mystical Elliot Wave/Gann,for others it is candlesticks.How and why did you arrive at candlesticks??

The good news is off all the things to choose,you have selected a tool that is probably the most easily backtested....

But i still ask why candlesticks?

 

[BertH]

I meant to clarify that I actually do use moving averages, just not all the additional stuff most of the time.
Some of the approaches, like Wave analysis, seemed too esoteric and long-term for me. I liked the visual and short-term "clarity" of the candlesticks and, coupled with moving averages (though they're a lagging indicator), I believed I could trade off of patterns that seemed to have reasonable reliability.

I'm reassessing or doubting that confidence now, obviously.

 

[jackflash]

Bert-

You may count yourself lucky to come to all this questioning so soon in your trading career. Some hardheads like myself take alot longer to reach the low point and never evaluate what the heck we are doing in this business.

I gave up trading entirely for awhile; maybe seven or eight years. Over the years leading up to my sabbatical, my experiences only solidified and substantiated the notion of everyone I spoke with about trading commodities. It's still probably the number one comment from the knowing and unknowing alike…"man, you can lose your ass trading commodities." That’s just what I did…a couple of times.

I would venture to say u wont give up trading. You might let it lay for awhile but you will get back on some study or something that will consume your energy and time for years to come...until you reach exhaustion.

For what its worth, when I reached that exhaustion point (after almost 20years) I just went back to the most elemental basics, and I mean elemental basics, to enter and exit my trades. Suprisingly, these simple basics are way outside the conventional wisdom and teaching box!

Perhaps you should entertain the idea of doing the same. Knowing there is ONE CERTAINTY with any market or stock you trade...the market or stock can do anything at any time. If you accept this certainty, your trek will not be without reward. And, it could save you years of further frustrations with following suggestions and experiences of others who school the never ending quest for the eluding illusion.

 

[taowave]

Quote from jackflash:

Bert-

You may count yourself lucky to come to all this questioning so soon in your trading career. Some hardheads like myself take alot longer to reach the low point and never evaluate what the heck we are doing in this business.

I gave up trading entirely for awhile; maybe seven or eight years. Over the years leading up to my sabbatical, my experiences only solidified and substantiated the notion of everyone I spoke with about trading commodities. It's still probably the number one comment from the knowing and unknowing alike…"man, you can lose your ass trading commodities." That’s just what I did…a couple of times.

I would venture to say u wont give up trading. You might let it lay for awhile but you will get back on some study or something that will consume your energy and time for years to come...until you reach exhaustion.

For what its worth, when I reached that exhaustion point (after almost 20years) I just went back to the most elemental basics, and I mean elemental basics, to enter and exit my trades. Suprisingly, these simple basics are way outside the conventional wisdom and teaching box!

Perhaps you should entertain the idea of doing the same. Knowing there is ONE CERTAINTY with any market or stock you trade...the market or stock can do anything at any time. If you accept this certainty, your trek will not be without reward. And, it could save you years of further frustrations with following suggestions and experiences of others who school the never ending quest for the eluding illusion.

Great post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bert,jack is leading you down the path....You have no idea how far ahead of the game you are by being self reflective,and admitting to yourself that something is wrong....

Read jacks last paragraph,and take it to heart....I am telling you that there is a solution.But first you need to identify the problem.I think you have successfully done that.

You next need to address yourself,your beliefs and most importantly your strength and weaknesses.

If you like you can email me directly and tell me as openly as you like what your inherent strengths/weakness...On the board works for me as well.

I still would like to know how you arrived at the set of tools you have selected to risk your very precious capital...financial as well as emotional

 

[BertH]

jackflash, thanks. Sounds like you may have found your reward. I'm trying to think simplistically in the manner you're hinting at, but admit I'm drawing a blank. Maybe it will come in time.

tao, here's what I typed above in response to your question. Maybe it's not detailed enough, but this is the macro reason. I also didn't believe the longer-term focus on fundamentals trading was the answer for my temperament.

"Some of the approaches, like Wave analysis, seemed too esoteric and long-term for me. I liked the visual and short-term "clarity" of the candlesticks and, coupled with moving averages (though they're a lagging indicator), I believed I could trade off of patterns that seemed to have reasonable reliability."

 

[abxs]

Quote from Cheese:

Well how long have you been checking or using your signals for entry? What market or instrument are you trading?

I've been trading DAX futures and have my system up and running for about 3 months...

 

[taowave]

Quote from BertH:



tao, here's what I typed above in response to your question. Maybe it's not detailed enough, but this is the macro reason. I also didn't believe the longer-term focus on fundamentals trading was the answer for my temperament.

"Some of the approaches, like Wave analysis, seemed too esoteric and long-term for me. I liked the visual and short-term "clarity" of the candlesticks and, coupled with moving averages (though they're a lagging indicator), I believed I could trade off of patterns that seemed to have reasonable reliability."

Bert,take a look at what you just sent me....In particular...

"You didnt believe"

" I liked the visual and short term clarity"

"I believed I could trade off"

"Seemed to have reasonable reliabilty"

Do you really think you gave yourself a fair chance to succeed??

 

[BertH]

Fair question, and maybe not. That's why--as many have advised--I'm backing away from the table for the time being.

 

[taowave]

Quote from BertH:

Fair question, and maybe not. That's why--as many have advised--I'm backing away from the table for the time being.

Bert,i was merely trying to get you to see that most of your statements were based off your belief systems,and i am not sure where or how you formulated your opionions...

Excuse me as I have not gone thru the 20 someodd pages,but what is the foundation of your work based on?

I assume you are trading equities??

What duration,and what time frame??

How extensively have you backtested your "belieifs"??

What are you benchmarking your trading against??

can you pinpoint where you have been successful and where you have failed??

I dont believe backing off is the answer

 

[duard]

Quote from niceneasy:

surfing is a great analogy for trading. once you are experienced ...

The breakthrough came after many years spent in the waters. Already an "expert" by proclamation by other less experienced surfers he on the otherhand knew he hadn't "got it" quite yet although he would catch a knowing glance from seasoned pros from time to time. Sort of a you're in the club type recognition from those who had paid their dues to learn the craft. No shortcuts just hours of dedication entirely for the satisfaction not the recognition.


One day nothing changed yet a quantum leap was made. He pulled into a wave and simply rode it better, longer, and with greater skill than ever before. A personal accomplishment. It was a simple tactical change or perhaps a change in confidence. Suddenly that which didn't seem possible not only had became possible but it was found to be the only real path if success in "making the wave" was to be fulfiled. Steeper, later, deeper drops, a change to higher tighter lines, holding those lines longer, turning earlier into the pocket, fading the speed, powering through the lips, etc. All of a sudden all the individual moves which up to that point were technically good but had yet to be strung into a cohesive fluid style was made. Did he still fall, yes but less frequently. Did he get hurt yes but rarely as he knew how to stay out of trouble even while chasing potentially dangerous waves with sharp reefs underlying their seductive forms. That one wave marked a demonstrable turning point in his skill level and like riding a bike it never leaves.

Good Luck