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Disillusioned
- Thread starter BertH
- Start date
Quote from fletch2:
The game "teaches" you the wrong lesson all the time. "I lost money there, I guess I did something wrong", or "I won money, I played that right!" Being able to see through this and not be affected by it is a huge key to success. So goes trading.
Fletch
How do you see through this and learn or know how to change your approach? I see the comment from Jficquette above (thanks) - what do you think?
Charts work, but they only work reliably under the same conditions that moving averages and just about anything andeverything else works. If nothing else they can give a clean entry into a trend. I never buy a trend just because it is a trend without that kind of entry. Buying into a steady uptrend randomly is not a dramatically skewed risk:reward profile.
Try and understand what is happening rather than look for 5 waves in a triangle etc If it is that perfect it has probably been painted. As someone else touched on, look at what happened before a big mover took off. I look for my own chart patterns, and only a few are text book patterns. e.g. I don't look for a "double bottom" per se I look for somebody smashing a stock down, seeing it rebound , smashing it down again, seeing it rebound again. He would conclude that this is probably as low as he can force it - so what is his next move? (note this is not your standard text book double bottom - what precedes it gives clues, but Bukowlski is right - the closer the two bottoms the better. To my mind indicative of deliberate action with a purpose rather than random)
Most people look at a stock at a high and how it got there, I am more interested in stocks at a low and how they got there. The game is played the opposite way round from the face value and any information that got as far as me must be disinformation.
Try and understand what is happening rather than look for 5 waves in a triangle etc If it is that perfect it has probably been painted. As someone else touched on, look at what happened before a big mover took off. I look for my own chart patterns, and only a few are text book patterns. e.g. I don't look for a "double bottom" per se I look for somebody smashing a stock down, seeing it rebound , smashing it down again, seeing it rebound again. He would conclude that this is probably as low as he can force it - so what is his next move? (note this is not your standard text book double bottom - what precedes it gives clues, but Bukowlski is right - the closer the two bottoms the better. To my mind indicative of deliberate action with a purpose rather than random)
Most people look at a stock at a high and how it got there, I am more interested in stocks at a low and how they got there. The game is played the opposite way round from the face value and any information that got as far as me must be disinformation.
Quote from BertH:
psychoanalitics, I understand what you're saying about it taking doctors and such a very long time. Even so, I would have expected, thru all this time, I wouldn't have traveled what seems like a mere elongated circle. That, perhaps more than anything--the basic lack of progress--is what's so discouraging for me.
But I must ask--is roughly five-plus years really the norm for solid success on a consistent basis? I don't want to underestimate anyone's path of effort, and agree it can't be done overnight. Just seems that may be a bit long in some cases.
I prefer trading on either an hourly candle or daily candle basis, looking for brief consolidations amidst up or down trends, or points of likely reversal. On the latter, I'm sure the intensity of the downward path the main indices has taken causes such a strategy to be much less profitable. Even so, in looking it all over, seems so futile.
I thought I'd never say that.
Follow the index futures for 5-7 years tick by tick day by day. Ignor all financial news just focus on your intraday charts, use money mannagment rules. Use self control. After 5 years you will get the hang of it.
Bert,
If I may offer you some very simple advice,it is to stop bullshitting around with chart patterens,technical indicators,candlesticks and god knows what else..The answer is much simpler,and you have already discovered the most important part,but the inner seeker in all of us wont let us see the truth.
Human beings tend to Seek the Miraculous...It simply doesnt exist,yet i can not tell you how many times,no matter what i say,no matter what evidence i provide,they refuse to listen to what i am saying.They will only hear it.....
As a corralary,I happen to teach and train people in the martial arts.I studied with a very famous master in tai Chi,which is one of the more mystical martial arts.Students alays approached him and asked how he acheived such tremendous power.Hi reply was simply,pracuoce the form 100x per day an focus on staying relaxed and rooted.No matter how many time he said the same thing over and over,the student would ask "No, No what is the secret?" The answer never changed,and the student went on seeking..
i dont know if you have watched the Ultimate Fighing on TV,but the best thing about it is that it has demystified the mystical.it is now VERY clear what works and what doesnt work.There are a few outliers of individuals who possess extraordianary talent who stand out and can do things their own way,but in 99% of fights,its clear as to what is the most effective style and approach....
Trading is combat....You make a mistake,and the penalty is severe.Make too many mistakes and you go the way of the dinosaur.
I have puposely left the "answer" vague,but i do promise you there is an answer.And its much simpler than you think.I was the ex head trader of emerging maket derivatives at a major investment bank,and the truth is,after I left and went out on my own,I couldnt trade my way out of a paper bag.
I now have close to 30% returns non levered(i am risk averse)and it wasnt until i abandoned my belief system and treated my trading as i do my training(martial arts),that I turned things around.
I do believe there are no victims,only volunteers...
If I may offer you some very simple advice,it is to stop bullshitting around with chart patterens,technical indicators,candlesticks and god knows what else..The answer is much simpler,and you have already discovered the most important part,but the inner seeker in all of us wont let us see the truth.
Human beings tend to Seek the Miraculous...It simply doesnt exist,yet i can not tell you how many times,no matter what i say,no matter what evidence i provide,they refuse to listen to what i am saying.They will only hear it.....
As a corralary,I happen to teach and train people in the martial arts.I studied with a very famous master in tai Chi,which is one of the more mystical martial arts.Students alays approached him and asked how he acheived such tremendous power.Hi reply was simply,pracuoce the form 100x per day an focus on staying relaxed and rooted.No matter how many time he said the same thing over and over,the student would ask "No, No what is the secret?" The answer never changed,and the student went on seeking..
i dont know if you have watched the Ultimate Fighing on TV,but the best thing about it is that it has demystified the mystical.it is now VERY clear what works and what doesnt work.There are a few outliers of individuals who possess extraordianary talent who stand out and can do things their own way,but in 99% of fights,its clear as to what is the most effective style and approach....
Trading is combat....You make a mistake,and the penalty is severe.Make too many mistakes and you go the way of the dinosaur.
I have puposely left the "answer" vague,but i do promise you there is an answer.And its much simpler than you think.I was the ex head trader of emerging maket derivatives at a major investment bank,and the truth is,after I left and went out on my own,I couldnt trade my way out of a paper bag.
I now have close to 30% returns non levered(i am risk averse)and it wasnt until i abandoned my belief system and treated my trading as i do my training(martial arts),that I turned things around.
I do believe there are no victims,only volunteers...
tao, I appreciate your post. I must confess, though, other than garnering the notion of repetition in anything needed to succeed, I am fuzzy on what you're trying to say. The problem, as you even alluded to, is repetition done in the wrong fashion leads to extinction.
When I speak of candlesticks, I'm mainly referring to just looking at the price and volume action. I rarely, if ever, use any indicators. Is this still BS to fool with?
Thanks.
When I speak of candlesticks, I'm mainly referring to just looking at the price and volume action. I rarely, if ever, use any indicators. Is this still BS to fool with?
Thanks.