Discussion on stocks with earning reports due

xandman · Jul 16, 2015

hajimow said:
INTC is pulling back and gravitating to 30 for tomorrow's close and even maybe 29. I have not lost my hope on NFLX to close at 100 tomorrow. You don't buy NFLX because of valuation, you buy it because of its momentum. Maybe a good trade would be buying PUT 105 expiring tomorrow.

The momentum is still up. Seems your dislike for the stock is clouding your judgement. Not a bad idea to buy the puts if you think you can catch the turn. There's probably 1-2 days before vol bottoms out.

hajimow · Jul 16, 2015

xandman said:
The momentum is still up. Seems your dislike for the stock is clouding your judgement. Not a bad idea to buy the puts if you think you can catch the turn. There's probably 1-2 days before vol bottoms out.

I would like to repeat that I don't trade INTC and specially NFLX. These are just my ideas and observations. I neither buy nor short them.

xandman · Jul 16, 2015

hajimow said:
I would like to repeat that I don't trade INTC and specially NFLX. These are just my ideas and observations. I neither buy nor short them.

I just buy and sell the NFLX volatility.

Back on topic. AMZN has run ahead of itself. I would be quite surprised if it stacks on the the typical jump on earnings. Anybody have a good explanation?

i960 · Jul 16, 2015

Closed my short NFLX puts. Hedged the call side. Currently about -800$ on the position overall. Will wait it out based on overall market and ridiculous climb. It might get worse but it'll get worse less.

xandman · Jul 16, 2015

On a 2 lot straddle from the 400s? That's immaterial. You might as well account for that as the bid/ask spread. I'm surprised you didn't make any money.

i960 · Jul 16, 2015

xandman said:
On a 2 lot straddle from the 400s? That's immaterial. You might as well account for that as the bid/ask spread. I'm surprised you didn't make any money.

400s? These were 98.57s about 30 cents off ATM at the open. It's the call side that's got the position down. It's alright though I'll just wait it out. If it continues to be a loser I close and accept.

xandman · Jul 16, 2015

Ah, NFLX always jumps. You have to price in a 10% move in one direction at the least.

Check out TSLA. However, the pre-earnings IV peaks have been going lower and lower. And, I fear that Elon Musk will drop the bomb on us some day. Like a modern day DeLorean.

ET180 · Jul 16, 2015

After watching the moves in Netflix, Amazon, Starbucks, Facebook, and Google, I'm seriously questioning why not just move my entire portfolio into growth stocks? Sure Netflix had a hiccup in 2012 where it lost about 75% of it's value, but it eventually gained it all back within a few months. It was also basically unaffected by the 2008 crash. Amazon took a hit in 2008, but no worse than the S&P 500 average. I don't understand why anyone would own something like an XOM, GE, MSFT, DD, PG, MMM, or any utility that just goes sideways or down for the year when they can own a stock that returns multiples of the S&P average dividend in a single day.

xandman · Jul 16, 2015

ET180 said:
After watching the moves in Netflix, Amazon, Starbucks, Facebook, and Google, I'm seriously questioning why not just move my entire portfolio into growth stocks? Sure Netflix had a hiccup in 2012 where it lost about 75% of it's value, but it eventually gained it all back within a few months. It was also basically unaffected by the 2008 crash. Amazon took a hit in 2008, but no worse than the S&P 500 average. I don't understand why anyone would own something like an XOM, GE, MSFT, DD, PG, MMM, or any utility that just goes sideways or down for the year when they can own a stock that returns multiples of the S&P average dividend in a single day.

Amazon loosing as much as the SP500 on the same percentage basis during a consumer recession is incredible out performance!!! I use the previous recession as the acid test for any consumer stock.

Though, I think traditional LV stocks will have their day. Wasn't there a "dividend bubble" just a few years ago? Well, those guys still made out like bandits.

Let's stay focused on upcoming earnings plays, pls.

recession2016 · Jul 16, 2015

looking for a pull back in NFLX to the trendline it broke out of ~$105

shorted @ 116.25 and will short more if it heads higher

this stock is euphoric so this short is risky but the risk/reward seems good to me