Direction for stocks and futures:

[Aisone]

You never know whether or not you are "getting in" just before a reversal.

Yes, there is "buy low, sell high".... but there is also "buy high and sell higher" and "sell low and buy lower"... which occur on successful breakout trades.

If one can identify reversal potential, a trader can get in a trend before they begin. But not meant to be critical, just there is a whole other side with vast potential than those who look for trends that have already been underway. It's a different mentality though, ie if a position goes against the trader, adding to it is a greater consideration, because if it was a 'great' buy/sell at 'this' price, it's even better at 'THIS' price or at this 'rate of change.' That can be very hard to do though and pretty risky.

 

[Aisone]

normally my trades lasted 1.3 days in duration, until 911 then i think everyone's life changed especially professional money managers who not only had to deal with their own losses but those of clients.

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Not really sure how that affects one's analysis of an instrument's movement over time such that you're now looking at a much shorter time frame to hold a position.

 

[Scataphagos]

If one can identify reversal potential, a trader can get in a trend before they begin. But not meant to be critical, just there is a whole other side with vast potential than those who look for trends that have already been underway. It's a different mentality though, ie if a position goes against the trader, adding to it is a greater consideration, because if it was a 'great' buy/sell at 'this' price, it's even better at 'THIS' price or at this 'rate of change.' That can be very hard to do though and pretty risky.

IMV, you're pretty much right about all that.

Price TA is the roadmap... it tells you "when things may have begun and when they may have ended"... does not tell "how far will they run and how long will they last"... that has to be evaluated "on the fly".

 

[spooz]

If one can identify reversal potential, a trader can get in a trend before they begin. But not meant to be critical, just there is a whole other side with vast potential than those who look for trends that have already been underway. It's a different mentality though, ie if a position goes against the trader, adding to it is a greater consideration, because if it was a 'great' buy/sell at 'this' price, it's even better at 'THIS' price or at this 'rate of change.' That can be very hard to do though and pretty risky.

I think you will find that there are far more reversal points than there are reversals.

 

[Aisone]

I think you will find that there are far more reversal points than there are reversals.

Well, if there is a 'reversal point' and it doesn't reverse, then it's not really a reversal point, is it?

 

[spooz]

Well, if there is a 'reversal point' and it doesn't reverse, then it's not really a reversal point, is it?

My point exactly. Wait and see if it is or isn't. Even then it may not go very far.

 

[Aisone]

My point exactly. Wait and see if it is or isn't. Even then it may not go very far.

I read what you said as 'most reversal points aren't actually reversals', which says to me that whatever one is using to determine a "reversal point" or whatever it means in TA is it's usually a wrong measurement or an incomplete analysis. That suggests imo one should dig deeper for how a true reversal is actually constituted, because that either isn't it or there is more to it than that.

 

[spooz]

I read what you said as 'most reversal points aren't actually reversals', which says to me that whatever one is using to determine a "reversal point" or whatever it means in TA is it's usually a wrong measurement or an incomplete analysis. That suggests imo one should dig deeper for how a true reversal is actually constituted.

Just go and play with a market for a year or two, then we can resume the discussion. I understand that everyone has to start somewhere but I think you are demanding that the market forms to your wishes, whereas it's the other way round. There is nothing that can be predicted with accuracy.

 

[Aisone]

If there is nothing that can be predicted with accuracy, then why would something be called a 'reversal point' if it has no statistical significance related to reversing? But I wasn't being facetious and was serious - if it's not accurate often or reliable in identifiable circumstances, it's because it's not done right or is incomplete, so don't accept that criteria as the only thing there is. I say that from [decades of] experience in this area, not lack of.

 

[murray t turtle]

You never know whether or not you are "getting in" just before a reversal.

Yes, there is "buy low, sell high".... but there is also "buy high and sell higher" and "sell low and buy lower"... which occur on successful breakout trades.

%%
Good points+ more good.
And that's why on shooting migratory birds[ moving birds] no one uses a single shot rifle.
1 oz of#9 lead shot has 585 pellets in it. Most do 2 or 3 shots, not a single shot.
Average hit rate is 20% on doves. Dallas Fed Rich Fisher said monetary policy is like shooting ducks\ get out in front of them\LOL
Migratory birds dip + duck+ turn all the time.