direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

babe714 · Sep 1, 2009

j

Quote from nukethewhales31:

well for me this means that bias or buy/sell pressure that creates trend drives trend ... and thus this is what i want to look for when i initially show interest in my trade...

how do i find bias?

easy enough the way i approach this is by looking on higher time frames.

if you trade the hourly like me i look at the daily the daily shows my bias thus if the daily is showing negative bias ill only trade in the direction of that bias .. downward...

Say i am trading the daily (FSLR) . Which higher time frame do I look at to determine long or short bias ?

nukethewhales31 · Sep 2, 2009

Quote from babe714:

j

Say i am trading the daily (FSLR) . Which higher time frame do I look at to determine long or short bias ?

i would say you could get the best idea on the daily as im looking at it now it has strong short bias but your 140% below so i wouldnt short on the daily maybe small scalps but i think that you would be scalping against where it should be moving.

if your a position trader to me seems like a good long... i would slowly be building a position long... and i mean slowly

if your a pure technician this isnt a good trade for you

Statistically I would be building a long position in this

babe714 · Sep 3, 2009

Quote from nukethewhales31:

i would say you could get the best idea on the daily as im looking at it now it has strong short bias but your 140% below so i wouldnt short on the daily maybe small scalps but i think that you would be scalping against where it should be moving.

if your a position trader to me seems like a good long... i would slowly be building a position long... and i mean slowly

if your a pure technician this isnt a good trade for you

Statistically I would be building a long position in this

thanks for your input Nuke, actually was planning to use your profit extraction method outlined in this thread

nukethewhales31 · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from nukethewhales31:

i would say you could get the best idea on the daily as im looking at it now it has strong short bias but your 140% below so i wouldnt short on the daily maybe small scalps but i think that you would be scalping against where it should be moving.

if your a position trader to me seems like a good long... i would slowly be building a position long... and i mean slowly

if your a pure technician this isnt a good trade for you

Statistically I would be building a long position in this

well from that zone where this sucker was down hard at 7 days ago when i said statistically i would build a long.... I hope you got in that babe that sucker is up like 25% good pick...

when you asked that was 7 candles down into some significant areas... with alot of buying in the main river... tremendous pick
lemme know if you got in this.

babe714 · Sep 15, 2009

Quote from nukethewhales31:

well from that zone where this sucker was down hard at 7 days ago when i said statistically i would build a long.... I hope you got in that babe that sucker is up like 25% good pick... when you asked that was 7 candles down into some significant areas... with alot of buying in the main river... tremendous pick
lemme know if you got in this.

nice pick nuke , I missed out though. Have you had a chance to look through Emintraders system. Kind of similar to yours.http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=154069&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

nukethewhales31 · Sep 15, 2009

Quote from babe714:

nice pick nuke , I missed out though. Have you had a chance to look through Emintraders system. Kind of similar to yours.http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=154069&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

took a quick glance at it thank you for bringing it to my attention. ill have to take some time to break it down and understand it a bit better its fragmented in explanation. its seems basically tho that the river is moving long in equities so he plays long only so that put him in favor with the river. then if price moves x% then price will move to y%, z% of the time. the stop tho is a concern .07 @ 100 and 10 @110 and 20 @120. so your 1 to 1 you have to beat 50 with the river.

babe714 · Sep 16, 2009

Quote from nukethewhales31:

took a quick glance at it thank you for bringing it to my attention. ill have to take some time to break it down and understand it a bit better its fragmented in explanation. its seems basically tho that the river is moving long in equities so he plays long only so that put him in favor with the river. then if price moves x% then price will move to y%, z% of the time. the stop tho is a concern .07 @ 100 and 10 @110 and 20 @120. so your 1 to 1 you have to beat 50 with the river.

the way i saw it
if long triggers stop is 7 cents below open price
if short triggers stop is 7 cents above the open price

L5 calculation is not revealed.

can be traded both long and short at the same time

my results of using the method are on p.52

mockney · Sep 16, 2009

Nuke,
really interesting thread, thanks for all your posts on this subject.

I've read the thread through several times and made a bunch of notes - trying to round out my understanding.

I noticed the videos you uploaded to Savefile are gone - do you still have these available somewhere I could take a look at please?

nukethewhales31 · Sep 18, 2009

Quote from mockney:

Nuke,
really interesting thread, thanks for all your posts on this subject.

I've read the thread through several times and made a bunch of notes - trying to round out my understanding.

I noticed the videos you uploaded to Savefile are gone - do you still have these available somewhere I could take a look at please?

sorry bud i guess they deleted them off the server i tried to get em but i made those vid to show how to do things at the time i didnt save them. bummer

Dr Who · Sep 21, 2009

Interesting thread and after spending a few hours trying to digest the system, I wrote a small excel routine which works out the numbers (I think).

Like NWT, I'm having to put each new candle data in by hand which is a pain and I wonder if anyone has written either an MT4 indicator or EA for this. I would have thought this wouldn't be too difficult for a good coder and at one time during the thread I thought TRO might be doing this but he hasn't. I'd be happy to pay an MT4 coder to write one for me.

For those of you interested in similar concepts I'd take a look at this thread too: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=175227

One question tho for NTW. When I wake up in the morning in London and start to trade, over half my data will be full of very quiet Asian candles. London zone candles then change the overall picture quite a lot and so it would be interesting to hear your comments regarding best times to trade.