The NPR% from the tick data found that from open if price moved 2.1 pips from open price would continue to at least 5.4 pips from open with 90% accuracy on the EUR/USD
direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31
- Thread starter nukethewhales31
- Start date
any questions?
This calculation with tick data is equivalent to the manual process you were going through with bar data right?
How many hours of tick data was analyzed?
How many hours of tick data was analyzed?
thats correct same idea but this time we dont need to swap lsd's or sld's as tick data is very clear of its movements and only goes in one direction
the idea of going through the other stuff was to give you the concept show you that even the beginning concept works..
show you how the calcs are done because this doesnt only work for distances from open
you can find
-statistical distances when price breaks past high it will continue to moving in that direction or pull back
-prices statistical action when it creates a low repasses the open how far it goes statistically.
-etc.
so you can apply this to anything and be successful
to can find statistical reaction levels with what you trade lets say you trade a macd cross system you can run this to find better entrys/better stops/ better tp's
from our data this graph
check out this
TRO's manual on buyzone is sorta what we've been testing statistically
his is fixed tho note that the market is always changing its not as rigid rules with hard numbers.
im not pushing this by all means so dont think that i am im simply making an observation that his is fixed remember to keep your variable test multiple samples.
remember to run the stats ... as this is a sever process of curve fitting data remember to out-of-sample data test your stats once you are finished creating them.
every vehicle is different across the board so stick to one vehicle and trade it well.
TRO's manual on buyzone is sorta what we've been testing statistically
his is fixed tho note that the market is always changing its not as rigid rules with hard numbers.
im not pushing this by all means so dont think that i am im simply making an observation that his is fixed remember to keep your variable test multiple samples.
remember to run the stats ... as this is a sever process of curve fitting data remember to out-of-sample data test your stats once you are finished creating them.
every vehicle is different across the board so stick to one vehicle and trade it well.
I will now only be checking this thread in order to answer questions or to assist people who need a little help running this.
Do you still need the bias from the 20 period MA? It seems like you'd be able to derive a bias from the tick data by seeing which direction the long sides have been poking out. i.e. have they mostly been poking up or down?
if you record annotate bias in the excel you can see compared to bias how many times it moves with bias or against it or how far it moves with bias and how far against it.
yup correct tick data can give you bias information as well.
Interesting. Well, I don't have good forex tick data, but I *do* have good index futures data.
This should be fun since I'm a programmer and it's right up my alley.
This should be fun since I'm a programmer and it's right up my alley.