direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

exited this line im not gonna pay a K to play.

maybe buy on pullback or resumption well see

break out now probably good till at least.... 50 psych + 1/4 pivot _ statistical TP point for a 3hr break out...

not gonna play tho my rules dont fit.
 

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im gonna go get a cheese burger
2.26% for the day tho not bad.

before i leave tho i did some calc if this hourly candle closes up and the next hourly candle closes up and hits 48 or 50 it has a 76.84% chance of reversing on next bar. probably higher because its a 1/4 pivot and psych zone well see what it does when i get back from wendy's.
 

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Ok good!

I had the worksheet figure O-L and H-L
Then compare each and put the longest in LD and shortest in SD

Which gave me this:

SD
0.002
0.0024
0.0004
0.0016
0.0022
0.0019
0.0024
0.0002
0.0002
0
0.0026
0.0021
0.0062
0.0029
0.0031
0.0004
0.0012
0.0017
0.0012
0.0046
0.001

LD
0.0038
0.0078
0.0143
0.0071
0.0091
0.0035
0.0029
0.0096
0.0006
0.0009
0.0038
0.0077
0.0222
0.0042
0.0042
0.004
0.0034
0.0047
0.004
0.0052
0.0185

Now from what you have told me I need to take any number in the SD that is greater than the lowest in the LD AND transfer that number to the LD column (I hope I got this right)

Lowest in LD is 0.004 so anything greater than that in SD goes into the LD column?

If so here is what I have for a tally of LD and SD:

SD
0.002
0.0002
0.0002
0
0.001

LD
0.0038
0.0078
0.0143
0.0071
0.0091
0.0035
0.0029
0.0096
0.0006
0.0009
0.0038
0.0077
0.0222
0.0042
0.0042
0.004 lowest in LD
0.0034
0.0047
0.004
0.0052
0.0185
0.0026
0.0021
0.0062
0.0029
0.0031
0.0004
0.0012
0.0017
0.0012
0.0046
0.0024
0.0004
0.0016
0.0022
0.0019
0.0024

Is this correct?
 
Quote from armchairtrader:

Ok good!

I had the worksheet figure O-L and H-L
Then compare each and put the longest in LD and shortest in SD

Which gave me this:

SD
0.002
0.0024
0.0004
0.0016
0.0022
0.0019
0.0024
0.0002
0.0002
0
0.0026
0.0021
0.0062
0.0029
0.0031
0.0004
0.0012
0.0017
0.0012
0.0046
0.001

LD
0.0038
0.0078
0.0143
0.0071
0.0091
0.0035
0.0029
0.0096
0.0006
0.0009
0.0038
0.0077
0.0222
0.0042
0.0042
0.004
0.0034
0.0047
0.004
0.0052
0.0185

Now from what you have told me I need to take any number in the SD that is greater than the lowest in the LD AND transfer that number to the LD column (I hope I got this right)

Lowest in LD is 0.004 so anything greater than that in SD goes into the LD column?

If so here is what I have for a tally of LD and SD:

SD
0.002
0.0002
0.0002
0
0.001

LD
0.0038
0.0078
0.0143
0.0071
0.0091
0.0035
0.0029
0.0096
0.0006
0.0009
0.0038
0.0077
0.0222
0.0042
0.0042
0.004 lowest in LD
0.0034
0.0047
0.004
0.0052
0.0185
0.0026
0.0021
0.0062
0.0029
0.0031
0.0004
0.0012
0.0017
0.0012
0.0046
0.0024
0.0004
0.0016
0.0022
0.0019
0.0024

Is this correct?
More...

from the top list there should be more SD's that havent been moved over.

ok no nevermind your right....
 
Quote from nukethewhales31:

im gonna go get a cheese burger
2.26% for the day tho not bad.

before i leave tho i did some calc if this hourly candle closes up and the next hourly candle closes up and hits 48 or 50 it has a 76.84% chance of reversing on next bar. probably higher because its a 1/4 pivot and psych zone well see what it does when i get back from wendy's.
More...

ill be entering when it pieces the 50 probably.... close to the end of the hour.
 

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Quote from nukethewhales31:

from the top list there should be more SD's that havent been moved over.

ok no nevermind your right....
More...

Ok so far so good!

So now how would you use these numbers to calculate the following:


STOP

ENTRANCE

TAKE PROFIT

% probability this trade will work based on N

*Note: as mentioned early these are on the EURUSD 180 and I am coming up to a new bar in about an hour and can recalculate then as well if I can learn the next steps.

The trend is down for bias but you already knew that!

I think I might grab a bite as well

Thanks for helping to clarify!
 
Quote from armchairtrader:

Ok so far so good!

So now how would you use these numbers to calculate the following:


STOP

ENTRANCE

TAKE PROFIT

% probability this trade will work based on N
More...
% acc u determine what your willing to use 90 or 80 or 95 or 85
n 21
so
n*1-% accuracy = # trades can be filtered out the extremes

stops always at open
entrance at LSD +1
tp at SLD -1

MDRR = stop distance: take profit distance
NPOT= ((n*%accuracy)take profit distance from entrance)-((n*1-%accuracy)Staop distance from entrance)

if mdrr is a good ratio for you and Npot is high then trade next candle

*Note: as mentioned early these are on the EURUSD 180 and I am coming up to a new bar in about an hour and can recalculate then as well if I can learn the next steps.

The trend is down for bias but you already knew that!

I think I might grab a bite as well

Thanks for helping to clarify! [/B]
More...

note though we explained that candle formation is a tradable idea but if % accuracy is 90% it doesnt mean 90% of trades will work jsut a higher prob you have to go to tick movement data for that and 20% or so will rotate around the open or fail usually on candle formation stats. so the interception of probs is your true accuracy .9*.8 or 72% to justify 72% and profit your mdrr must be .38888888888889 or higher not including spread to break even

remember that this was the beginning idea before we did the same thing with tick or 1 minute data with the hour as a fixed point.
 
all three candles are up at 15 min left....lets see if our probabilities hold up
or im jsut crazy

we need it to close in a 10 pip zone around the 50 tho

edit: 10 min to new candle and we got a dark cloud formation on the 15 min at the Pivot/stat/psych line with 90% pre-rejection rate if we get the confirmation on the 15 min of the dark cloud then u need to be crazy not to be in.
 

Attachments

bah stopped i didnt notice that on the 3hr we were setup to break at 1.36462 actually wasnt as high prob as i thought oh well as i only rish 1/10 of what i do early in the day at 6:00 or higher didnt really get me to much.. but does erk me that i didnt see that 3hr prob as well im usually good about checkin that shoulda checked when i saw price come down from the trigger and stall at the 45 for about 30 min.

also i noticed ive been making bad trades all day even tho i made 3k for the day... this isnt wat concerns me...

i took a short trade just short of the statistical reversal distance of the week - even tho i made 20 pips it was a bad trade.

i made good statistical pull back from a pulse over a statistical 50 - made 14ish but very bad setup as it was over a statistical entrance of the 3hr bar.

the american trade above stopped at the stat 3hr bar level and...

thats it.. note gotta remember to be more careful....

cockyness hurts.
 

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