Digestion issues in trading

T

toolazy

starting new thread about my trades. I am hoping to improve digestion of news, fundamentals and sentiment and achieve better decisions while in trade.

my trading :

1. swing trade, use stops
2. use fundamentals for bet size, sentiment for timing
3. consider market reflexivity - derives extra signal strength
4. consider algos - use them to my advantage
5. consider large manipulators that depend on income from manipulation - follow them
6. global picture how all fits together - reject some trades as it does not makes sense
7. consider fund managers - source of income

No TA.

Performance is ok, not great. Although my calls are pretty good, $ effect is relatively disappointing.

Wanted to address this by combination of

1. autopilot - some kind of software (in development - excel based) that can be turned on
2. discretionary part - this is where digestion issues come into play

Realised that using only (1) is too limiting and there is no shortcut - have to master (2).

I am already fine in (2) but suffer from bursts of emotional decisions that cost money -digestion problem. The plan - I will capture these moments and turn them into edge - improve my digestion.

No coincidence that trading is not healthy. I believe major reason is that people use force to overcome digestion issues and suffer low quality of life. I try to address this so no health issues.

I found useful to record my thoughts for analysis later.
 
Autopilot:

decision tree based
implemented in excel
based on statistics of past trades

Autopilot will be benchmark I will measure against when making discretionary calls during trade.

Say if autopilot says move stop 5 pips higher and I instead exit position will measure actual pl against virtual pl achieved if i followed autopilot all the way.

I hope to act only when I have strong case and when able to digest situation at hand. So this will involve identification of 'digestion success' state.

I will write update once in the trade which may be tomorrow in audusd.
 
'digestion success'

i am in trade, new situation arises - news for example and market racing against me and closing on stop.

afraid that will be stopped out.

autopilot got me to this point so i feel no responsibility to come up with solution which is whether to go out or not or something else.

instinct saying go out now ! i ignore because of autopilot that is based on stats.

then engage digestion of situation and iterate - have i found solution by digesting situation. this is actual work.
this iterative process continues by natural frequency and time passes and price moves.

maybe at some point in time and price i get - found solution by digesting situation, maybe when price retraces and provides better exit point and exit. Or see clearly that exit is not the right choice and forget the whole thing and let autopilot do the job.

Or i get nothing and let autopilot continue.

this is what i want to master here.

For large wins it is said to sit on hands. No other way. I will decide before entering trade whether looking for biggie and make my intrusions in system harder to do and stop positioning less aggressive.
 
first trade audusd, took long audusd at 10286, moved stop there.

Objective is to extract as many points from this upmove as possible using discretion.

Evaluation 1: Expecting second up leg. If stopped out, bad luck.

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looking at chart and news every hour or so.

Made bold call to exit 10320. See if success. Stop at 10286.

initial risk was 17 so 34 points is 2:1. Price did not move with speed I expected.

See how things unfold and evaluate my exit after the fact.


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price went up another 18 pips and then reversed and would hit stop.

as i check on hourly basis , the highest i could exit 10325. Actual exit 10320.

Will proclaim this discretionary exit as success, saving me 34 pips.

I find it critical to have enough size in trade to activate all sensors. If size not stimulating, i get lazy and don't bother with improving exit.

Still looking for longing aud

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