Quote from Option Trader:
71 million shares have traded today. The level 2 shows on a typical best bid/ask only about 100k shares, and there are times in the day it can sit there a long time. Hence, I think there is more to it than what you are saying.
That's the total volume traded on all ECN's. If you want a more accurate estimate of how long you will wait, you need to look at the rate of trading at the bid on the ECN you placed your order on at the time you placed your order. Which ECN you choose to place your order makes a difference: if 60% of the volume traded on NASDAQ and 20% traded on ARCA, and you had your order on ARCA, your chances of getting filled were lower than if placed on NASDAQ. If you have access to the NASDAQ bookviewer or the ARCA bookviewer, you should be able to see your order moving up