"Efficacy times frequency" is a nice notion. Sorry I misstated what you do as trading the "working dominant fractal". They may mean the same thing.
Reversals and retraces are differentiated immediately upon the beginning of each.
As RN says he uses his eyes and see trends. Maybe he can differentiate, at the beginning, whether a move within a trend is a retrace or a reversal.
A person seeing trends can tell whether a move is a reversal or a retrace immediately since they happen at different times in trends and alway happen in the same relative order.
Some people who trade trends go in at the begining of the trend; others go in at the end of a retrace within a trend and take the trend to its dominant endpoint.
Your explaining the difference in your performance between retraces an reversals is telling. Since it is not possible for you to look at volume to see both major dimensions of the market, then maybe you may be able to consider the market pace (volume) and volatility and bar overlap correlation to volume and then have an indirect measure of the leading indicator of price.
Early in the thread on "ideas and verifying them", the conversation turned to volatility. I interjected the market pace/volatility matrix for consideration. The vertical and horizontal distributions of each variable (other dimension held constant) are Gaussian distributions. Bar volatility and bar to bar overlap are both "naturally" distributed so they are very powerful 'tells" from the market.
If you measured your anxiety (use a EMwave pc meter) you would have proof of your current viewpoint.
you do mix up retraces and reversals as you explained.
at the beginning of your "indended trade", volatility is declining and overlap is increasing. This for the PA oriented person is a tough hols. You don'r as a rule. Waht comes next for retrace lets you get stopped out. what comes next for a reversal is the money making that is 6 times bigger on your equity curve and your personal emotions do not let you get there because of the volatility and overlap symptoms you "percieve". It is the combination of what you "see" visually and your "inference" of failures from your long term memory that end the trade with you exiting as a behavioral action.
I made the pitch to you about "changing your mind". You are going to be unable to do the drills to overcome your present inference. I brought this up before with my example of Talontrading's steadfastness to not think. If he thought, he would have to "change his mind" by veryifiing answers to questions that are different than the answers he now uses for "survival". Most people would rather use survival tactics than "change their minds"
Your trading plan works for reversals and not for retraces where you get stopped out. Unfortunately, you mind takes you out of reversals before they end (by a factor of 6). Since you won't use volume to get away from PA trading, use volatility and bar overlap. Allow the pennant of the beginning of the reversal to occur (FTP for ending a short dominant working fractal or a FBP for ending a long dominant working fractal). Most will see the counterintuitive nature of these formations (they occur in a counterintuitive context). If mentally you get as fat as the increased bar volatility and the decreased bar overlap on BO of the formation, then you can "change your mind's" present first recourse to a new correct first recourse.
none of this will probably happen for you. most people can't get past the counterintuitive nature of markets. Counterintuitive means markets are different than non market "percieving".
