Difference between newbie struggling trader vs successful trader

[volpri]

Here is a view that probably more accurately describe how I view the markets and plan for trading. While I don’t agree completely it is food for thought. Also, don’t necessarily agree with his semantics of the matter. Functionally, I see view the markets as described therein and prefer to make or hold several contingency plans in mind, or “what if” plans, on trades I make.

That is why all is fluid to me. I will change my stop loss, profit target, probability assessment as dynamic PA unfolds. I like to make initial assessments in reward, probability, and risk on each trade if there is time. However, any of that is subject to change as the dynamics play out. I will entirely reverse a position based on a former initial assessment and go the other way if new information reaches my eyeballs.

https://macro-ops.com/the-fallacy-of-market-prediction/

 

[jonahern]

Sorry, but I completely disagree. Professional/Institutional/Hedge fund traders rely on predictive models of one type or another based on some type of data set. That data set can be anything. Their job is to predict what the markets will do and how that stock or basket will react.

Agree 100% - I offer a sub to my opposite bot if anyone interested...

 

[volpri]

A successful trader won't panic with sudden move, rather will trust his/her strategy and wait for SL to hit, on the other hand, a newbie, will panic by even a slightest opposite movement to the trade.

well I guess there are different ways of looking at things.
I trust only one thing. And that is what the market is doing. I hold my strategies and tactics loosely and they are subject to immediate change without any panic. And I think it is the height of ignorance to wait for my SL to be hit. But then I am a discretionary trader with a tool box full of strategies and techniques for whatever phase the market is in. If a skill saw isn’t working I will throw it back into the toolbox and grab a saws-all. If a phillips head screwdriver doesn’t work I will grab a flathead regardless of the screw. I am a pragmatic trader and will change on a dime to what will work. I view the markets as uncertain but with directional bias based upon pressures that I think I discern that are operating in the market and within likely resolutions based upon probability. I realize I can be wrong in anything about the markets and am willing to change my mind in the middle of a trade. I don’t need certainty. I don’t need the market to fulfill my plan or my strategies. I want to make money and will change ANYTHING about my plan at ANYTIME the markets indicate I probably should because my original premise is wrong. I realize I generally have about a 55% to 60% chance of being right. That means I can be wrong 40% or more. There are brief moments that probability goes to 80% or 90% but it is very brief and cannot last long.

On the other hand newbies indoctrinated by the gurus stick to a plan come hell or high water and most fail. BS like “never move your SL” “never jump out of a trade” “always trade with the trend” “never second guess your plan” these and many others are all nonsense, fallacies, myths, and in some cases idiotic. The market can have a good strong bull trend and one is content to ride it and before he can get up to take a piss an institution can step in front of that trend and turns it on a dime with a strong reversal that eats up all the profits the trader had in that trend and gets him underwater before he can sit back down in the chair and get his finger on the keyboard. That reversal can be minor or major and it behooves a trader to keep his eye on the larger and immediate context to ascertain the probabilities of it being minor or major.

This is trading not investing. Traders trade. Some can’t operate in a sea of uncertainty and their plans and trade structure gives them a psychological sense of stability and certainty so they cling to them and follow them to the letter (if they are disciplined to do so) then wonder why they keep losing. If someone is gonna trade they best make haste to quickly dispense with any feeling of certainty.

Here is something to try on a sim. Do your best to take losing trades all day and at the end of the day see if you are any better off than trading the way you thought the market was or should go. In other words, if your mind tells you go long here this will probably work,instead short it. If your mind tells you go short, instead go long.

The markets are uncertain. That is the only certainty.

 

[userque]

%%
Good points on probability.There is a reason they call it weather forcasting, not weather predicting...

Another silly debate by those, (unbelievably), not understanding that a prediction doesn't imply 100% certainty; and that, there is no difference between a prediction, and a forecast, in the context of financial markets.

 

[volpri]

Another silly debate by those, (unbelievably), not understanding that a prediction doesn't imply 100% certainty; and that, there is no difference between a prediction, and a forecast, in the context of financial markets.

A prediction is saying what you think WILL happen. Probability is assigning likelihood to it happening. Possibility is recognizing it could happen or not happen.

 

[userque]

A prediction is saying what you think WILL happen. Probability is assigning likelihood to it happening. Possibility is recognizing it could happen or not happen.

I'm not really going to debate something so silly, but I will essentially repeat what others here have already said.

If your system gives a LONG signal. It is forecasting "UP." Nothing complicated.

Now, your system's telemetry (for automated systems) may indicate a 51% probability of UP, or a 75% probability of UP; but the bottom line is that the forecast is UP. The prediction is UP.

If you believe your system doesn't forecast direction, then trade and post real-time the opposite of each signal and we'll see how that works out.

 

[maxinger]

anticipation vs prediction




anticipation
/antɪsɪˈpeɪʃ(ə)n/
noun
noun: anticipation; plural noun: anticipations

1. the action of anticipating something; expectation or prediction.
   "her eyes sparkled with anticipation"
   synonyms: expectation, prediction, forecast;
   rareprolepsis

 

[lovethetrade]

LOL I do not agree. The reason traders blow up is they DO NOT look ahead. Successful traders have something or someone

Anyway not trying to be antagonistic but just presenting another way of looking at this.

How about you show us how you look ahead into the future to place your trades and we’ll give you an estimate of the time it will take to blow up your leveredged account.

That way we can avoid any confusion as to what we’re talking about.

 

[ironchef]

I am the only newbie on this thread, trying to predict if my next trade will be profitable.

 

[maxinger]

Newbie strugging trader makes prediction.

Successful trader reacts to what they see.