Can i fart in this thread?
Yes you can.
It is your choice.
You can fart in front of the mic in public place too.
Can i fart in this thread?
newbie - he tries to predict the market
successful trader - he has already given up predicting the market
newbie - he aims for higher accuracy
successful trader - he aims for mediocre accuracy
newbie - he tries to predict the market
successful trader - he has already given up predicting the market
newbie - he aims for higher accuracy
successful trader - he aims for mediocre accuracy
Yep here we go again.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1m I would not predict a win.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:100 I would not predict a win.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1 I would predict a win but trading is not 1:1.
If there is a trade with a chance of winning with unknown odds' I would not predict a win.
In actual fact atm my win rate is about 1:2 in a bull market.
Even when holding for several days or longer my win rate remains 1:2 however it's because I sell losers so my loss rate can remain high, once sold a loss is forever a loss on my ledger.
When I place a trade I never predict, like a shotgun one pellet may hit the target, the others are just collateral which is lost in order to make an indescriminate gain by the unknown winner.
That's why trading is not about predicting, well it never is for me.
When I trade I don't expect a win and when I have a loss I am not surprised nor dissapointed.
%%When you go long you're predicting the market will go up. To be more precise, you are predicting the probability of a rise is greater than a probability of a fall (let's assume we're not trading options, which obviously complicates things). You are not making a "point forecast" - that the price will definitely go up. If that was the case you would be committing all of your capital plus everything you could borrow to the trade, which I assume you are not.
GAT
newbie - he tries to predict the market
successful trader - he has already given up predicting the market
newbie - he aims for higher accuracy
successful trader - he aims for mediocre accuracy
Yep here we go again.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1m I would not predict a win.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:100 I would not predict a win.
If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1 I would predict a win but trading is not 1:1.
If there is a trade with a chance of winning with unknown odds' I would not predict a win.
In actual fact atm my win rate is about 1:2 in a bull market.
Even when holding for several days or longer my win rate remains 1:2 however it's because I sell losers so my loss rate can remain high, once sold a loss is forever a loss on my ledger.
When I place a trade I never predict, like a shotgun one pellet may hit the target, the others are just collateral which is lost in order to make an indescriminate gain by the unknown winner.
That's why trading is not about predicting, well it never is for me.
When I trade I don't expect a win and when I have a loss I am not surprised nor dissapointed.
%% Exactly.The Book of Revelations is about predictions.
The Book of Trading is about probabilities, game theory.

. I did notice Blair Hull moved from blackjack to trading so cant really argue much on that. I never called any of my accounts LTG; Line to God . But if i sold my business to GS for >$500 million as he did ,that could be a ''game '' changer . NOT a prediction.newbie - he tries to predict the market
successful trader - he has already given up predicting the market
newbie - he aims for higher accuracy
successful trader - he aims for mediocre accuracy