Did Today's Market Make you More Bullish/Bearish?

Quote from reno4nook:

Down days on Friday followed by further weakness on Monday are historically bearish if I am correct.
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At first, I think this statement is of no reason. But after I simply run an analysis. It shows the bearish trend is so obvious on Monday following a down Friday for DOW and NASDAQ.

For NASDAQ since 1984, here is the up day rate from Monday to Friday without considering the previous day up or down:
day of week up-day-rate
Mon 50.33%
Tue 52.08%
Wed 59.34%
Thu 58.06%
Fri 57.57%

So, the best days in order is Wed, Thu, Fri, Tue and Mon for NASDAQ.

Following a down day, the winning rate of the week days are:

Mon 38.43%
Tue 49.91%
Wed 56.06%
Thu 51.29%
Fri 49.58%

So, it is funny to see Monday is bearish following a down Friday.

Consider DOW, the result is similar but the percentage is not that big as compared with NASDAQ index. They are more close to 50% mark.

Following a down day, DOW index since 1970 of the weekdays historically show the winning rate (up day percentage):

Mon 46.80%
Tue 51.69%
Wed 53.43%
Thu 49.58%
Fri 47.37%
 
Quote from traderdragon2:

You might want to re-run those numbers for the last 5 years and see how they compare. I bet you see some real changes.
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You are right. Here you get the stats from Jan 1, 2002

up day rate of NASDAQ following a down day:
Mon 50.41%
Tue 55.74%
Wed 57.81%
Thu 52.89%
Fri 50.79%

up day rate of DOW following a down day:
Mon 57.63%
Tue 56.39%
Wed 60.63%
Thu 50.00%
Fri 50.77%

Wed is always the best.

enjoy
 
Quote from a529612:

Doesn't Monday's trading usually set the tone for the rest of the week?
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Statistically, this is wrong. The testing result is somewhat opposite.

For NASDAQ, if Monday is down, the rest of the week from Tue to Fri, the chance of up is 59.21%. If Monday is up, the chance of the rest of the week going up is actual lower at 56.64%. For DOW, the result is similar.

So, do not bet on the claim of Monday setting the tone of the week.
 
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