Did Seahawks Pass Protect the book imbalance?

J

jem

Remember this....

How much money would Vegas have lost if the hawks won by 3?

http://www.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-super-bowl-point-spread-2015-1

With 12 days to go before the Super Bowl, there is no favorite to win the big game. But it didn't start out that way, and that could spell disaster for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Shortly after the New England Patriots completed their destruction of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game, the 2015 Super Bowl opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5- or 3-point favorites, depending on where you looked.

However, in the first 24 hours of betting, the line fell all the way to a pick 'em (no favorite), a surprisingly big move for a point spread and a rare miss by Las Vegas.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-super-bowl-point-spread-2015-1#ixzz3Qbr4UBtb
 
I had the Seahawks over 24, so my Sunday was a push. You couldn't just run it across for me? If we don't make it, at least we gave it the good old college try. The receiver looked like he was in a Walmart staring at a markdown sell sign and accidently bumped into a another customer who just happened to be a defender.
 
jem said:
Remember this....

How much money would Vegas have lost if the hawks won by 3?

http://www.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-super-bowl-point-spread-2015-1

With 12 days to go before the Super Bowl, there is no favorite to win the big game. But it didn't start out that way, and that could spell disaster for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Shortly after the New England Patriots completed their destruction of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game, the 2015 Super Bowl opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5- or 3-point favorites, depending on where you looked.

However, in the first 24 hours of betting, the line fell all the way to a pick 'em (no favorite), a surprisingly big move for a point spread and a rare miss by Las Vegas.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-super-bowl-point-spread-2015-1#ixzz3Qbr4UBtb
More...
If the Hawks won by 3 Vegas would have cleaned up.
You're reading the line move the wrong way.
Seahawks -3 was bet down to Pats -1. Everyone who had the Patriots+2.5, 2, 1, even, -1 would have lost

Vegas got smoked on the SB
 
It's scary how good the linesmakers are. if Seattle punches it in there at the end, they win by 3, right on the initial number. It's always a challenge to get the number right. Conventional wisdom has it that the line is set to even out the betting, which makes sense. It's kind of like a beauty contest judge voting for the contestant he thinks the crowd favors, which was keynes analogy of the stock market.

That was why the initial line surprised me. Boston is a heavy betting town, far more than the Frazier and Niles Crane Seattle crowd. The Pats are a national team. The Seahawks, even as defending SB champs, not so much. I expected the line to shade in the Pats favor at the getgo. Instead, it was widely viewed, wrongly as it turned out, as way out of whack in favor of Seattle.

Conventional betting wisdom is to go with a line move. When the line tightened in favor of Boston, that would generally be seen as smart money moving the line. Maybe on a SB, the sheer volume of dumb money being bet changes that calculus however.

Of course, if Brady hadn't thrown those two picks, particularly the first one on the goal line, and the refs don't blow that roughing the kicker penalty, the Pats may have cruised to an easy win.

It was a great game and it's too bad that Butler's fantastic INT is getting lost in the derision directed at Seattle.
 
after reading what you wrote... I don't even remember what I was thinking at the time. I was thinking about the hole in their books... but I can't remember what I was thinking if the game ended on the initial number.


Clubber Lang said:
If the Hawks won by 3 Vegas would have cleaned up.
You're reading the line move the wrong way.
Seahawks -3 was bet down to Pats -1. Everyone who had the Patriots+2.5, 2, 1, even, -1 would have lost

Vegas got smoked on the SB
More...
 
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Someone this morning floated the notion that the reason for the throw was they didn't want Lynch scoring, likely getting MVP and having him do another press conference like he did earlier in the week. Wilson is the better story. The NFL did not want more drama.
 
JamesL said:
Someone this morning floated the notion that the reason for the throw was they didn't want Lynch scoring, likely getting MVP and having him do another press conference like he did earlier in the week. Wilson is the better story. The NFL did not want more drama.
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it would have been the most watched interview in history
 
loyek590 said:
it would have been the most watched interview in history
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Could you imagine Marshawn Lynch "going to Disney World"??
The NFL and Disney would be shitting themselves the whole time waiting for the PR nightmare he might cause.
Oh, and let's not forget the late night talk show circuit for the Super Bowl MVP.

Damn, now I kind of wish he punched it in. LOL
 
I'm not sure of many things, but I am 100% sure that keeping lynch from being the hero was the furtherest thing from the Seahawk's coachs' minds.

They gave him the ball on the previous play and he came within inches of scoring. Duhhh. I know there are people who will say just anything to get on TV, but don't the producers have some responsibility to keep it within the bounds of sanity?
 
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