Did Niederhoffer Lie To Baron?

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Emilio_Lizardo:

Good detective work, but how do you know that was Vic. He wasn't the only one unwinding on the 8th. Over the 7th, 8th, and 9th, the typical stat arb fund experienced about a 15 sigma hit. The short OTM index puts strat was used by some of these funds as a putatively low risk yield enhancer. How do you know that the drop was not due to these funds reducing exposure?

I was told what months and strikes Vic was in.

The guy's you're talking about generally don't sell puts 500 points out of the money. Also they'd be more likely to be trading SPX than options on S&P futures.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Pekelo:

Otherwise why is it so hard to believe that he simply just lost the investors' confidence??

Losing that is just about as bad as losing the money.

This business, after all, is more than just about OPM. It is about OPA, the "A" standing for adulation.

 

[satchel]

Quote from spike500:

If Vic took the effort to call Baron, why couldn't he at the same time give his recent performance?
All the speculations would be gone as well as the negative publicity.

But this would only be true if the performance was good or a reasonable loss (even the best CTA has losing months, that's no shame). If he really lost huge money it is understandable that he doesn't give any information at all.

The only person that is responsible for the gossip, and the only person that can stop the gossip is Vic.
Why doesn't he take action to do so?

Because this back-fence talk, effectively has been banned to chit chat dungeon (one has to really try to find this place, so why bother).

An alternative is to label threads in the news forum with "Rumor", although that is in itself provoking.

Is a rumor such as this much different than rumors on Google gPhone, or the Goldman rumor on neg Q3 earnings a while back, or even Steve Jobs health, or (whatever).

We should be able to discuss, within reason (ahah! Full Circle, reason = Baron).

 

[Emilio_Lizardo]

Quote from smilingsynic:

It is about OPA, the "A" standing for adulation.

Especially for Vic. Anyone reading even a few pages of "Education of a Speculator" will realize that the author is a seriously disturbed individual. Fodder for a David Reisman or a Christopher Lasch, if we had such social commentators in this day.

This is the end for Vic. Expect him to follow the same path as that other famous Randian, Mike Mentzer, after a similar defeat. Weakness is the hallmark of the dyed-in-the-wool objectivist.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Emilio_Lizardo:

Especially for Vic. Anyone reading even a few pages of "Education of a Speculator" will realize that the author is a seriously disturbed individual. Fodder for a David Reisman or a Christopher Lasch, if we had such social commentators in this day.

This is the end for Vic. Expect him to follow the same path as that other famous Randian, Mike Mentzer, after a similar defeat. Weakness is the hallmark of the dyed-in-the-wool objectivist.

Mentzer is dead. I hope you don't mean that!

 

[Emilio_Lizardo]

Quote from smilingsynic:

Mentzer is dead. I hope you don't mean that!

I was referring to his long slide into madness and absurdity between 1980 and 1990, not his death from heart failure in 2001. Mentzer's death had less to do with his breakdown and more to do with 30+ years of massive steroid (and other drug) overuse.

Mentzer did remain delusional until the end of his life and I expect the same of Vic.

 

[Businessman]

Quote from Victor Niderhoffer (Daily Speculations website):

I have in front of me an original copy of How To Trade In Stocks by Jesse Livermore...
The book is a collection of sage reflections based on the many losses and gains Livermore took, before he lost everything.It also contains 10 pages of rules as to how to record in 18 columns with black and red ink and pencil whether a stock “is in an upward trend or downward trend until a natural reaction occurs with particular reference to Pivotal Points .”
And also “…depending on how prices are recorded when the market returns to around those points, you will then be able to form an opinion as to whether the positive trend is going to be resumed in earnest, or whether the movement has ended…” With 35 nebulous rules like this, that seem the work of a madman, it is no wonder that shortly thereafter he committed the final act of suicide, thus sparing his followers from further losing much more money.."

Perhaps Vic should also spare his followers from further losses and blow his own brain out too.

 

[Trader5287]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:


My original source told me Vic was forced out the week of the discount rate cut. To verify this information I checked the volume in the far OTM puts in the back months. If you peruse most any other day you'll see that these strikes i.e. Dec/08 1100, don't trade. Ever. However on the day's in question thousands of contracts traded.

/B]

So he was sold out of an illiquid investment on the lows by his broker(s)?

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Businessman:

Perhaps Vic should also spare his followers from further losses and blow his own brain out too.

I don't read Dr. Niederhoffer's website, but I am surprised that he found Livermore so difficult to understand. Guess that Ph.D. from Chicago only takes one so far.

Actually, Livermore's rules are not that hard to figure out, and they work, as long as one follows them.

Livermore's problems were the result largely of his psychology, not his methodology.

 

[nravo]

The reporter to contact is Peter Robison robison@bloomberg.com. He is looking for information.