Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[iceman1]

Quote from shortie:

i don't believe much in trends.

i would rather make money than being right about the market. but "being right" is also rewarding psychologically (i know this could be my flaw).

Not "could" be your flaw.

It is! For all of us.

Trust me. I have been around markets 20+ years; being right is in the top 3 of flaws that rob traders of profits. It always amazes me how one trader can make the same amount holding a position for 1-3 weeks while another trades 300 times... in and out... in the same time frame. When we wake up tomorrow... say... "hmmmm, how can I profit from today's (or this week's) markets regardless what i think it should do or might do tomorrow or next week.

Maybe you will decide that doing nothing is the best trade.

Not because the market refuses to do what seems obvious or necessary per your reasons nos. 1- 10... but because your risk/reward is not to your liking.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from iceman1:

Not "could" be your flaw.

It is! For all of us.

Trust me. I have been around markets 20+ years; being right is in the top 3 of flaws that rob traders of profits. It always amazes me how one trader can make the same amount holding a position for 1-3 weeks while another trades 300 times... in and out... in the same time frame. When we wake up tomorrow... say... "hmmmm, how can I profit from today's (or this week's) markets regardless what i think it should do or might do tomorrow or next week.

Maybe you will decide that doing nothing is the best trade.

Not because the market refuses to do what seems obvious or necessary per your reasons nos. 1- 10... but because your risk/reward is not to your liking.

Those who shorted two weeks ago were following the then down trend. Those who went long were fading the then down trend....

What is your answer to that?

If your answer is something like reverse it, then when do you do that, and when is it that a new trend is established.

Trends are known in hindsight.

For the record, I am forecasting that SPY is not likely to go beyond 137. It is a fade of current trend. The future will reveal what those who are just ridding (after they have notice a "trend" would get on the long side).

Shortie was bullish at the latest bottom. In that thread he received the well known comment on ET, do not fade the trend. And now that it is up he is receiving similar comments--- just sides and time has changed.

Maybe the comment about trends that may be worth something is that if one has a position one may want to stay with it because it can go more than one expects.

 

[iceman1]

look at it this way:

the risk/reward increase in the minds and models (and hearts -lol) of some traders as the market becomes over-extended in one direction. What I was taught is to decide if I believe we have a "healthy" trend or another FAUX trend that is the result of the 'media' or others: "blowing Greek smoke up everyone's rectums"- LOL

Further there are those who like to be early to a party or must be early to a party, in order to get sufficient liquidity to execute their contrary plan.

Hope I am making sense.

 

[iceman1]

what I meant is:

the risk/reward of a 'reversal' or pullback increases........


what I was taught at CME was to look for a topping pattern such as a key reversal. Now, maybe that's old school and maybe things have changed in the markets. Has human nature changed in past 2 decades???

llol

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

refuses to go down. but maybe it will be eod, don't know...

SPY 133.67

p.s. any reliable quantitative model predictions for today?

133.42 after seeing 134.08, can't say it would have been a great entry but was not a terrible one either.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from shortie:

133.42 after seeing 134.08, can't say it would have been a great entry but was not a terrible one either.

so you made a few pennies going contrary to trend... good job.

what would have been your profit IF you had gotten on board last Tuesday.. and held until today, with stops?

bonne chance

 

[shortie]

i was Long BEFORE Tue and made some coins. i did not make a lot because i started building my Long incrementally somewhat early, so i took some heat. then i started to exit incrementally as the up-move was developing so by Thur Close I was out. this is the best I can do. I still made money and happy with what i could get.

will try to catch this turn lower or be stopped out in the process. let's see.

 

[Locutus]

Maybe I'm seeing things, but I find it funny how news that people can create at an arbitrary time often comes out exactly as a breakout is about to occur.

For example today with the downgrade, it was exactly at the previous intraday high from last friday.

Also when in Europe it was about to break down into another leg lower the 17th everyone started suddenly to make comments on how everything was gonna be great. I really like the timing of these people, they coincide with technical support and resistance often for some reason.

 

[Blotto]

Quote from J-Law:



No doubt about it. Walk into any prop firm. There is always one guy that has pulled off that feat. He's usually in a room away from the other traders behind a glass window etc etc.
But, that type of trader is 1 in 50. He is the exception. His/her skill set and edge are tight/mesh well, or is a natural with taking risk, and breakthrough where others struggle.
The rest of the 49 are somewhere along the distribution of profitable, break-even to habitual loser. The 7 figure trader is what the rest of the room aspire to be.

That type of performance although admirable is far from the norm. Most of the other 49 know that as well.

Additionally, Bone is dead on right about the power of future spreads Span performance bond margining. It ratchets up the possible return on capital and on a instrument that has
Significantly less risk than an outright with flat price directional exposure.
Also, Exchange membership even sweetens that arrangement in providing a further discounting of margin. Most professional commodity traders, former floor traders, whether trading the physical, OTC or exchange traded products are either in the spreads or at least looking at a differential between some products for a bearing for market outlook. The Span requirements can make for some pretty powerful opportunities for profit.

Here speaks one of the few. Good post.

Bone, I understand your points but you are trying to make water run uphill. Those who cannot think outside the box will not usually listen when pointed in an alternative direction. This is good for you and your clients - the more lemmings taking directional risk and trying to time tops and bottoms, the less competition you have in your area.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from iceman1:

so you made a few pennies going contrary to trend... good job.

what would have been your profit IF you had gotten on board last Tuesday.. and held until today, with stops?

bonne chance

Few pennies? Small as a rain drop? Rivers are made from rain drops. The pennies came from the bulls who may have read bullshit such as follow the trend.