Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[tradingjournals]

Quote from Locutus:

Right. London doesn't matter eh?

No it does not matter---It used to, but they are now broke. The only countries who would really matter in Europe are: Russia (military and natural resources/land) Germany (hard work), Poland (rising), and Turkey (young). France is like an old bitch who does not understand she is in her seventies.

In addition the bailout of Greece is not a bailout of Greeks, but a bailout of a europe banks. The need for a bailout suggests they are weak, otherwise they could have written off the bad debt.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from shortie:

i don't look at BB per se. i look at several different things and try to integrate them. it is not a clearly defined system and i run into troubles periodically with this type of an approach.

i stay by my guess that there is a good chance of a reversal from this level.

I think it is a good guess. I like fading spikes but this run had serious momentum so I think a safer trade is to fade a pullback within a trend reversal. Less likely to get burned. Another favorite is the gap up after a good exuberant run. Starting with a new relative high where you get a steamroller effect from gap faders, followed by(f/b) profit-takers, f/b new shorts, then trend followers. This can roll-on for days to weeks as we saw the first week of May.

 

[shortie]

refuses to go down. but maybe it will be eod, don't know...

SPY 133.67

p.s. any reliable quantitative model predictions for today?

 

[iceman1]

Quote from shortie:

This is certainly a great market for those who can catch these monster turns.
Just a few days ago it was "the end of civilization" due to the Greek crisis. By now we have put up 5 monster Up days.
So what is exactly that we are witnessing here:
a relief rally?
Short covering?
end of quarter rally, first of the month rally?
is Greek news only now fully baked in?
is the market expecting even more good news soon?

could the market re-test the lows again or was it just a bad dream for Longs?
Is it safe to Short now? Oscillators show overbought (e.g. SPY RSI(5)=84).
VIX has totally collapsed and touched 15, the level we saw during Feb Top, but still not as low as Apr Top.

what has never ceased to amaze me since the 80s is how there are always those who post on forums about when an uptrend or downtrend could or might reverse or end... such that they can now take the contrary approach. It is simply amazing the human nature of the markets and some "traders" or investors. Meanwhile they have sat there tying to be smarter than the market with sarcastic comments and blame of the media etc. etc.

Did you ever stop once to think, to ponder... "Uh, duh... UMmmm, hmmmm .... why don't I just go with THIS trend NOW.... worry about when to exit or take profits later??

Never mind, after two decades I know the answer... because you would (and all other similar posters) rather show the markets that they are smart(er)... rather than make money............. nope they are not going to get caught buying at the top or selling at the bottom.

Am I right (am I close??)

If I am not right, what is your point then? What do you get out of analyzing all the T/Q etc. trying to determine when a trend will reverse?

Just curious??

 

[Rickshaw Man]

They are using the Greek saga as a way to game the markets.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from shortie:

refuses to go down. but maybe it will be eod, don't know...

Do the market(s) actually have emotions? Like a person? OK.

So now I get it ----- the markets "refuse" to go down (or up). LOL

Like a kid who "refuses" to get into bed? The kid "should" get into bed. But refuses to.

Like markets that "refuse" to go down!! Damn those markets are stubborn ! Never do what some trader(s) and their T/A says it "should" do!

 

[anglagard]

I don't think trend matters as much as it used to in the past.

It's more momentum now.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Quote from bone:

Nobody seems to be able to trade Bollinger Bands correctly.

Amazing.

Every retail punter wants a level to fade.

Pivots.
Channels.
Wave Counts.
Volatility Bands.
Fibonacci.
The list is long.

Fading is a sickness.

Your right it is a sickness, just look at the ES thread and that guy ammo.

 

[shortie]

i don't believe much in trends.

i would rather make money than being right about the market. but "being right" is also rewarding psychologically (i know this could be my flaw).

with trends i just have not found a reliable way to trade with them. if i find it someday, i will trend trade without hesitation. since i don't have a method like that, why should i try to follow a trend (that may not even exist)?

 

[bone]

Quote from iceman1:

what has never ceased to amaze me since the 80s is how there are always those who post on forums about when an uptrend or downtrend could or might reverse or end... such that they can now take the contrary approach. It is simply amazing the human nature of the markets and some "traders" or investors. Meanwhile they have sat there tying to be smarter than the market with sarcastic comments and blame of the media etc. etc.

Yep, it is a human condition - fight the markets because you are correct and the market is wrong. 90 % of the traders I meet who have gotten wounded or killed in the markets were trying to time a top or bottom. It is definitely an ego/ID type of thing.