Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[bone]

Quote from NoDoji:

A real-time example of this is frequently demonstrated in the ES Journal when emg announces a level at which he plans to go short or long for 1 point of profit and that price is usually 5 or more points away. His hit rate is phenomenal.

Anyone needs to make consistent profits, just take the opposite side of his planned trade at the time he announces it and make his entry your profit target.

And maybe that is why 98 % of retail traders lose. They just do !

( I've always been curious where he ranks himself )

 

[anglagard]

Quote from bone:

Nobody seems to be able to trade Bollinger Bands correctly.

Amazing.

Every retail punter wants a level to fade.

Pivots.
Channels.
Wave Counts.
Volatility Bands.
Fibonacci.
The list is long.

Fading is a sickness.

And no sponsor seems to be able to make enough strictly from trading

 

[shortie]

Quote from anglagard:

And no sponsor seems to be able to make enough strictly from trading

let's be nice here please. i want to keep this thread clean. as long as bone provides some useful info from his two decades of experience he is entitled to throw in a few ads. i think that's fair.

 

[bone]

Quote from anglagard:

And no sponsor seems to be able to make enough strictly from trading

Well, since I transitioned from HF to swing trading a few years ago my original thought was that I would need something else to do with the time and energy normally spent staring at the screen and engaged in a white-knuckle ride. There was also the assumption at that time that my trading income would fall off and that the client fees would partially compensate. I was correct regarding clients taking up the time and focus element, I am pleasantly surprised (shocked actually) at the net results for the differential between HF and swing trading.

Net loser is clearly Nymex, ICE, Eurex, Liffe, and the FCMs.

 

[bone]

Quote from shortie:



let's be nice here please. i want to keep this thread clean. as long as bone provides some useful info from his two decades of experience he is entitled to throw in a few ads. i think that's fair.

Oh, I think he has a point. I am taking fewer clients than I used to because the net P&L on the swing trading versus the HF approach has frankly shocked me a bit. The clients I am taking on tend to more experienced and accomplished and less of a pain-in-the-ass for me. The other aspect is that I want to have access to trading talent that I am familiar with in terms of performance and game for a future endeavor.

 

[Low Roller]

I'm trying to figure out what HF is.

I'm usually kinda good with acronyms. Hedge Fund?

 

[failed_trad3r]

I'm long.

I have news that they will increase debt ceiling by 2 trillion next month. Markets already reacting to this news in advance.

Shorts will get CRUSHED.

S&P 1600 in a year is possible.

 

[shortie]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

I'm long.

I have news that they will increase debt ceiling by 2 trillion next month. Markets already reacting to this news in advance.

Shorts will get CRUSHED.

S&P 1600 in a year is possible.

you are confused. they are raising debt ceiling, not S&P ceiling.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from bone:

I personally know a group in Evanston that leases Apama for like $18K per month, and their entire strategy is based upon fading certain market moves on a highly conditional and rules-based regime. They staff their desk 24 hours per day, and are constantly scanning the newswires and markets in real time. That group obviously has the science behind fading moves in terms of metrics and rules well organized and to a large degree automated in terms of injecting orders into certain market conditions once established rules are satisfied. They appear to do OK, but certainly not exceptional.

On the other hand, I have seen a certain percentage of traders who simply cannot do anything other than fade moves and add along the way. It is truly a psychological condition - they are going to buy into a sell-off or sell into a rally. That is the only way their brains are wired: fight the market. And from my observations over the years, the eventual outcome - in five weeks, five months, or five years, is ultimately never pretty.

Well, since the S&p is a broad based index, is it less likely to trend compared to commodities and currencies. So a reversion to the mean is more likely. That said, the last 2 years were abnormally trendy for the S&P.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

I'm long.

I have news that they will increase debt ceiling by 2 trillion next month. Markets already reacting to this news in advance.

Shorts will get CRUSHED.

S&P 1600 in a year is possible.

RAWR!!!!!